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AUGUST KEY FIGURES

	June 2007	July 2007	August 2007	Jul 07 to Aug 07
	$m	$m	$m	% change
TREND
Balance on goods and services	-1 301	-1 368	-1 412	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	18 275	18 327	18 375	-
Debits (imports of goods & services)	19 576	19 695	19 787	-
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Balance on goods and services	-1 829	-883	-1 614	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	17 924	18 317	18 638	2
Debits (imports of goods & services)	19 753	19 200	20 252	5
. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on Goods and Services

• The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,412m in August 2007, an increase of $44m on the revised deficit in July.
• Goods and services credits rose $48m to $18,375m. Goods and services debits rose $92m to $19,787m.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,614m in August, an increase of $731m on the revised deficit in July.
• Goods and services credits rose $321m (2%) to $18,638m. Non-rural and other goods rose $372m (3%) while rural goods fell $73m (4%). Services credits rose $24m (1%).
• Goods and services debits rose $1,052m (5%) to $20,252m. Intermediate and other goods rose $459m (6%), capital goods rose $440m (14%) and consumption goods rose $139m (3%). Services debits rose $14m.

• In original terms, the August 2007 balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,946m, an increase of $1,073m on the revised deficit in July. Goods and services credits rose $435m (2%) and goods and services debits rose $1,508m (8%).
• In the two months to August, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $1.1b (5%) while rural goods were down $0.7b (15%) on the corresponding period in 2006-07.

• increased the deficit on goods and services for July 2007 by $33m
• increased the deficit on good and services for 2006-07 by $8m.

The seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of goods and services will be revised in the September 2007 issue of this publication as a result of the annual seasonal reanalysis. This reanalysis reviews the seasonal factors in more detail than is possible in the monthly processing cycle and assesses the appropriateness of any existing prior corrections.

Recently, the ABS has started to implement improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process.

From the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis, goods and services estimates will use concurrent seasonal adjustment with ARIMA modelling where applicable to reduce the level of revision to seasonally adjusted estimates. For more information on ARIMA modelling see Feature article : Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions, October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat. no. 1350.0).

AUSTRALIAN EXPORTERS

The publication, Number and Characteristics of Australian Exporters, 2006-07 (cat. no. 5368.0.55.001) is scheduled for release on 13 November 2007.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Tom Jebbink on Canberra (02) 6252 5540.