3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2002 to 2101
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/09/2003
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About these Projections
FERTILITY Summary There are three assumptions proposed for Australia's future TFR: high (1.8); medium (1.6); and low (1.4). The trend towards older ages of mothers at birth of children is assumed to continue under all scenarios, while the sex ratio at birth is assumed to be 105.5 male births per 100 female births. Assumptions for these three aspects of fertility at lower geographic levels are derived from current differentials between Australia and each state/ territory, and between each state/territory and its capital city/balance of state. Trends in the total fertility rate In 1961, at the height of the 'baby boom', Australia's TFR peaked at 3.5 babies per woman. Since then, fertility has declined, falling sharply during the early 1960s as the oral contraceptive pill became more widely available, before hovering at 2.9 babies per woman in the years 1966–1971. The reinterpretation of abortion law in New South Wales in 1971 in the case of R v Wall et al., had a substantial impact on women's ability to control their fertility. Subsequently a fall in births to young women contributed to a further decrease in the TFR and an increase in the median age of mothers. The TFR reached replacement level (2.1) in 1976, and continued to fall as increasing numbers of women chose to delay or forego having children. Fertility stabilised somewhat during the 1980s, before resuming a more gradual decline during the 1990s. The TFR fell from 1.9 babies per woman in 1990, to 1.8 by 1995. At 1.73 babies per woman, the TFR for 2001 is the lowest on record. Assumed total fertility rates The three assumptions for Australia's future levels of fertility are made in the context of recent trends in the TFR, especially those of the last decade. The high fertility scenario assumes that the TFR will reach 1.8 babies per woman by 2011 and then remain constant, reflecting the fact that fertility has fluctuated between 1.7 and 1.9 babies per woman since the late 1970s. The high fertility scenario acknowledges the possibility that the TFR could stabilise in the middle of this range. The medium and low fertility assumptions are based on the downward trend evident in Australia's TFR over the past ten years. These scenarios assume the persistence of factors associated with declining fertility, such as delayed childbearing from increased participation of women in education and in the labour force. Further delays in childbearing may result in smaller families and increasing childlessness, both of which would lower the TFR. The medium scenario assumes a gradual continuation of the downward trend in fertility, with the TFR reaching 1.6 babies per woman by 2011, and thereafter remaining constant. This assumption reflects a fertility level already reached in some parts of Australia; Victoria, for example, recorded a TFR of 1.6 in 2001. Under the low fertility assumption, the TFR is projected to decline at a faster rate, reaching 1.4 babies per woman by 2011, then remaining constant. Fertility rates have reached such levels in many European countries, and recent projections indicate that this kind of scenario is considered a possibility in several others. Within Australia, fertility in the Australian Capital Territory is approaching such a level, with a TFR of 1.5 in 2001. Trends in age-specific fertility rates Over the past 10 years, age-specific fertility rates have been declining for the younger age groups (those below age 30 years), whilst increasing for women aged 30 years and over, representing a gradual shift in fertility towards older ages. These trends are assumed to continue under all three fertility scenarios. The impact of these trends is that the median age of women at childbirth has risen from 28.5 years in 1991 to 30.0 years in 2001. Assuming this trend continues, the median age of the fertility schedule will increase to 30.7 years by 2011 for all three fertility scenarios. State variations in fertility In recent years, TFRs for Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have been consistently lower than the rates for Australia as a whole, while TFRs in the remaining states, and in the Northern Territory in particular, have been higher than the national average. The fertility assumptions for the states and territories are derived from the national assumptions, by applying the historical differentials between each state/territory and Australia to the national assumption. It is assumed that the average state and territory fertility differentials based on the years 1999-2001 will remain constant throughout the projection period. Regional variations in fertility TFRs in Australian capital cities are generally lower than TFRs for respective states and territories, while TFRs for state balances are higher. In 2001, the TFR for Darwin was 24% below the Northern Territory's TFR, while the TFRs for Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth were 5% below their respective state levels. Fertility rates in Sydney and Melbourne were 4% lower than fertility rates in New South Wales and Victoria respectively. Fertility assumptions for the capital cities and state/territory balances are derived from the assumptions for each state/territory by applying the average differentials between the region and its respective state/territory. It is assumed that 1999-2001-based differentials between the capital city and balance within each state or territory will remain constant throughout the projection period. MORTALITY Summary For the purposes of population projections the long-term mortality assumption is that life expectancy at birth will increase from the 1999-2001 level of 77.0 years for males and 82.4 years for females to 84.2 years for males and 87.7 years for females in 2050-51. An alternative assumption is that life expectancy at birth will increase to 92.2 years for males and 95.0 years for females in 2050-51. Assumptions for mortality at lower geographic levels are based on 1999-2001 differentials between Australia and each state/territory, and between each state/territory and its capital city/balance of state. Trends in life expectancy at birth Since 1901-1910, male life expectancy at birth has increased from 55.2 years to 77.0 years in 1999-2001. Over the same period female life expectancy at birth has increased from 58.8 years to 82.4 years. The increase in life expectancy at birth in the early part of the twentieth century is primarily attributed to advances in living conditions, such as improved water supply, sewage systems, food quality and health education. The continuing increase in life expectancy at birth in the latter half of the century has mainly been attributed to improving social conditions and advances in medical technology, such as mass immunisation and antibiotics. The past two decades in particular have seen further increases in life expectancy at birth. These increases are due in part to lower infant mortality, fewer deaths among young adults from motor vehicle accidents and fewer deaths among older men from heart disease. The rate of mortality decline, as illustrated by the increase in life expectancy at birth, slowed during the 1970-1998 period. The lowest annual rate of increase, of 0.17 years for males and 0.15 years for females, was experienced between 1995-1997 and 1996-1998. Since this time, the annual improvement in life expectancy at birth has been faster, culminating in the 1999-2001 increase of 0.47 years for males and 0.37 years for females on the previous period of 1998-2000. The faster increase in male life expectancy at birth in the latter period has narrowed the gap in female to male life expectancies at birth. In 1999-2001 female life expectancy at birth exceeded that for males by 5.4 years, compared to the highest differential of 7.0 years recorded in 1980-1982. Assumed life expectancy at birth The medium mortality assumption is for male and female life expectancy at birth in the 1999-2001 period to increase by 0.30 and 0.25 years per year respectively until 2005-06. After this, life expectancy continues to increase, but at a declining rate. Based on projections to the period 2050-51, the life expectancy at birth in 2050-51 will be 84.2 years for males and 87.7 years for females. A high mortality assumption has also been produced in which male and female life expectancy at birth increase constantly by 0.30 and 0.25 years per year respectively until 2050-51, producing a life expectancy at birth of 92.2 years for males and 95.0 years for females in 2050-51. Trends in age-specific death rates Age-specific death rates have varied for different age-sex groups since the 1970s. At all ages, except possibly the very oldest, death rates for males remained higher than for females. The male-female mortality differential has narrowed due to faster declines in male death rates than female rates. Between 1970 and 2001 the fastest declines in age-specific death rates were experienced in the 0-9 years age groups for both males and females. Rapid declines in age-specific death rates were also experienced in the 10-14 years and 45-59 years age groups. Death rates of adult males aged between 25-34 years improved only slightly over the 1970-2001 period. Recent trends show an increase in the death rates of males aged 30-34 years (from 1981 to 1996) and the 35-39 years group (from 1986 to 1996). All other age-specific death rates showed consistent decreases over the 1970-2001 period, with the percentage decreases diminishing progressively in older age groups. Rate of change in age-specific death rates Under the medium mortality assumption the pattern of change in age-sex specific death rates from 1991-2001 has been assumed to continue until 2050-51. Some arbitrary adjustment was performed to the rate of change at some ages to prevent the age-specific death rates from increasing and age-specific death rates for females exceeding those for males at some ages in the future. With the high assumption necessitating rapid and consistent declines in mortality rates, a smoother set of age-sex specific rates of improvement were required to give a plausible future mortality schedule. To achieve this a linear fit of age-sex rates of decline from the medium assumption were used. The pattern of the assumed rate of change in age-specific death rates was scaled up or down to conform to the predetermined life expectancies at birth for future years. Assumed age-specific mortality rates The future age-specific mortality rates show significant declines for males and females in all age groups except at ages around 30-39 years and at the very oldest ages (95 years and over). The ratio of male to female projected mortality rates continue to show higher male to female mortality. Assumed state and territory and capital city/balance of state mortality differentials Mortality differentials continue to exist across states and territories, and between capital cities and their respective balances of state. It is assumed that the mortality differentials based on those observed during 1999-2001 between states/territories and Australia, and for capital city/balance of state of the states and territories will remain throughout the projection period. Additional adjustments were made to some differentials to ensure projected deaths were consistent with observed levels. OVERSEAS MIGRATION Summary The long range levels of NOM are assumed to be 125,000 (high assumption), 100,000 (medium assumption) and 70,000 (low assumption) persons. These levels are based on 10-year moving averages of yearly NOM levels over the last 50 years. The assumed future levels incorporate past fluctuations in NOM and the associated influence of economic cycles. In addition, consideration was given to the Migration program announced by the Commonwealth Government in 2002. Trends The yearly level of NOM has fluctuated considerably in Australia. Over the last 10 years, this level has varied between 30,000 in 1992-93 and 135,700 in 2000-01. In 2001-02, NOM was 133,700 persons. However the 2001-01 and 2001-02 NOM assumes zero category jumping. Components of net overseas migration Net overseas migration consists of three parts: permanent movement; long-term movement (for stays of 12 months or more); and category jumping (the change between intended and actual duration of stay of travellers to/from Australia, such that their classification as short-term or as long-term/permanent movers is different at arrival/departure from that after 12 months). Permanent movement Permanent arrivals (settlers) fall into two main groups. The size of one is regulated by government policy in the form of an annual migrant visa quota. The other consists mainly of New Zealand citizens who travel to Australia under the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement and do not come under the migrant visa quota. Permanent departures are unrestricted. The level of permanent departures tends to lag the pattern of permanent arrivals, although at lower levels and with less volatility. In recent years the pattern has been masked by an increasing number of Australian-born people leaving Australia permanently. It remains to be seen whether this will become an ongoing trend. Until 1998–99 net permanent movement was the main component of NOM gain. From 1999-00 net long-term movement exceeded net permanent movement. Long-term movement The time lag between long-term arrivals and long-term departures could account for the increase in long-term movement, or it could be that some long-term visitors are being granted permanent residence on shore and may not be returning to their overseas countries as long-term migrants. However it is not possible to accurately address this issue in the current series of the population projections. During the 1980s, net long-term movement has fluctuated considerably, from a low of 2,000 in 1983-84 to highs of 25,800 in 1981-82 and 20,200 in 1987-88. Since the early 1990s, net long-term movement has increased substantially, from a low of 4,200 in 1990-91 to 47,500 in 1998-99, then increasing further to reach 74,800 in 2000-01 and 93,000 in 2001-02. The high levels in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s were primarily caused by large increases in arrivals while departures were much lower, possibly reflecting the smaller number of arrivals a few years earlier. Most long-term movements are for education, employment and business. Category jumping Given the volatility of annual category jumping levels, it is difficult to predict future values of category jumping. In the last 15 years, category jumping has been affected by the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident, the recession of the early 1990s and the handover of Hong Kong to China in 1996. ABS has currently suspended its estimation of category jumping pending research into an improved model, as reliability of estimates in recent years appears to have been affected by changes in passenger card processing. Category jumping is assumed to be 'zero' in this set of the population projections. Assumed net overseas migration The ABS has developed assumed future levels of NOM by analysing a 10 year moving average over the last 50 years. This average represents medium long-term levels. Net overseas migration levels of 125,000 (high assumption), 100,000 (medium assumption) and 70,000 (low assumption) persons per year were chosen. Only about 10% of the decades in this analysis fell below this range and the latest 3 years are seen as high, possibly affected by the lack of category jumping estimates. The assumptions made for NOM are phased in up to 2005-06. Assumed values of the components of overseas migration were generated by analysing the trends of each component and their interrelationship. In addition to the projection series incorporating the three main assumptions, projections will be available in which it is assumed that there is zero overseas migration. This scenario is intended to facilitate analysis of population growth and give an indication of the cumulative effect over the projection period of different levels of NOM. Under the high NOM assumption, it is assumed there will be 55,000 net permanent movements and 80,000 net long-term movements in 2002-03. From then, net permanent movements will increase and net long-term movements will decrease such that in 2005-06 these numbers will be 63,000 and 62,000 per year respectively, resulting in 125,000 NOM for the year. Under the medium NOM assumption, it is assumed there will be 50,000 net permanent movements and 65,000 net long-term movements in 2002-03. These numbers will be equal (each 50,000) and together will contribute to 100,000 NOM in 2005-06. Under the low NOM assumption , it is assumed there will be 40,000 net permanent movements and 45,000 net long-term movements in 2002-03. These will change to 40,000 net permanent movements and 30,000 net long-term movements resulting in 70,000 net overseas movements in the year 2005-06. Assumed future age-sex profile of overseas migrants The assumed age-sex structure of each migration component for each state and territory is based on the average structures from 2001 and 2002. Age-sex profiles at the capital city/balance of state level are derived from the 1996 and 2001 Census questions on residence one year and five years ago. Overseas arrivals use the two censuses' data on overseas residence one year ago in deriving average ratios of capital city to balance of state by age and sex to split the state and territory arrival assumptions. Similarly, overseas departures use average 1996 and 2001 Census data for those residing in Australia five years previously (that is, capital city/balance of state of departure) and who were overseas residents one year ago but then were Australian residents again on Census night. From this age-sex capital city to balance of state ratios are applied to state and territory overseas departure assumptions. Assumed state and territory net overseas migration Net overseas migration will be allocated to each state and territory as follows: New South Wales will receive 39.6% of all NOM in 2003, declining to 38.9% by 2006 and remaining constant thereafter, followed by Victoria (25.7% declining to 25.2%), Queensland (18.0% increasing to 19.5%), South Australia (2.9% declining to 2.8%) and Western Australia (12.5% declining to 12.3%). The Australian Capital Territory (0.6%), Northern Territory (0.3%) and Tasmania (0.4%) will receive only a small proportion of NOM per year. The individual state and territory share of each component of NOM for the last two years (2001 and 2002) is used as the basis for calculating the share going to each state and territory during the projection period for all three assumptions of NOM. This focus on recent years was to reflect improvements in processing 'state of stay' on passenger cards since 2001. Some consideration was also taken of Queensland's consistently increasing proportion of net migration. The net overseas migrants going to each state or territory will be allocated to its capital city and balance of state or territory. These proportions will be based on usual residence one-year and five-years ago data from the 1996 and 2001 censuses. It is assumed that this distribution will remain constant throughout the projection period for all three assumptions of NOM. INTERSTATE MIGRATION Summary Interstate migration is probably the most difficult component to measure in Australia's population estimation process. The movement of people between the states and territories of Australia is unrestricted and depends on many factors such as varying economic opportunities, overseas immigration and settlement patterns, and lifestyle choices of their populations. As fluctuations in these factors cannot be foreseen, the trends and levels of past net interstate migration are used for the projections. Trends Interstate migration is the most volatile component of population change in each state and territory. However, the movement of people between and within regions is an important determinant of Australia's population distribution. Apart from a distinct pattern of net flows to warmer climates, levels of interstate migration are sensitive to differences between state and territory economies and to some extent the number of permanent and long-term overseas arrivals. Over recent years, interstate migration patterns have been dominated by a northward stream to Queensland and a southward stream to Victoria; all other states and territories have been experiencing net interstate migration losses. Over the period June 1994 to June 2002 New South Wales continued to record large net interstate migration losses while Queensland recorded the largest gains. South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory continued to record small to moderate losses. Net interstate migration for the Australian Capital Territory has fluctuated at around -500 persons per year. Since June 1999 Victoria has experienced positive net interstate migration, a departure from the long-term trend of moderate to large losses. Conversely, Western Australia has recorded a net interstate migration loss over the past three years, contrary to the long-term trend of moderate gains. Assumed net interstate migration The levels of assumed net interstate migration for the projections have been derived by analysing the trends during the past three decades and constraining them so that they sum to zero. Three alternative assumption sets have been made to provide a range of interstate migration scenarios. As interstate migration will continue to be volatile, these assumptions can be interpreted as average annual levels. The high assumption has high levels of net gains and losses, with the medium and low assumptions adopting medium and low levels respectively. Overall, the medium assumption most closely reflects the long-term average net interstate migration experience of the states and territories. The high and low levels attempt to cover a wide range of net interstate movements, reflecting more or less extreme net gains and losses. It should be noted that as the high assumption for some states corresponds to high losses, the low assumption yields greater population growth in such cases. Each assumption remains constant after a transitional period from 2002-03 to 2004-05. Assumed capital city and balance of state migration The internal migration assumptions for capital cities and balances of states are based on historical trends. Net total migration (overseas and internal migration) to each capital city and balance of state is assumed to be the difference between population growth and natural increase in these regions. Net internal migration is assumed to be the difference between net total migration and NOM. NATURE OF PROJECTIONS The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not exact forecasts but simply illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. The projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors (eg. major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars) which may affect future demographic behaviour. LIABILITY It is important to recognise that the projection results given in this report simply reflect the assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration trends. While the assumptions are formulated on the basis of an objective assessment of past demographic trends and their likely future dynamics, there can be no certainty that they will be realised. No liability will be accepted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for any damages arising from decisions or actions based upon these population projections. REFERENCING THESE STATISTICS Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Population Projections, Australia 2002-2101 (ABS cat. no. 3222.0). ADDITIONAL INFORMATION For further information on population projections refer to the ABS publication Population Projections, Australia 2002 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0) available from ABS offices in all capital cities. For more information, or quotes on the preparation of alternative projections, please contact: Katrina Phelan Demography Section Australian Bureau of Statistics Tel. 02 6252 6573 Email: katrina.phelan@abs.gov.au. Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window.
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