3106.0 - Demography News, Feb 2008  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 25/02/2008   
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Migration news

Migration, Australia 2006–07(cat. no. 3412.0)

Migration, Australia 2006-07 (cat. no. 3412.0) will be released on 26 March 2008. With record numbers being recorded for net overseas migration (NOM), 177,600 people in 2006-07, and the introduction of an improved method for calculating NOM, this years issue is a must-read. A chapter on internal mobility is also planned.

Two feature articles will be included:

  • Traveller characteristics of recent net overseas migration. This is based on preliminary data from the improved NOM system.
  • Permanent departures overseas — where are they going? For this article the ABS has used traveller movement data from the Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) collection.

An improved method of calculating net overseas migration (NOM) has been introduced

In 2007 the ABS introduced an improved method for calculating net overseas migration (NOM) for September quarter 2006 onwards. The time series of estimates from the previous method and the current time series based on the improved method are not comparable. Preliminary estimates for 2006–07 based on the new method are included in Migration, Australia 2006–07 (cat. no. 3412.0) and Table 2 of each issue of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) — issued quarterly. The time series using the previous method is now final and has finished at 30 June 2006.

The key change is the introduction of a '12/16 month rule' for measuring a person's residency in Australia, replacing the previous '12/12 month rule'. For further information on the improved method see Information Paper: Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration (cat. no. 3107.0.55.003) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

Internal migration – Let's talk

There is a growing need for a broader and more detailed range of information about interstate migrants. The data are required to address interstate migration flows, particularly for those states/territories that are showing high net outflows. In addition, information is required for states/territories with high net inflows to plan public infrastructure and community services.

In addition, measures of intrastate population transience and mobility, particularly for Indigenous Australians, are also sought. The data is required to assist in formulating appropriate policies to support the achievement of effective and efficient service delivery to small areas and local populations.

A strategic overview is planned for the estimation of internal migration in Australia (both interstate and intrastate). This is to include a data review and investigation into opportunities for using other data sources, methods and research into associated issues. While most sub-state migration data, albeit incomplete, will continue to be sourced from the five yearly Census of Population and Housing, proposals might investigate other data analysis opportunities.

Estimating future interstate migration — Expansion factors for 2006 to 2011

To estimate quarterly net interstate migration for 2006 to 2011, a combination of 2006 Census and Medicare movement data will be used to determine, for selected ages, 'expansion factors' for inflating quarterly Medicare changes of address data. These factors allow for the fact that changes of address advised to Medicare may not adequately cover all interstate movements of persons of these ages.

Using 2006 Census interstate migration information ABS will investigate the calculation of new expansion factors. The effects of different sets of expansion factors on intercensal error had they been used for the period 2001 to 2006 are examined. The best performing set of factors will be chosen for use in estimating interstate migration for 2006 to 2011. For information on expansion factors used for the previous intercensal period refer to Demography Working Paper: 2004/1, Review of Interstate Migration Method, May 2004 (cat. no. 3106.0.55.001).

The new expansion factors to be used for 2006 to 2011 will be introduced in March 2009 with the release of Australian Demographic Statistics, September Quarter 2008(cat. no. 3101.0).

Overseas arrivals and departures – What happened in 2007

In the year ended December 2007 there were a record 23.0 million crossings of Australia's international borders by travellers (original series). This represents 1,096 crossings per 1,000 Australian population. The majority of movements were short-term (96%). Short-term movements have a duration of stay in Australia or absence from Australia of less than one year, as stated on an international travellers passenger card. Ten years ago (1997) there were 14.9 million crossings by travellers, representing 803 crossings per 1,000 Australian population.