3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2016 to 2041 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/03/2019   
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Projected numbers of households and families are based on the number of persons projected to be living in particular household relationships, or living arrangements.


Assumptions

This publication contains three series of projections. Each series reflects a different assumption about future change in peoples' living arrangements. Living arrangement information from the last four Censuses (2001, 2006, 2011, 2016) are used to set the assumptions.

These assumptions are intended to illustrate a range of possible future outcomes. There is no certainty that any particular outcome will be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within these ranges.


Projection series, Assumptions used

Series I No change in living arrangement proportions. Living arrangement rates for 2016 remain constant to 2041.
Series II Smaller change in living arrangement proportions. The trend observed from 2001 to 2016 continues at the full rate of change for five years (to 2021), then half the rate for five years (to 2026) then one-quarter the rate for five years (to 2031), and then remains constant (to 2041).
Series III Larger change in living arrangement proportions. The trend observed from 2001 to 2016 continues at the full rate of change all the way until 2041.


The graph below illustrates this method using hypothetical data.



Projection Method

The assumptions are calculated by five year age groups and by 15 living arrangement types. These assumptions are calculated separately for Australia, each state and territory, and each capital city and rest of state area.

Projected living arrangement proportions for 2017 to 2041 are then applied to the 'series B' projected population from Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0). This gives the projected number of persons in each living arrangement. The projections for smaller areas were adjusted so that the totals sum to the Australia level projection. The use of a different underlying population is explored in the page 'What if...'.

Numbers of households and families are then derived from the projected living arrangements of the population.

For more detail on the method behind these projections, see the Technical Note - 'Method'.