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ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 31 DECEMBER 2015


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 31 December 2015 was 23,940,300 people. This reflects an increase of 326,100 people since 31 December 2014 and 71,300 people since 30 September 2015.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 31 December 2015 was 1.4%.

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 31 December 2015 was higher from net overseas migration (54.3%) than from natural increase (45.7%).

Natural Increase

The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 31 December 2015 was 148,900 people, a decrease of 1.0%, or 1,600 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 31 December 2014 (150,500 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 31 December 2015 (305,400 births) increased by 1,500 births from the year ended 31 December 2014 (303,900 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 31 December 2015 (156,400 deaths) increased by 3,000 deaths from the year ended 31 December 2014 (153,400 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 31 December 2015, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 177,100 people. This was 0.5% (900 people) lower than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 31 December 2014 (178,000 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 3.4% (15,700 people) between the years ended 31 December 2014 (467,400 people) and 31 December 2015 (483,100 people).

NOM departures increased by 5.7% (16,500 people) between the years ended 31 December 2014 (289,400 people) and 31 December 2015 (306,000 people).

The preliminary net overseas migration estimate for the December quarter 2015 (36,400 people) was 5.2% (1,800 people) higher than the estimate for the December quarter 2014 (34,600 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary ERP for each state and territory at 31 December 2015 was as follows:

• New South Wales 7,670,700;
• Victoria 5,996,400;
• Queensland 4,808,800;
• South Australia 1,702,800;
• Western Australia 2,603,900;
• Tasmania 517,400;
• Northern Territory 244,000; and
• Australian Capital Territory 393,000.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 31 December 2015. Victoria recorded the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 1.9%. The Northern Territory recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.3%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 31 December 2015, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 31 December 2015, natural increase was the major component of population change in Queensland, Western Australia, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory. Net overseas migration was the major component of population change in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Net interstate migration losses were recorded in all states and territories except for Victoria and Queensland.


Natural Increase

Births

Compared with the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 31 December 2015 decreased in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania and increased in New South Wales, the Northern Territory, and the Australian Capital Territory.

The largest percentage decrease was recorded in South Australia, decreasing by 4.5% (900 births). This was followed by Queensland (down 3.5%) and Tasmania (down 3.1%). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 31 December 2015 increased in most states and territories. Western Australia recorded the largest percentage increase at 4.6% (640 people). This was followed by Queensland (up 4.3%). Tasmania (up 4.3%), and South Australia (up 2.9%). For more information, see table 14.

Preliminary estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive NOM for the year ending 31 December 2015. Only New South Wales (up 0.4%) and Victoria (up 6.6%) recorded an increase when compared with the previous year. All other states and territories recorded decreases in NOM when compared with the previous year. The largest percentage decrease in NOM was recorded in the Northern Territory at 18.9% (200 people). This was followed by Queensland which decreased by 15.2% (by 3,500 people), and the Australian Capital Territory which decreased by 7.2% (by 200 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

The total number of NOM arrivals for the year ended 31 December 2015 increased in all states and territories except for Western Australia (down 4.0%) and the Australian Capital Territory (down 0.2%). Increases in NOM arrivals were recorded in Victoria 7.6% (9,600 people), New South Wales 4.9% (7,900 people), Tasmania 2.4% (100 people), the Northern Territory 1.5% (100 people), Queensland 0.3% (200 people) and South Australia 0.2% (100 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

Compared with the previous year, the number of NOM departures for the year ended 31 December 2015 increased in all states and territories except Western Australia (down 3.5%). The largest percentage increase was recorded in Victoria at 8.4% (5,800 people) and New South Wales at 8.0% (7,600 people). This was followed by Queensland at 6.4% (3,700 people), Tasmania 6.1% (200 people), the Northern Territory 5.3% (300 people), the Australian Capital Territory 2.4% (200 people) and South Australia 2.2% (300 people). For more information, see table 16.


Net Interstate Migration

In the year ended 31 December 2015, only Victoria and Queensland recorded net interstate migration (NIM) gains. Victoria continued a recent trend of recording the highest net gain with 13,000 people, up from 9,300 people in the year ended 31 December 2014. This was followed by Queensland with 8,300 people, which was up from 5,600 people in the previous year. Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (8,700 people), South Australia (5,000 people), Western Australia (4,300 people), the Northern Territory (2,700 people), the Australian Capital Territory (500 people) and Tasmania (100 people). For more information, see table 17.