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ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 30 SEPTEMBER 2015


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 September 2015 was 23,860,100 people. This reflects an increase of 313,200 people since 30 September 2014 and 82,400 people since 30 June 2015.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 September 2015 was 1.3%.

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 September 2015 was higher from net overseas migration (54%) than from natural increase (46%).

Natural Increase

The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 30 September 2015 was 145,600 people, a decrease of 7.7%, or 12,100 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 September 2014 (157,700 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 30 September 2015 (298,200 births) decreased by 13,800 births from the year ended 30 September 2014 (312,100 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 30 September 2015 (152,700 deaths) decreased by 1,800 deaths from the year ended 30 September 2014 (154,400 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 30 September 2015, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 167,700 people. This was 7.0% (12,700 people) lower than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 30 September 2014 (180,300 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 2.1% (9,900 people) between the years ended 30 September 2014 (470,900 people) and 30 September 2015 (480,800 people).

NOM departures increased by 7.8% (22,500 people) between the years ended 30 September 2014 (290,600 people) and 30 September 2015 (313,100 people).

The preliminary net overseas migration estimate for the September quarter 2015 (47,800 people) was 1.1% (530 people) lower than the estimate for the September quarter 2014 (48,300 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population for each state and territory at 30 September 2015 was as follows:

• New South Wales 7,644,200;
• Victoria 5,966,700;
• Queensland 4,792,900;
• South Australia 1,701,100;
• Western Australia 2,598,200;
• Tasmania 517,200;
• Northern Territory 244,500; and
• Australian Capital Territory 392,000.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 30 September 2015. Victoria recorded the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 1.7%. The Northern Territory recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.3%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 September 2015, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 30 September 2015, natural increase was the major component of population change in Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Net overseas migration was the major component of population change in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia. A net interstate migration loss was the largest component of population change in the Northern Territory. Net interstate migration losses were recorded in all states and territories except for Victoria and Queensland.


Natural Increase

Births

Compared with the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 30 September 2015 decreased in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory and increased in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

The largest percentage decrease was recorded in Victoria, decreasing by 7.7% (5,900 births). This was followed by Queensland (down 5.4%) and South Australia (down 3.8%). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 30 September 2015 increased in all states and territories except for Victoria (down 8.1%), New South Wales (down 0.5%) and the Australian Capital Territory (down 0.3%). Western Australia recorded the largest percentage increase at 4.1% (570 people). This was followed by the Northern Territory (up 3.1%) and Queensland (up 3.0%). For more information, see table 14.

Preliminary estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive NOM for the year ending 30 September 2015. Only the Australian Capital Territory recorded an increase when compared with the previous year (29.5%). All other states and territories recorded decreases in NOM when compared with the previous year. The largest percentage decrease in NOM was recorded in Queensland at 34.7% (8,900 people). This was followed by Western Australia which decreased by 14.0% (by 2,300 people), and the Northern Territory which decreased by 11.7% (by 100 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

The total number of NOM arrivals for the year ended 30 September 2015 increased in all states and territories except for Western Australia (down 6.7%) and Queensland (down 3.0%). Increases in NOM arrivals were recorded in the Australian Capital Territory at 8.5% (700 people), Victoria 6.0% (7,400 people), New South Wales 4.8% (7,700 people), Tasmania 3.1% (120 people), South Australia 1.5% (300 people) and the Northern Territory 1.0% (60 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

Compared with the previous year, the number of NOM departures for the year ended 30 September 2015 increased in all states and territories except Western Australia (down 3.8%). The largest percentage increase was recorded in Victoria at 12.2% (8,400 people) and Queensland at 10.7% (6,300 people). This was followed by New South Wales at 8.8% (8,300 people), Tasmania 5.9% (150 people), South Australia 4.8% (600 people), the Northern Territory 3.9% (190 people) and the Australian Capital Territory 2.6% (170 people). For more information, see table 16.


Net Interstate Migration

In the year ended 30 September 2015, only Victoria and Queensland recorded net interstate migration (NIM) gains. Victoria continued a recent trend of recording the highest net gain with 11,200 people, up from 8,500 people in the year ended 30 September 2014. This was followed by Queensland with 6,900 people, which was up from 5,900 people in the previous year. Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (7,500 people), South Australia (4,100 people), the Northern Territory (3,000 people), Western Australia (2,700 people) the Australian Capital Territory (600 people) and Tasmania (200 people). For more information, see table 17.