3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Feb 2017 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/04/2017   
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MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during February 2017 (713,500 movements) increased 0.3% when compared with January 2017 (711,600 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 7.7% higher than in February 2016.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Short-Term Visitor Arrivals, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during February 2017. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for February 2016 and February 2017 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for India (16.9%), followed by China (8.9%), and Germany (8.2%). The only percentage decrease was recorded for Singapore (-1.8%).



Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - February 2017

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jan '17 to Feb '17
Feb '16 to Feb '17
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

China
106.4
103.2
142.2
0.3
8.9
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
62.6
65.1
87.1
1.5
6.7
New Zealand
113.1
113.1
82.4
0.1
3.6
United States of America
60.7
60.0
74.1
-0.5
7.3
Japan
36.0
35.1
41.3
0.2
8.1
Korea, South
24.6
24.0
29.8
-0.4
5.9
Singapore
35.5
37.2
27.2
-0.4
-1.8
Malaysia
31.6
32.9
26.9
-0.9
3.8
India
23.5
24.7
25.8
0.6
16.9
Germany
17.8
17.5
22.8
0.4
8.2

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The March 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than February 2017.
      2 The March 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than February 2017.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STVA Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during February 2017 (837,300 movements) increased 0.3% when compared with January 2017 (834,600 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 3.2% higher than in February 2016.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Short-Term Resident Departures, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in February 2017. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for February 2016 and February 2017 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Singapore (15.8%), followed by Japan (8.9%), and the United Kingdom (6.4%).The highest percentage decreases were recorded for Indonesia (-6.5%) and Thailand (-3.6%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - February 2017

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jan '17 to Feb '17
Feb '16 to Feb '17
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
112.8
112.1
115.5
0.1
3.9
Indonesia
97.5
98.3
71.4
-0.4
-6.5
United States of America
88.2
88.2
55.6
-0.1
1.8
Japan
32.2
33.4
35.6
0.8
8.9
Thailand
42.4
42.1
34.3
0.2
-3.6
Singapore
34.9
35.6
29.1
2.2
15.8
India
27.4
27.0
25.3
0.2
5.5
China
38.7
34.2
22.4
-1.0
3.9
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
52.9
52.7
19.1
1.5
6.4
Vietnam
20.9
22.7
18.6
0.6
4.5

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The March 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than February 2017 .
      2 The March 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than February 2017 .

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STRD Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.