6354.0 - Job Vacancies, Australia, May 2020 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 25/06/2020   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All RSS Feed RSS Bookmark and Share Search this Product

EXPLANATORY NOTES



INTRODUCTION

The Job Vacancies Survey (JVS) was first conducted in 1974 and has been conducted on a quarterly basis since 1979. The survey produces estimates of the number of job vacancies in Australia, which are used as a leading indicator of employment growth in monitoring of the Australian labour market and economy, and for formulating economic policy.

Descriptions of the underlying concepts of Australia's job vacancies statistics, and the sources and methods used in compiling these estimates, are presented in Labour Statistics: Concepts, Sources and Methods (cat. no. 6102.0.55.001).


REFERENCE PERIOD

The JVS reference date is the third Friday of the middle month of the quarter, i.e. February, May, August and November. Job vacancies data relate to the number of vacancies which exist on the actual survey reference date only, and not for a monthly or quarterly period.


SCOPE AND COVERAGE

The survey covers all employing organisations in Australia (public and private sectors), except:

  • enterprises primarily engaged in agriculture, forestry and fishing;
  • private households employing staff; and
  • foreign embassies, consulates, etc.

All job vacancies of organisations covered in the survey are in scope, except those:
  • in the Australian permanent defence forces; and
  • located outside Australia.


COLLECTION METHOD

Details of the total number of job vacancies available for immediate filling on the survey reference date are obtained on a quarterly basis from selected businesses. Data are collected via online electronic collection, and/or telephone interviews.

Follow-up procedures are in place to obtain information from respondents who don't lodge a completed form by the due date. The target minimum response is 95% for the survey as a whole, and approximately 90% for each state and/or industry.


SAMPLE DESIGN

The sample is selected from the ABS Business Register (ABSBR) which is a list of businesses and organisations operating in Australia primarily based on registrations to the Australian Taxation Office's (ATO) Pay-As-You-Go Withholding (PAYGW) scheme. The population is updated quarterly to take account of new businesses, businesses that have ceased employing, changes in industry and employment levels and other general business changes.

A probability sample of statistical units (employing businesses) is drawn from the ABSBR. The statistical unit for the survey comprises all the activities of an employer in a particular state or territory based on the Australian Business Number (ABN) unit or Type of Activity Unit (TAU). Each statistical unit is classified to an industry which reflects the predominant activity of the business. Variables used to stratify the survey frame are:
  • public/private sector;
  • industry;
  • state/territory; and
  • employment size – the ranges used vary between states/territories and industries.

Statistical units with benchmark employment greater than a set cut off (this cut off will vary for different states/territories) are completely enumerated. Strata with a very small number of statistical units may also be completely enumerated, but such strata may become sampled strata if the number of units increases sufficiently. Within each stratum, statistical units are selected with equal probability.

Sample selection is constrained by ensuring that there is minimum overlap with other labour-related business surveys.

For details on the ABS Business Register and ABS economic units model, see the Methods used in ABS Business Surveys chapter in Labour Statistics: Concepts, Sources and Methods.



SAMPLE SIZE

Approximately 5,500 statistical units are selected in the sample to yield a live sample of approximately 5,130 units. The sample is allocated optimally across the strata using a technique designed to minimise the variance of job vacancies estimates at both the national and state/territory level.


SAMPLE ROTATION

The sample is updated each quarter to reflect changes in the ABS Business Register. Sample rotation is implemented for the majority of strata, but is not implemented where the population of a stratum is so small that units rotating out of the sample would be rotated back in after only a short interval. Approximately 8% of the sample for the non-completely enumerated strata is replaced each quarter.


ESTIMATION

Number raised estimation is used in all strata.

For non-responding units in the sampled strata, the Live Respondent Mean method of imputation is used.

For non-responding units in the completely enumerated (CE) strata, an imputed growth rate is applied to the previous quarter's reported value for that unit. Growth rates are estimated for each industry division, based on data provided by CE units in the current and previous quarter. Where data for non-responding CE units have not been reported in the previous quarter, ratio imputation is used. The ratio of job vacancies to benchmark employment is calculated at industry division level for responding units from the current quarter. This ratio is then applied to the benchmark employment for the non-responding unit to arrive at the imputed value for job vacancies.

For the May 2020 quarter, the JVS imputation processes were further refined to incorporate JobKeeper registration information in the imputation class structure. This improved the accuracy of imputation for the small number of businesses unable to respond this quarter, by better controlling for COVID-19 impacts.

Survey estimates include an adjustment called Business Provisions, to allow for births and resurrections of businesses that have occurred up to the end of the survey reference period but which are not reflected on the survey frame.

For further information on estimation methods used in ABS business surveys, refer to the Methods used in ABS Business Surveys chapter in Labour Statistics: Concepts, Sources and Methods.


SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT AND TREND ESTIMATION

Seasonal adjustment is a means of removing the estimated effects of normal seasonal variation from the series so that the effects of other influences can be more clearly recognised. Seasonal adjustment does not aim to remove the irregular or non-seasonal influences which may be present in any particular series. Influences that are volatile or unsystematic can still make it difficult to interpret the movement of the series even after adjustment for seasonal variation. This means that quarter-to-quarter movements of seasonally adjusted estimates may not be reliable indicators of trend behaviour.

Seasonally adjusted estimates can be smoothed to reduce the impact of irregular or non-seasonal influences. Smoothed seasonally adjusted series are called trend estimates. The ABS considers that trend estimates provide a more reliable guide to the underlying direction of the data, and are more suitable than either the seasonally adjusted or original estimates for most business decisions and policy advice.

During the COVID-19 period, the ABS will use forward seasonal factors to produce seasonally adjusted estimates at the Australia level and for the public sector. Forward factor adjustments are generally better suited to managing large movements at the end point of a series and ensure that large movements do not have a disproportionate influence on the seasonal factors.

Due to a non-seasonal span in the private sector series, the forward factor approach is not considered suitable and the concurrent adjustment method was retained for this series.

Commencing with the May 2020 quarter, all trend series have been suspended until more certainty emerges in the underlying trend in job vacancies estimates over the COVID-19 period. The ABS will review this treatment in future quarters.

For a more detailed discussion on the implications of unusual events on time series, see When it's not "business-as-usual": Implications for ABS Time Series.



SUSPENSION OF JOB VACANCIES SURVEY BETWEEN MAY 2008 AND NOVEMBER 2009

The JVS was suspended following the May 2008 survey and was reinstated for the November 2009 survey. As a result, there is a gap in all series: original, seasonally adjusted and trend, for five periods between August 2008 and August 2009 inclusive. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) cannot produce reliable estimates by collecting this missing data retrospectively, and has not been able to fill the gap using other data sources.

Modelled data, at the Australia by sector level only, have been used in the calculation of trend and seasonally adjusted estimates for the three cycles either side of the gap period. The modelled data, which is for the gap period from August 2008 to August 2009 inclusive, are not part of the JVS series and are not available for release from this publication.

For further information, see Information Paper: Reinstatement of Job Vacancies Survey (cat. no. 6354.0.55.001).


SURVEY OUTPUT

Data are available by:

  • State and Territory
  • Sector (Public/Private); and
  • Industry.

Data on job vacancies by sector are available on original, seasonally adjusted and trend basis. Data for industries, and for states and territories, are only available on an original basis.


RELIABILITY OF ESTIMATES

Estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling errors. For information on the reliability of estimates see the Technical Note.


ROUNDING

Estimates have been rounded and discrepancies may occur between sums of the component items and totals. Estimates of percentage change have been calculated using unrounded estimates, and may be different from, but are more accurate than, movements obtained from calculating percentage change using the rounded estimates presented in this release.

RELATED PUBLICATIONS

Users may also wish to refer to the following publications:



HISTORY OF CHANGES

In order to provide a high degree of consistency and comparability over time, changes to survey methods, concepts, data item definitions, and frequency of collection are made as infrequently as possible. Significant changes have included:

1974
  • Annual Job Vacancies Survey via mail-out commenced (largely to investigate practicality of a JVS)

1977
  • Introduction of a smaller scale quarterly telephone-based survey
  • Sample based on lists of private and public employers

1978
  • Annual and quarterly surveys discontinued

1979
  • Quarterly survey reintroduced
  • Treatment of Australian Public Service vacancies changed to exclude "vacancies" only available to public service employees

1980
  • First collection of job vacancies registered with the Commonwealth Employment Service (CES) (continued on annual basis)

1982
  • Collection of vacancies classified by sex discontinued

1985
  • Job vacancies data published by sector for the first time

1988
  • ABS publication of job vacancies registered with the CES discontinued, with the data available via special data service

1989
  • Seasonally adjusted series produced for the first time (November)
  • Collection of job vacancies registered with CES discontinued
  • Job Vacancies, Australia (cat. no. 6231.0) and Overtime, Australia (cat. no. 6330.0) merged into Job Vacancies and Overtime, Australia publication (cat. no. 6354.0)

1993
  • Trend estimates published for the first time

1994
  • Survey redesigned on an ANZSIC (1993) industry basis. The historical Industry series data was back cast on an ANZSIC 1993 basis
  • Sample rotation increased from approximately 5% to approximately 8% in rotating strata

1998
  • Treatment of Australian Public Service vacancies changed (from being excluded to being included) after vacancies were made available to all Australian citizens

1999
  • Introduction of Live Respondent Mean imputation for the sampled sector, and the Business Provisions adjustment for the private sector
  • Overtime component discontinued
  • Significant improvement in procedures, particularly coverage of vacancies within statistical units

2002
  • Changes to the ABS Business Register and the ABS statistical units model arising from the New Tax System (changes did not affect the continuity of the key statistical series)

2003
  • Collection of number of employees discontinued
  • Publication of job vacancy rate discontinued

2006
  • Concurrent seasonal adjustment method introduced, replacing the forward factor adjustment method previously used

2008
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for the private sector temporarily suspended due to a lack of identifiable seasonality in February and May 2008 (seasonally adjusted estimates match the corresponding original estimates)
  • Survey suspended for five quarters from August 2008 to August 2009 inclusive

2009
  • Survey reinstated for the November 2009 reference period
  • Survey sample and outputs redesigned on ANZSIC 2006 industry basis from November 2009, but historical ANZSIC 1993 series up to May 2008 were not backcast
  • Updated employment benchmarks on the business survey frame to reflect more up-to-date information for use in stratification and estimation
  • Incorporated changes to the SISCA, Public/Private and level of Government classifications

2010
  • Estimates from reinstated survey first published for the February 2010 reference period
  • Trend estimates for November 2009 onwards reintroduced from the August 2010 issue

2014
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for the private sector reinstated in February 2014 as the series is again showing identifiable seasonality
  • Online electronic collection introduced from February 2014 reference period

2017
  • From the November 2017 issue, winsorisation methodology was introduced as the primary method to treat outliers in JVS replacing 'surprise outliering'

2018
  • Redesigned survey sample implemented in February 2018 issue

2020
  • Revisions to the Administration and support services industry implemented in the February 2020 issue
  • Imputation methodology refined to include JobKeeper registration information in the imputation class structure in the May 2020 issue
  • Trend estimates were suspended temporarily from May 2020
  • Forward seasonal factors replaced concurrent adjustment for the Australia and public sector series, commencing with May 2020 issue