FEATURE ARTICLE: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENTS, ITALY


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series for Italy. Over the ten year period to March 2008 trend estimates have shown strong periods of growth and decline, with a period of decline again evident from April 2007. The number of movements at the beginning (3,900 movements) and end of the ten year series (4,100 movements) remained similar. The high point in the series was March 2000 (4,700 movements) and the low point was in December 2001 (3,000 movements). Currently, the number of movements in March 2008 (4,100 movements) is 10% lower than in March 2007 and 7% higher than in March 1998.

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. The graph below shows that over the ten years ending March 2008 a number of large variations were evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia from Italy. While providing specific reasons for all variations in travel from Italy is not possible, some variations can be associated with events occurring in Australia and others with general trends in international travel coinciding with world events. For example, the September 2000 increase in short-term visitor arrivals could be associated with the Olympic Games being held in Sydney, Australia. Additionally, during the ten year period there were a number of world events that may have contributed to a downturn in travel to Australia from Italy. Examples include, the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States of America, the anticipation and commencement of hostilities in Iraq and the outbreak of SARS in Asia (both commencing in early 2003).

In original terms, in the year ended March 2008 short-term visitor arrivals from Italy represented 0.9% (52,400 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. This proportion was the same as in the previous 12 months ended March 2007 (53,200 movements) and lower than in the 12 months ended March 1998 (1.1%, or 46,900 movements).

In the year ended March 2008, the highest proportion of short-term visitor arrivals from Italy stated holiday (57%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (17%) and business (10%). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (50%), visiting friends and relatives (21%) and business (12%). The median age of short-term visitors from Italy was 35 years (39 years for all short-term visitor arrivals), and the median duration of stay was 21 days (10 days for all short-term visitor arrivals).

New South Wales (41%), Victoria (25%), Western Australia (14%) and Queensland (12%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitor arrivals from Italy in the year ended March 2008. The main destinations for all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia were New South Wales (39%), Queensland (27%), Victoria (18%) and Western Australia (10%).


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series for Italy. During the ten year period ending March 2008, the trend estimate series has shown significant fluctuations. Overall, the trend has increased strongly with the number of movements more than doubling in the ten year period. The high point in the series was the current month (March 2008, 10,000 movements) and the low point was in March 1998 (4,800 movements).

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. The graph below shows that over the ten years ending March 2008 a number of large variations were evident for short-term resident departures of Australian residents to Italy. As with the short-term visitor arrivals seasonally adjusted series, specific reasons for the variations in movements are not clear but some are possibly associated with the world events that influenced international travel, e.g. the anticipation and commencement of hostilities in Iraq in early 2003, and the Winter Olympics held in Turin, Italy in February 2006.

In original terms, in the year ended March 2008 short-term resident departures to Italy represented 2.1% (115,900 movements) of all short-term resident departures from Australia. This was the same as the proportion for the previous 12 months ended March 2007 (107,800 movements) and slightly higher than for the 12 months ended March 1998 (2.0%, or 60,300 movements).

In the year ended March 2008, the highest proportion of short-term resident departures to Italy stated holiday (68%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (16%) and business (6%). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term residents departing Australia were holiday (50%), visiting friends and relatives (24%) and business (14%). The median age of short-term resident departures to Italy was 48 years (42 years for all short-term resident departures), and the median duration of stay was 30 days (15 days for all short-term resident departures).