3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jan 2016 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/03/2016   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2016 (659,600 movements) increased 0.9% when compared with December 2015 (653,900 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 11.2% higher than in January 2015.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: short-term visitor arrivals, last ten years, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2016. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for January 2015 and January 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (35.1%), followed by South Korea (23.8%), and Japan (18.3%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - January 2016

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec '15 to Jan '16
Jan '15 to Jan '16
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

China
102.7
102.7
114.3
2.1
35.1
New Zealand
112.8
116.2
89.1
0.8
6.4
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
59.0
59.1
71.8
0.8
6.1
United States of America
55.4
54.6
51.8
1.3
14.0
Korea, South
22.6
21.5
28.6
3.0
23.8
Japan
31.1
31.6
24.6
1.6
18.3
Germany
16.3
16.5
17.7
0.1
2.9
India
19.4
19.3
15.9
-0.1
1.4
Singapore
35.0
34.4
15.7
0.2
13.7
Canada
12.1
12.6
15.6
1.7
-0.6

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The February 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than January 2016.
      2 The February 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than January 2016.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: revisions to short-term visitor arrivals trend estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during January 2016 (818,500 movements) increased 0.7% when compared with December 2015 (812,600 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 6.4% higher than in January 2015.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: short-term resident departures, last ten years, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in January 2016. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for January 2015 and January 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Japan (27.4%), followed by India (13.8%), and Fiji (11.6%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Thailand (6.3%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - January 2016

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec '15 to Jan '16
Jan '15 to Jan '16
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
109.9
109.5
118.8
1.0
5.7
Indonesia
100.1
102.4
101.0
1.8
7.9
United States of America
87.3
89.7
73.3
0.7
5.4
Japan
28.9
27.4
44.2
0.8
27.4
Thailand
43.3
43.3
40.2
-2.1
-6.3
India
26.4
26.5
36.0
3.2
13.8
China
36.5
35.9
32.2
0.9
7.1
Singapore
31.0
31.1
30.3
0.1
2.5
Fiji
31.2
31.7
27.4
1.9
11.6
Vietnam
20.5
20.2
25.6
-0.3
5.8

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The February 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than January 2016.
      2 The February 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than January 2016.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: revisions to short-term resident departures trend estimates, Australia
The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the year 2011, there were over 14 million multiple movements accounting for 46% of all movements (see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 10,000 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during January 2016, a decrease of 10.1% compared with January 2015 (11,120 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (17.7%), followed by people born in China (15.0%), and people born in India (13.5%).

There were 13,610 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during January 2016, an increase of 13.7% compared with January 2015 (11,970 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.