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DECEMBER KEY FIGURES

	October 2004	November 2004	December 2004	Nov 04 to Dec 04
	$m	$m	$m	% change
Trend
Balance on goods & services	-2,349	-2,428	-2,500	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	13,008	12,985	12,953	-
Debits (imports of goods & services)	15,357	15,413	15,453	-
Seasonally Adjusted
Balance on goods & services	-2,364	-2,662	-2,374	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	12,918	12,912	13,063	1
Debits (imports of goods & services)	15,282	15,574	15,437	-1
. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services

• The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,500m in December 2004, an increase of $72m on the deficit in November.
• Goods and services credits fell $32m to $12,953m. Rural goods fell $74m (4%), while non-rural and other goods rose $48m (1%). Services credits fell $6m.
• Goods and services debits rose $40m to $15,453m. Intermediate and other goods rose $46m (1%), while capital goods fell $25m (1%) and consumption goods fell $2m. Services debits rose $21m (1%).

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,374m in December, a decrease of $288m on the deficit in November.
• Goods and services credits rose $151m (1%) to $13,063m. Non-rural and other goods rose $219m (3%), while rural goods fell $57m (3%). Services credits fell $11m.
• Goods and services debits fell $137m (1%) to $15,437m. Intermediate and other goods fell $88m (2%), capital goods fell $50m (2%) and consumption goods fell $29m (1%). Services debits rose $30m (1%).

• In original terms, the December balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,085m, a decrease of $1,374m on the deficit in November. Goods and services credits rose $678m (5%), while goods and services debits fell $696m (4%).
• The 2004 calendar year deficit on goods and services was $25,656m. The goods deficit was $24,394m and the services deficit was $1,262m.

• increased the deficit on goods and services for the five months to November 2004 by $18m
• decreased the deficit on goods and services for 2003-04 by $89m.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in December 2004 was a deficit of $2,500m, an increase of $72m on the deficit in November.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in December 2004 was a deficit of $2,374m, a decrease of $288m on the deficit in November.

The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to December 2004 was a deficit of $7,400m, an increase of $804m on the deficit of $6,596m for the three months to September 2004. However, if the more detailed seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the December quarter 2004 deficit was $6,928m, an increase of $181m on the revised September quarter 2004 deficit of $6,747m.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $32m between November and December to $12,953m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $151m (1%) between November and December to $13,063m. Non-rural and other goods rose $219m (3%), while rural goods fell $57m (3%) and services credits fell $11m.

Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $57m (3%) to $2,037m.

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $39m (2%) to $2,162m.

The main movement in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms was cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $55m (13%), in contrast to an average November to December rise of 11% over the previous three years.

An adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in November and December, which contributed about 3 percentage points towards the overall fall.

Partly offsetting these effects were:

• wool and sheepskins, up $23m (9%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 9% over the previous three years
• other rural, up $69m (8%), compared with an average November to December rise of 5% over the previous three years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $219m (3%) to $8,216m.

In original terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $518m (6%) to $8,530m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• other manufactures, up $96m (8%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 5% over the previous three years
• other goods, up $106m (16%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 1% over the previous three years
• transport equipment, up $116m (32%), compared with an average November to December rise of 17% over the previous three years
• machinery, up $119m (19%), compared with an average November to December rise of 10% over the previous three years.

• other mineral fuels, down $166m (17%), in contrast to an average November to December rise of 2% over the previous three years
• metal ores and minerals, up $126m (9%), compared with an average November to December rise of 17% over the previous three years.

SERVICES CREDITS

Seasonally adjusted, services credits fell $11m to $2,810m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this fall were:

• passenger and other transportation services, down $8m (1%)
• travel services, down $6m.

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $20m (1%) to $1,786m.

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $40m between November and December to $15,453m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $137m (1%) to $15,437m. Intermediate and other goods fell $88m (2%), capital goods fell $50m (2%) and consumption goods fell $29m (1%), while services debits rose $30m (1%).

Preliminary analysis shows that goods imports volumes, in seasonally adjusted terms, increased about 2.8% during the December quarter 2004. The Chain Laspeyres price index fell about 1.7% and the implicit price deflator fell about 2.1%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the December quarter 2004 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (5302.0).

Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $29m (1%) to $3,816m.

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $472m (11%) to $3,804m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $122m (25%), compared with an average November to December fall of 12% over the previous three years
• toys, books and leisure goods, down $124m (31%), compared with an average November to December fall of 28% over the previous three years.

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $49m (5%), compared with an average November to December rise of 2% over the previous three years
• consumption goods n.e.s., down $171m (13%), compared with an average November to December fall of 14% over the previous three years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $50m (2%) to $2,897m.

In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $124m (4%) to $3,009m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• civil aircraft, up $22m (20%), compared with higher November to December rises over the previous three years
• capital goods n.e.s., down $55m (12%), compared with an average November to December fall of 1% over the previous three years
• automatic data processing equipment, up $6m (1%), compared with an average November to December rise of 12% over the previous three years
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $71m (16%), compared with an average November to December fall of 10% over the previous three years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports fell $88m (2%) to $5,652m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods fell $163m (3%) to $5,729m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $43m (3%), compared with an average November to December rise of 17% over the previous three years (crude petroleum prices fell 9.5% between November and December)
• other goods, up $17m (4%), compared with an average November to December rise of 20% over the previous three years
• other parts for capital goods, down $89m (10%), compared with an average November to December fall of 2% over the previous three years
• parts for transport equipment, down $73m (12%), compared with an average November to December fall of 3% over the previous three years.

• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $45m (4%), compared with an average November to December fall of 8% over the previous three years
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $14m (17%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 6% over the previous three years
• organic and inorganic chemicals, up $52m (20%), compared with an average November to December rise of 16% over the previous three years
• iron and steel, up $12m (5%), compared with an average November to December rise of 1% over the previous three years.

SERVICES DEBITS

Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $30m (1%) to $3,072m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

• freight services, up $16m (2%)
• other services, up $12m (2%)
• passenger and other transportation services, up $4m (1%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits rose $24m (2%) to $1,563m.