3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Dec 2012 Quality Declaration 
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MAIN FEATURES COMMENTARY


ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 30 DECEMBER 2012


INTRODUCTION

This article provides a summary of main features of the data for the December quarter 2012 and the annual growth for the year ending December 2012. In addition, this article highlights data related to final rebasing to the 2011 Census, as well as a process of recasting population estimates back to 1991.


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 31 December 2012 was 22,906,400 people. This reflects an increase of 394,200 people since 31 December 2011 and 94,100 people since 30 September 2012.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 31 December 2012 was 1.8%. This continues the trend of an increasing rate from a low of 1.4% for the year ending March 2011.

ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a), Australia
Graph: ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a), Australia



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 31 December 2012 was higher for net overseas migration (60%) than for natural increase (40%). The contribution of NOM to population growth for the year ending December 2012 increased from 57% for the year ending 31 December 2011 whilst the contribution of natural increase to population growth decreased from 43% over the same period.

COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a), Australia
Graph: COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a), Australia



Natural Increase

Natural increase for the year ended 31 December 2012 was 158,300 people, an increase of 4.2%, or 6,300 people, when compared with natural increase for the year ended 31 December 2011 (152,000 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 31 December 2012 (305,400 births) was 2.2%, or 6,600 births, higher than the figure for the year ended 31 December 2011 (298,800 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 31 December 2012 (147,100 deaths) was 0.2%, or 300 deaths, higher than the figure for the year ended 31 December 2011 (146,800 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 31 December 2012, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration estimate was 235,900 people. This was 17.0% (34,400 people) higher than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 31 December 2011 (201,600 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 10.0% (46,600 people) between the years ended 31 December 2011 (452,600 people) and 31 December 2012 (499,200 people).

NOM departures increased by 5.0% (12,200 people) between the years ended 31 December 2011 (251,000 people) and 31 December 2012 (263,300 people).

The preliminary net overseas migration estimate for the December quarter 2012 (53,900 people) was 17.2% (7,900 people) higher than the estimate for the December quarter 2011 (46,000 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The estimated resident population for each state and territory at 31 December 2012 was as follows:
  • New South Wales 7,348,900;
  • Victoria 5,679,600;
  • Queensland 4,610,900;
  • South Australia 1,662,200;
  • Western Australia 2,472,700;
  • Tasmania 512,400;
  • Northern Territory 236,900; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 379,600.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 31 December 2012. Western Australia continued to record the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 3.5%. Tasmania recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.1%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 31 December 2012, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 31 December 2012, natural increase was the major component of population change in the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory. Net overseas migration was the major component of population change in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. A net interstate migration loss was the highest contributor to population change in Tasmania. Net interstate migration losses were also recorded in New South Wales, South Australia and the Northern Territory.


Natural Increase

Births

The total number of births registered for the year ended 31 December 2012 increased in all states and territories except for New South Wales (which decreased 0.7%), Queensland (1.4%) and Tasmania (4.9%). The largest percentage increase of registered births were recorded in Victoria at 8.9% (an increase of 6,300 births). This was followed by the Australian Capital Territory (8.1%), the Northern Territory (4.8%) and Western Australia (3.7%). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 31 December 2012 increased for all states and territories, except for New South Wales (where it decreased 3.5%) and Victoria (0.5%), when compared with the previous year. The largest increase was in Queensland where there was an increase of 800 deaths between the year ended 30 December 2012 and the previous year (3.0%). For more information, see table 14.

Estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded both positive and increased net overseas migration (NOM) when compared to the previous year ended 31 December 2011. Western Australia recorded the largest numerical increase of 10,300 people (24.5%) whilst Tasmania recorded the lowest at 200 people (14.3%). New South Wales recorded the smallest percentage increase at 9.5% (5,300 people) and the Northern Territory recorded the largest percentage increase at 70.6% (1,100 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

When compared to the year ended 31 December 2011, all states and territories recorded increases in NOM arrivals. The largest percentage increase was recorded by the Northern Territory at 23.9% (1,300 people). New South Wales recorded the smallest percentage increase of 5.8% (8,400 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

When compared to the year ended 31 December 2011, increases in NOM departures were recorded for all states and territories. Western Australia recorded the largest percentage increase in departures, up 11.8% (3,500 people). For more information, see table 16.


Net Interstate Migration

Queensland recorded the highest gains from net interstate migration (NIM) for the year ended 31 December 2012 (11,400 people), followed by Western Australia (10,400 people). Other states and territories which recorded net gains were the Australian Capital Territory (1,900 people) and Victoria (1,700 people). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (17,800 people), South Australia (3,300 people), Tasmania (2,700 people) and the Northern Territory (1,700 people). For more information, see table 19.

INTERSTATE MIGRATION, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and Territories - December 2012 Quarter
Graph: INTERSTATE MIGRATION, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and Territories—December 2012 Quarter



5 YEARS OF POPULATION CHANGE - THE LAST INTERCENSAL PERIOD (2006-2011)


FINAL 2011 CENSUS REBASED AND RECAST POPULATION ESTIMATES

After each Census, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) uses the new information obtained to rebase the estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia and its States and Territories. In this issue, the ABS has used the 2011 Census of Population and Housing (2011 Census) and other data to produce final rebased estimates of the resident population for the period 2006-11. For more information on the rebasing process, see the feature article Final rebasing of Australia's population estimates, September quarter 2006 - June quarter 2011.

Recent improvements to the methodology used in determining Census undercount in estimating Australia's population have enabled the ABS to produce more accurate ERP figures for the period 1991 - 2006. This process of revising historical ERP for September 1991 to June 2006 is referred to as 'Recasting'. For more information on this, see the feature article Recasting 20 Years of ERP.


POPULATION AND GROWTH

The final rebased ERP of Australia at 30 June 2011 was 22,340,000 persons, an increase over the most recent intercensal period (2006-2011) of 1,889,100. During this five year period, the population grew by 9.2% compared with 6.1% for the previous intercensal period (2001-2006) where growth was 1,176,300.

At 30 June 2011, the final rebased ERP for the states and territories were as follows:
  • New South Wales 7,218,500;
  • Victoria 5,537,800;
  • Queensland 4,476,800;
  • South Australia 1,639,600;
  • Western Australia 2,353,400;
  • Tasmania 511,500;
  • Northern Territory 231,300; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 368,000.

Over the last intercensal period (2006-2011), all states and territories experienced population growth. Western Australia experienced the fastest growth by far, increasing 14.8%. This was followed by Queensland (11.7%), the Northern Territory (10.6%), the Australian Capital Territory (9.8%), Victoria (9.4%), New South Wales (7.1%), South Australia (5.6%) and Tasmania, which recorded the smallest growth (4.5%).

Total Population Growth, Intercensal periods - 2001 to 2011
Graph: Total Population Growth, Intercensal periods—2001 to 2011


The national average annual growth rate for the five year period from June 2006 to June 2011 was 1.8%. This was higher than the 20 year (1991-2011) average (1.3%) and the previous five year (2001-2006) average (1.2%). At the start of the intercensal period (September 2006) Australia's annual growth rate was 1.5%. This peaked at 2.2% for the year ended December 2008 and then dropped to 1.4% in March 2011 and remained at 1.4% to the end of the intercensal period June 2011.

Over the recent intercensal period (2006-2011), the average annual growth rates for the states and territories were as follows:
  • New South Wales 1.4%;
  • Victoria 1.8%;
  • Queensland 2.2%;
  • South Australia 1.1%;
  • Western Australia 2.8%;
  • Tasmania 0.9%;
  • Northern Territory 2.0%; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 1.9%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

All states and territories experienced positive population growth over the previous five year period, June 2006 to June 2011. Natural increase contributed 780,300 persons (39.7% of total growth) to Australia's total population growth, compared to 613,800 (50.7% of total growth) in the previous intercensal period (2001-2006). Net overseas migration, on the other hand, contributed 1,186,400 persons (60.3% of total growth), compared to 597,500 (49.3% of total growth) in the previous intercensal period. The proportion attributed to each component varied considerably between the states and territories.

Population Components, Proportion of total growth(a)(b) - 5 years ended 30 June 2011
Graph: Population Components, Proportion of total growth(a)(b)—5 years ended 30 June 2011



Natural Increase

As illustrated in the graph above, for the five year period 2006 to 2011, natural increase was the main component of population growth for Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory.

Births

When comparing the number of births recorded between the 2006-2011 intercensal period (1,487,600) and the 2001-2006 intercensal period (1,274,900), there was a 16.7% increase at the national level.

All states and territories recorded an increase in births for this period, with the largest increase being recorded in Western Australia (23.2%). This was followed by Queensland (22.9%), the Australian Capital Territory (17.3%), Victoria (15.2%), New South Wales (13.9%), Tasmania (12.3%), South Australia (12.1%) and the Northern Territory (5.4%).

Deaths

When comparing the number of deaths recorded between the 2006-2011 intercensal period (707,300) and the 2001-2006 intercensal period (661,100) there was a 7.0% increase at the national level.

All states and territories recorded an increase in deaths for this period, with the largest increase being recorded in the Australian Capital Territory (13.3%). This was followed by Western Australia (10.4%), Queensland (10.2%), the Northern Territory (8.4%), Victoria (7.7%), Tasmania (7.1%), South Australia (4.6%) and New South Wales (4.3%).


Net Overseas Migration

NOM made a significant contribution (60.3%) to population growth over the five year period 2006 to 2011 and was the driver of significant changes in growth rates over this period. It was the major component of population growth in the five most populous states of Australia, New South Wales (68.4%), Victoria (63.5%), Queensland (48.1%), South Australia (79.2%) and Western Australia (61.0%).


Net Interstate Migration

Within Australia during the last intercensal period (2006-2011), final estimates reveal there were 1.75 million interstate movements, which is 119,600 less than the previous intercensal period (2001-2006) (1.87 million).

Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and territories - 5 Years ended 30 June 2011
Graph: Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and territories—5 Years ended 30 June 2011


Queensland consistently recorded the highest yearly interstate migration gain, increasing its population by 70,500 persons in the process. This was followed by Western Australia (24,500), Victoria (4,800), the Australian Capital Territory (4,200) and Tasmania (1,900).

The remaining states and territories lost population through interstate migration over the same period with New South Wales losing the most (88,700) followed by South Australia (17,300) and the Northern Territory (400).

Over the five year period (2006-2011), the largest interstate movement was the 278,400 persons moving from New South Wales to Queensland. However, the second largest movement was the inverse of this, with 209,700 persons moving from Queensland to New South Wales. The next largest movement was the 139,900 persons moving from New South Wales to Victoria (Please note the number of movements in this paragraph are based on preliminary data).


20 YEARS OF POPULATION CHANGE (1991-2011)


POPULATION AND GROWTH

Australia's population has grown by around 5,000,000 people over the 20 year period from 1991 to 2011, increasing from around 17,300,000 people in 1991 to around 22,300,000 in 2011. At the end of June 1991, Australia's annual growth rate was 1.3%. This annual growth rate decreased to a low of 0.9% in June 1993 and increased to a peak of 2.2% in December 2008. At the end of June 2011, the annual growth rate was 1.4%. The resulting 20 year average annual growth rate was 1.3%.

Over the past 20 years (1991-2011), all states and territories experienced population growth. Queensland experienced the fastest growth, increasing 51.2%. This was followed by Western Australia (43.8%), the Northern Territory (39.8%), Australian Capital Territory (27.2%), Victoria (25.3%), New South Wales (22.4%), South Australia (13.4%) and then Tasmania with the smallest growth (9.6%), as indicated in the graph below.

Total Population Growth - 1991 to 2011
Graph: Total Population Growth—1991 to 2011



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

Natural increase contributed 2,676,600 persons to Australia's total population growth over the 20 year period (1991-2011). This equates to 51% of total growth for this period, with the remaining 49% due to net overseas migration, which contributed 2,619,100 persons. The proportion attributed to each component varied considerably between the states and territories.

Population Components, Proportion of total growth(a)(b) - 20 years ended 30 June 2011
Graph: Population Components, Proportion of total growth(a)(b)—20 years ended 30 June 2011



Natural Increase

As illustrated in the graph above, for the 20 year period 1991 to 2011, natural increase was the main component of population growth for Tasmania, the Northern Territory, the Australian Capital Territory, South Australia and Queensland.

Births

When comparing the number of births recorded in 1991 with 2011, there was a 15.2% increase at the national level. All states and territories except for Tasmania recorded an increase in births for this period, with the largest increase being recorded in Queensland (40.9%). This was followed by Western Australia (22.9%), New South Wales (10.8%), the Northern Territory (7.9%), Victoria (7.2%), South Australia (3.7%) and the Australian Capital Territory (1.4%). Tasmania recorded a decrease of 6.3% in births between 1991 and 2011.

Deaths

When comparing the number of deaths recorded in 1991 with 2011, there was a 27.6% increase at the national level. All states and territories recorded an increase in deaths for this period, with the largest increase being recorded in Queensland (54.3%). This was followed by the Australian Capital Territory (41.4%), Western Australia (38.1%), Tasmania (32.5%), New South Wales (27.7%), the Northern Territory (20.4%), Victoria (14.6%) and South Australia (11.0%).


Net Overseas Migration

NOM accounted for just under half (49.5%) of population growth over the 20 year period 1991 to 2011. It was the primary component of population growth in New South Wales (63.6%), Victoria (56.5%) and Western Australia (52.1%).


Net Interstate Migration

For the 20 year period 1991 to 2011, Queensland consistently recorded the highest yearly gain in interstate migration, increasing its population by 524,200 persons in the process. The only other state to record a net increase in interstate migration was Western Australia, adding a total of 41,600 persons over the 20 year period.

All remaining states and territories lost population through interstate migration over the same 20 year period, with New South Wales losing the most at 367,600 persons.

Over the 20 year period (1991-2011), the largest interstate movement was 1,100,000 persons moving from New South Wales to Queensland. However, the second largest movement was the inverse of this, with 748,600 persons moving from Queensland to New South Wales. The next largest movement was those persons moving from New South Wales to Victoria (490,600 persons) (Please note the number of movements in this paragraph are based on preliminary data).

Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and territories - 20 years ended 30 June 2011
Graph: Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and territories—20 years ended 30 June 2011