3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jan 2010 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 05/03/2010   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2010 (485,400 movements) increased 0.3% when compared with December 2009 (483,800 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 4.8% higher than in January 2009.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2010. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for January 2010 and January 2009 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by the United States of America (15.8%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (6.9%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - January 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 09 to Jan 10
Jan 09 to Jan 10
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
94.6
93.6
70.8
-0.2
-0.5
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
55.6
55.6
62.8
0.2
2.1
United States of America
43.1
41.6
38.8
-0.7
15.8
China
31.7
31.4
37.2
0.2
-3.4
Japan
30.1
29.5
28.0
-0.8
-6.9
Korea
15.6
15.1
20.9
1.8
6.0
Singapore
24.5
24.5
14.7
0.6
5.2
Germany
14.2
13.6
13.9
0.6
8.7
Canada
10.8
10.8
13.3
-0.5
9.1
Hong Kong
13.4
13.5
10.1
-0.7
0.1

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The February 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than January 2010.
      2 The February 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than January 2010.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

The trend estimates series has been suspended for April 2009 and onwards. For further information please see the SUSPENSION OF SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES TREND ESTIMATES section on the NOTES page of this issue.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during January 2010.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - January 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 09 to Jan 10
Jan 09 to Jan 10
Destination countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
np
88.8
88.9
np
np
Indonesia
np
57.5
53.5
np
np
United States of America
np
48.7
43.7
np
np
Thailand
np
41.8
38.9
np
np
Fiji
np
22.5
22.4
np
np
China
np
24.2
21.1
np
np
Japan
np
13.9
19.8
np
np
Malaysia
np
17.7
19.2
np
np
Singapore
np
21.0
19.1
np
np
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
np
34.9
18.3
np
np

np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 11,470 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during January 2010, a decrease of 19.3% compared with January 2009 (14,210 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (19.7%), followed by people born in the UK, CIs & IOM (12.3%), China and India (each 10.1%).

There were 11,700 Australian residents who departed permanently from Australia during January 2010, an increase of 6.0% compared with January 2009 (11,040 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.