3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 Quality Declaration 
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3222.0 Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 - ABS.Stat Datasets

These datasets contain population projections, by age and sex, for all projection series for the period 30 June 2012 to 2101 for Australia, and 30 June 2012 to 2061 for the states and territories and capital cities/balance of state.

For information on validating the relevant datasets you use please see the corresponding section below.


USING ABS.STAT DATASETS

ABS.Stat Beta is a free web tool being trialled by the ABS for manipulating multidimensional datasets. It has some similarities to Excel pivot tables and SuperTable software, but is different in that it can operate with most web browsers and does not require any software to be installed on the user's computer. To use the ABS.Stat Beta format you need to click on the relevant icon and it will take you directly to the data.

In ABS.Stat, the 3 dimensions of a table are Row, Column and Page. All of the variables of a table can be placed into these dimensions to produce customised tables of ABS data. For example, if the user wants 'age' to go across the table, then 'age' is placed in the column dimension. For 'age' to go down the table, it is placed in the row dimension (on the Customise>>Layout screen).

The 2 most powerful ways to customise your table are:
1) Clicking on individual variables to subset or choose additional categories.
2) Arranging the table using the Customise>>Layout menu option. This is where variables can be dragged and dropped into the different dimensions to customise your table.

After customising your table, it can be downloaded in Excel format by following the Export>>Excel menu option. Future versions of ABS.Stat will have more functions enabled.

For more information on ABS.Stat and how to use it please follow this link https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/1407.0.55.001main+features22013 Within ABS.Stat, follow the link on the top right of the screen labelled User assistance and contact to access a User Guide, some video tutorials and an FAQ section.


PROJECTION SERIES

The dataset relating to Australia contains 24 alternative projection series (net interstate migration flows do not apply at the Australia level) whilst the datasets relating to the states and territories contain 72 alternative projection series (both the Australian dataset and those relating to the states and territories include the main reporting Series A, B and C).

Each projection series is based on a combination of different assumptions on fertility, life expectancy (mortality), net overseas migration and net interstate migration. A table presenting the alternative assumptions used and their corresponding series numbers is presented below:


PROJECTION SERIES, Assumptions used

HIGH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH(a)
MEDIUM LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH(b)


Net
interstate
migration
(large flows)(e)(f)
Net
interstate
migration
(medium flows)(e)
Net
interstate
migration
(small flows)(e)(f)
Net
interstate
migration
(large flows)(e)(f)
Net
interstate
migration
(medium flows)(e)
Net
interstate
migration
(small flows)(e)(f)

HIGH FERTILITY (TFR = 2.0)(c)

Net overseas migration (per year)(d)
280 000
1(A)
2
3
4
5
6
240 000
19
20
21
22
23
24
200 000
37
38
39
40
41
42
0
55
56
57
58
59
60

MEDIUM FERTILITY (TFR = 1.8)(c)

Net overseas migration (per year)(d)
280 000
7
8
9
10
11
12
240 000
25
26
27
28
29(B)
30
200 000
43
44
45
46
47
48
0
61
62
63
64
65
66

LOW FERTILITY (TFR = 1.6)(c)

Net overseas migration (per year)(d)
280 000
13
14
15
16
17
18
240 000
31
32
33
34
35
36
200 000
49
50
51
52
53
54(C)
0
67
68
69
70
71
72

(a) The high life expectancy scenario assumes continuing improvement in life expectancy (see Chapter 2 - Assumptions, for further information).
(b) The medium life expectancy scenario assumes declining improvement in life expectancy (see Chapter 2 - Assumptions, for further information).
(c) The fertility assumption is phased in from present levels to the levels indicated in this table by 2026.
(d) The net overseas migration assumptions use the Department of Immigration forecasts until 2017 thereafter the assumptions indicated in this table are phased in by 2021.
(e) The net interstate migration assumptions are phased in by 2021.
(f) The large interstate flows assumption corresponds to large net interstate losses for New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. For these states, the small interstate flows assumption yields greater population growth.

Projected population, Australia, 2012–2101

ABOUT THIS ABS.STAT DATASET


This dataset contains population projections for Australia by single year of age (up to 100 years and over) and sex, for the period 2012–2101. Figures for 30 June 2012 are preliminary estimated resident population thereafter they are projections.


TABLE FOR VALIDATION PURPOSES WHEN USING ABS.STAT DATASETS

PROJECTED POPULATION FOR AUSTRALIA, Series B

30 June 2012(a)
30 June 2013
30 June 2101

Australia
22,721,995
23,119,257
53,564,333

(a) Preliminary estimated resident population, base population.

CLASSIFICATIONS

At end of periodAs at 30 June 2012 to 2100
Projection seriesSeries 1 to 72, where Series 1 is also known as Series A, Series 29 as Series B, and Series 54 as Series C. Note that as interstate migration is not applicable for Australia, Series 1 to 3 are identical, Series 4 to 6 are identical, and so on.
Fertility assumptionHigh fertility, Medium fertility, Low fertility
Mortality assumptionHigh life expectancy, Medium life expectancy
NOM assumptionHigh NOM, Medium NOM, Low NOM, Zero NOM
SexMale, Female, Persons
AgeSingle year of age (0 to 100 years and over)


Projected population, state/territory, greater capital city/balance of state, 2012–2061

ABOUT THESE DATASETS


These datasets contain population projections for each state/territory, by greater capital city/balance of state, single year of age (up to 85 years and over) and sex, for the period 2012 to 2061. Figures for 30 June 2012 are preliminary estimated resident population thereafter they are projections.


TABLE FOR VALIDATION PURPOSES

PROJECTED POPULATION, GREATER CAPITAL CITY/BALANCE OF STATE, Series B

30 June 2012(a)
30 June 2013
30 June 2061

Greater Sydney
4,672,619
4,747,603
8,493,740
Balance of New South Wales
2,628,515
2,650,732
2,981,787
Greater Melbourne
4,248,344
4,335,684
8,580,556
Balance of Victoria
1,380,778
1,392,598
1,724,960
Greater Brisbane
2,192,065
2,243,038
4,787,996
Balance of Queensland
2,373,464
2,420,802
4,471,345
Greater Adelaide
1,278,432
1,293,798
1,920,727
Balance of South Australia
377,867
380,001
387,422
Greater Perth
1,899,999
1,973,154
5,451,406
Balance of Western Australia
532,707
543,300
950,847
Greater Hobart
216,981
217,694
270,655
Balance of Tasmania
295,352
296,082
295,055
Greater Darwin
131,938
134,036
225,873
Balance of Northern Territory
103,244
105,302
227,151
ACT(b)
375,076
382,274
740,903

(a) Preliminary estimated resident population, base population.
(b) Greater capital city/balance of state projections not generated for the Australian Capital Territory.


CLASSIFICATIONS
At end of periodAs at 30 June 2012 to 2061
Projection seriesSeries 1 to 72, where Series 1 is also known as Series A, Series 29 as Series B, and Series 54 as Series C
Fertility assumptionHigh fertility, Medium fertility, Low fertility
Mortality assumptionHigh life expectancy, Medium life expectancy
NOM assumptionHigh NOM, Medium NOM, Low NOM, Zero NOM
Part of StateCapital city, Balance of state, State
SexMale, Female, Persons
AgeSingle year of age (0 to 85 years and over)


Further Information

For further information on these statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070.