AUSTRALIAN CENSUS ANALYTIC PROGRAM - FORECASTING BIRTHS
The Australian Census Analytic Program: Forecasting Births, 2006 (cat. no. 2051.0) article was released on the 21st of July 2011. The authors of this paper are Professor Peter McDonald (Director, Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, Australian National University) and Dr. Rebecca Kippen (Future Fellow, Centre for Health and Society, University of Melbourne). This paper describes a new methodology for the estimation of the future number of births by increasing the number of demographic parameters incorporated in the estimation model. Using data from Australian Censuses of Population and Housing (1981 to 2006), the authors demonstrate the increased accuracy gained in the short-term projection of births through the inclusion of parameters such as the timing of first birth, parity, and duration since previous birth to the conventional model which uses mother's age only. This analysis was undertaken as part of the 2001 and 2006 Australian Census Analytic Program (ACAP).