3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Sep 2018 Quality Declaration 
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MAIN FEATURES COMMENTARY


ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 30 SEPTEMBER 2018


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 September 2018 was 25,101,900 people. This is an increase of 395,100 people since 30 September 2017 and 109,100 people since 30 June 2018.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 September 2018 was 1.6%.
Graph Image for Annual population growth rate, Australia (a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Annual growth rate calculated at the end of each quarter. (b) All data to 30 June 2016 is final. Estimates thereafter are preliminary.

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, September quarter 2018




COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population is comprised of natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 September 2018 was higher from NOM (60.8%) than from natural increase (39.2%).


Graph Image for Components of annual population growth (a)(b), Australia

Footnote(s): (a) Annual components calculated at the end of each quarter. (b) For further information on each component of population change, see the Explanatory Notes.

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, September quarter 2018




Natural Increase

The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 30 September 2018 was 155,000 people, an increase of 5.1%, or 7,500 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 September 2017 (147,500 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 30 September 2018 (312,600 births) increased by 4,100 births from the year ended 30 September 2017 (308,500 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 30 September 2018 (157,600 deaths) decreased by 3,400 deaths from the year ended 30 September 2017 (161,000 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 30 September 2018, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 240,100 people. This was 7.5% (19,400 people) lower than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 30 September 2017 (259,400 people).

NOM arrivals decreased by 2.3% (12,200 people) between the years ended 30 September 2017 (540,100 people) and 30 September 2018 (527,900 people).

NOM departures increased by 2.6% (7,200 people) between the years ended 30 September 2017 (280,600 people) and 30 September 2018 (287,800 people).

The preliminary NOM estimate for the September quarter 2018 (72,600 people) was 4.1% (2,800 people) higher than the September quarter 2017 (69,700 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary ERP for each state and territory at 30 September 2018 was as follows:
  • New South Wales 8,023,700;
  • Victoria 6,497,700;
  • Queensland 5,033,100;
  • South Australia 1,740,700;
  • Western Australia 2,602,400;
  • Tasmania 529,900;
  • Northern Territory 247,200; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 422,500.

Positive population growth occurred in most states and territories in the year ended 30 September 2018. Victoria recorded the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.2%. The Northern Territory recorded the only negative growth rate at -0.2%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three main components: natural increase, net overseas migration (NOM) and net interstate migration.

Although majority of states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 September 2018, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 30 September 2018, natural increase was the major contributor to population change in Western Australia. Net interstate migration loss was the largest component of population change in the Northern Territory. NOM was the major contributor to population change in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory.

Net interstate migration gains occurred in Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania, and the Australian Capital Territory. All other states and territories recorded net interstate migration losses.


Natural Increase

Births

Compared with the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 30 September 2018 increased in half of the states and territories.

The largest percentage increase was recorded in New South Wales at 4.4%. This was followed by the Tasmania (1.2%), Victoria (1.0%) and Queensland (0.6%).

The most significant decrease was recorded in the Australian Capital Territory at 4.9% followed by South Australia (2.4%), Western Australia (2.3%) and the Northern Territory (1.5%).

For more information, see table 10.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 30 September 2018 decreased in most states and territories.

Queensland recorded the largest percentage increase at 1.6%. This was followed by the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory (both 1.5%) .

Decreases were recorded in all remaining states, the largest being Tasmania at 7.0% followed by Victoria (3.7%), New South Wales (3.2%) and Western Australia (0.4%).

For more information, see table 11.

Preliminary estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see Explanatory Notes 10-11).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories, except the Northern Territory, recorded positive NOM for the year ending 30 September 2018. However, compared with the previous year, NOM decreased in majority of the states and territories, the largest being the Northern Territory 46.8%, followed by New South Wales (14.1%), Tasmania (8.4%), Victoria (7.1%) and the Australian Capital Territory (0.6%).

The largest percentage increase in NOM was recorded in the Western Australia at 14.2%. This was followed by South Australia (6.7%) and Queensland (0.2%). For more information, see table 13.

NOM arrivals

The number of NOM arrivals for the year ended 30 September 2018 increased in South Australia (4.5%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.7%) and Victoria (0.2%).

The largest percentage decrease in NOM arrivals was recorded in the Northern Territory at 18.4%. This was followed by New South Wales (4.6%) and Western Australia (4.5%). For more information, see table 13.

NOM departures

Compared with the previous year, the number of NOM departures for the year ended 30 September 2018 increased in Victoria (9.7%), Tasmania (7.5%), New South Wales (5.8%), South Australia (2.2%) and the Australian Capital Territory (1.6%)

The largest percentage decrease was recorded in Western Australia at 10.8%. This was followed by the Northern Territory (10.3%) and Queensland (2.3%). For more information, see table 13.


Net Interstate Migration

In the year ended 30 September 2018, Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory recorded net interstate migration gains. Queensland had the highest net gain with 24,300 people, up from 19,700 people in the year ended 30 September 2017. This was followed by Victoria (14,000 people), Tasmania (2,400 people) and the Australian Capital Territory (300 people). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (22,100 people), Western Australia (10,300), South Australia (4,600 people) and the Northern Territory (3,900 people). For more information, see table 14.

Graph Image for Interstate migration, Arrivals, departures and net

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, September quarter 2018