3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Mar 2014 Quality Declaration 
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MAIN FEATURES COMMENTARY


ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 31 MARCH 2014


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 31 March 2014 was 23,425,700 people. This reflects an increase of 388,400 people since 31 March 2013 and 111,600 people since 31 December 2013.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 31 March 2014 was 1.7%.

ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a)(b), Australia
Graph: ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a)(b), Australia



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 31 March 2014 was higher from net overseas migration (60%) than from natural increase (40%).

COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a)(b), Australia
Graph: COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a)(b), Australia



Natural Increase

The preliminary estimated natural increase for the year ended 31 March 2014 was 156,900 people, a decrease of 3.3%, or 5,300 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 31 March 2013 (162,200 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 31 March 2014 (306,500 births) decreased by 5,000 births from the year ended 31 March 2013 (311,500 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 31 March 2014 (149,600 deaths) remained fairly stable, decreasing by 300 deaths from the year ended 31 March 2013 (149,300 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 31 March 2014, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 231,500 people. This was 2.8% (6,600 people) lower than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 31 March 2013 (238,100 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 1.1% (5,500 people) between the years ended 31 March 2013 (499,900 people) and 31 March 2014 (503,300 people).

NOM departures increased by 4.6% (12,000 people) between the years ended 31 March 2013 (261,800 people) and 31 March 2014 (273,800 people).

The preliminary net overseas migration estimate for the March quarter 2014 (69,900 people) was 4.8% (3,500 people) lower than the estimate for the March quarter 2013 (73,400 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The estimated resident population for each state and territory at 31 March 2014 was as follows:
  • New South Wales 7,500,600;
  • Victoria 5,821,300;
  • Queensland 4,708,500;
  • South Australia 1,682,600;
  • Western Australia 2,565,600;
  • Tasmania 514,700;
  • Northern Territory 243,700; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 385,600.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 31 March 2014. Western Australia continued to record the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.5%. Tasmania recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.3%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 31 March 2014, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 31 March 2014, natural increase was the major component of population change in Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Net overseas migration was the major component of population change in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Net interstate migration losses were recorded in all states and territories except for Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.


Natural Increase

Births

Compared to the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 31 March 2014 decreased in all states and territories except for the Australian Capital Territory, which recorded a 4.1% (220 births) increase in birth registrations. The largest percentage decrease was recorded in South Australia, decreasing by 3.2% (660 births). This was followed by New South Wales (down 2.8%) and Tasmania (down 1.8%). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 31 March 2014 increased slightly for most of the states and territories when compared to the previous year. The largest percentage increase was recorded in the Northern Territory, increasing by 5.7% (60 deaths). This was followed by the Australian Capital Territory (up 3.7%) and Western Australia (up 1.4%). The number of registered deaths remained stable in the remaining states. For more information, see table 14.

Estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive net overseas migration (NOM) for the year ending 31 March 2014. However, most states and territories recorded a decrease in NOM when compared with the previous year. The largest percentage decrease in NOM over the last four quarters was recorded in the Northern Territory at 27.6% (1,300 people). This was closely followed by Western Australia, which decreased by 27.5% (15,100 people) and Queensland, which decreased by 19.0% (8,100 people). The largest increase in NOM was recorded in New South Wales, which increased by 12,500 people (19.6%). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

Compared with the previous year ended 31 March 2013, most states and territories recorded decreases in NOM arrivals. Western Australia recorded the largest percentage and numerical decrease at 12.3% (10,800 people), followed by the Northern Territory at 5.7% (500 people) and Queensland at 5.3% (5,100 people). The largest increase was recorded for New South Wales at 9.0% (13,900 people), followed by Victoria at 5.9% (7,000 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

Compared with the previous year ended 31 March 2013, all states and territories recorded increases in NOM departures except for Tasmania, which recorded a slight decrease of 1.2%. The largest percentage increase was recorded for the Northern Territory at 21.0% (800 people), followed by Western Australia at 13.1% (4,300 people) and Queensland at 5.7% (3,000 people). For more information, see table 16.


Net Interstate Migration

Victoria recorded the highest gains from net interstate migration (NIM) for the year ended 31 March 2014 (8,400 people), followed by Queensland (5,800 people) and Western Australia (2,800 people). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (8,600 people), South Australia (3,400 people), the Northern Territory (2,800 people), Tasmania (1,300 people) and the Australian Capital Territory (800 people). For more information, see table 17.

INTERSTATE MIGRATION, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and Territories - Year ending March 2014
Graph: INTERSTATE MIGRATION, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and Territories—Year ending March 2014



STATISTICS FOR PARLIAMENTARY REPRESENTATION

In keeping with legislative requirements, it is anticipated that the Electoral Commissioner will require a set of statistics before the end of this quarter for electoral determination purposes in accordance with the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. Population estimates required under section 46 (1B) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 are presented in table 8.

The following table shows the estimated net undercount, and associated standard errors, for the 2011 Census of Population and Housing as required by section 47 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. Population estimates have already been adjusted to account for estimated net undercount in the census. For the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory, in circumstances referenced to in section 48 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, the Electoral Commissioner will add twice the standard error of the estimate of net undercount to each Territory's population, and recalculate its electoral entitlement. For further information see Information Paper: Determining Seats in the House of Representatives - Legislative Requirements for Provision of ABS Statistics, Australia, 2005 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.002).

2011 Census, Net undercount, standard errors and confidence intervals - NT and ACT

Territory
Net undercount
Standard error
Two standard errors
Lower 95% confidence limit
Upper 95% confidence limit

Northern Territory
15 716
3 074
6 148
9 568
21 864
Australian Capital Territory
2 595
3 055
6 110
-3 515
8 705

Source: Table 13, Census of Population and Housing - Details of Undercount, Australia, 2011 (cat. no. 2940.0).