1 The information shown in this publication for the domestic sales of Australian produced wine is obtained directly from winemakers by means of a mail collection. The brandy sales figures shown represent quantities on which excise duty was paid, i.e. the quantity of brandy released for sale. Statistics relating to import clearances and exports are based on information provided to the Australian Customs Service by importers, exporters and their agents.
SCOPE AND COVERAGE
2 The information on domestic sales of Australian produced wine is obtained from 97 winemaking enterprises with sales of 250,000 litres or more in either of the previous two financial years. These account for approximately 92% of total wine sales. All sales data are collected on an Australia-wide basis only and state figures are therefore not available.
3 Tables 1, 3 & 4 include all sales by winemakers (within the scope of the collection) with the exception of exports, sales for ships’ stores, sales of imported wine and brandy and inter-winery sales, the last exclusion being necessary to avoid duplication in the published figures. From July 1998 the definition for table wine in the glass container categories changed from ‘1 litre and under’ to ‘less than 2 litres’. This series has been retained as the contribution of the over 1 litre but under 2 litres containers (such as table wine in magnum sized bottles) is believed to have been less than 1%. There is an expectation this contribution will increase in the future. This has a consequential effect for the ‘other containers’ category which includes glass containers 2 litres and over from July 1998 (prior to this it was glass over 1 litre). This series will also be retained.
4 From July 2000, the category ‘Flavoured wine’ has been changed to ‘Other wine products’. This change reflects the inclusion of de-alcoholised, low and reduced alcohol wines in the category. These wine types were previously included in ‘Table wine’. While it is expected that the effect on the ‘Table wine’ series resulting from this change will be insignificant, care should be taken in comparing ‘Flavoured wine’ with ‘Other wine products’.
IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
5 Figures relating to international trade in wine and brandy are presented in tables 5-10 to provide a basis for assessing the overall wine market. ABS procedures are designed to ensure that sufficient editing is undertaken to guarantee the quality and integrity of trade statistics to at least the six-digit Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS) level. After the release of monthly trade statistics, the ABS may receive a number of client requests to investigate cases of possible misreporting. Most relate to potential errors at the more detailed levels of the commodity classification. Client requests for data investigations of this type will be undertaken free of charge if data at the six-digit level of the HS are affected. Otherwise investigations will only be considered if the value of the aggregate data queried exceeds $250,000 in each month queried, and the cost of the investigation is met by the client.
6 Imports cleared for home consumption (including re-imports, that is, goods originating in Australia that have been exported but then returned to source) comprise those goods entered for home consumption, together with goods cleared from Customs warehouses. Exports of Australian produce are defined as exports of goods, materials or articles which have been produced, manufactured or partly manufactured in Australia. Due to a change in the Customs Tariff codes implemented in July 1999 and July 2000, the wine type categories are not necessarily comparable with earlier data.
7 In order to retain stability in the time-series of data, the selection of countries for which exports and imports data has been presented has been based upon the level of annual imports or exports from the previous financial year.
8 The value of exports is the free on board (f.o.b.) transactions value of the goods expressed in Australian dollars. The ABS converts foreign currency f.o.b. values to Australian dollars using the exchange rate prevailing on the date of departure shown on the export manifest.
9 The value of imports is the Australian customs value. Goods are valued at the point of containerisation (in most cases) or the port of shipment, or at the customs frontier of the exporting country, whichever comes first.
10 For details of currency conversion procedures for wine export values, please refer to 2.34 and 2.35 of International Merchandise Trade, Australia; Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2001 (cat. no. 5489.0). Goods invoiced in one of six major foreign currencies are converted to Australian dollars by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Sales in other foreign currencies are converted by the exporter to Australian dollars.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES
11 Seasonal adjustment is a means of removing the estimated effects of normal seasonal variation from the series so that the effects of other influences can be more clearly recognised. Seasonal adjustment does not remove from the series the effect of irregular influences (e.g. abnormal weather and industrial disputes).
12 The seasonally adjusted estimates in this publication have been produced using a concurrent methodology whereby the seasonal factors are revised each month to take into account the seasonality exhibited by the latest observation. A more detailed review is conducted annually.
13 The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates have been improved by the use of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The Sales of Australian Wine and Brandy by Winemakers Survey uses ARIMA modelling where appropriate for individual time series. The ARIMA model is assessed as part of the annual reanalysis. For more information on the details of ARIMA modelling see feature article: Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions in the October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat. no. 1350.0).
14 The smoothing of seasonally adjusted series to create trend estimates is a means of reducing the impact of the irregular component of the series. The trend estimates of wine sales have been derived by applying a 13-term Henderson weighted moving average to the seasonally adjusted series.
15 For further information, see Information Paper: A Guide to Interpreting Time Series - Monitoring Trends (cat. no. 1349.0) or contact the Director, Time Series Analysis on Canberra (02) 6252 6354 or via e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org.
16 ABS publications draw extensively on information provided freely by individuals, businesses, governments and other organisations. Their continued cooperation is very much appreciated: without it, the wide range of statistics published by the ABS would not be available. Information received by the ABS is treated in strict confidence as required by the Census and Statistics Act 1905.
17 Another ABS publication which may be of interest is the Australian Wine and Grape Industry (cat. no. 1329.0). This is a statistical compendium of Australia’s wine and grape industries containing information on: area of vines and production of grapes by region; wine production and grapes crushed by region; structure of the wine manufacturing industries; stocks of wine held by winemakers at 30 June; domestic wine sales; exports and imports of wine; price indexes of grapes and wine; consumption of wine and world comparisons.
18 Current publications and other products by the ABS are listed on the ABS web site. The ABS also issues a daily Release Advice on the web site which details products to be released in the week ahead.