POPULATION PROJECTIONS IN THE NEWS
Population projections for Tasmania covering the period 1999 to 2051 raised some media interest following their release on the 18th of August 2000 (Population Projections, Australia 1999-2101, Cat No 3222.0). They showed Tasmania’s population at between 231,000 and 436,000 in 2051. The population of Tasmania is currently estimated at 469,870 (31 December, 1999). These projections are published every two years by the ABS. 24 scenarios were analysed and involved various combinations of assumptions about mortality, fertility, and overseas and inter-state migration. The published results focussed on 3 of the 24 scenarios.
- Series I, which assumes the higher fertility level (1.80), high net overseas migration gain of 187 pa and a net interstate migration loss of 500 pa, produces a projection result for 2051 of 435,700.
- Series II assumes the lower fertility level (1.65), a medium net overseas migration and a net interstate migration loss of 2,000 pa. The projection result for 2051 would be 319,300.
- Series III assumes the lower fertility level (1.65), low overseas migration gaining 72 pa and a net interstate migration loss of 3,500. Under this scenario the projection result for 2051 would be 231,300.
The current situation
Tasmania’s population has been declining since 1996:
- Fertility in Tasmania has fallen from 2.23 babies per woman in 1975 to a level of about 1.80 in 1999.
- Net overseas migration has averaged a gain of only 200 persons pa in the 1990s.
- Interstate migration has averaged a net loss of 1,200 people over the last 28 years but currently Tasmania is losing about 3,000 per year.
Series 1, the series projecting the highest population levels (435,700 by 2051), reflects current fertility and overseas migrations, but assumes a sizeable reduction in the net interstate migration loss from the 1998-1999 level of 3,700 to 500 pa from 2003-2004.
Series 1 has the Tasmanian population starting to increase again in 2001-02 before plateauing at 485,200 in the early 2020s and then declining from 2023-24. Deaths will start to exceed the number of births from 2023-2024.
Assumptions underlying the 24 population projection scenarios:
- Mortality: The long-term mortality assumption for Tasmania is that life expectancy at birth will increase from the 1996-98 levels of 75.1 years for males and 80.4 years for females to 82.4 and 85.5 years respectively.
- Fertility: There are two long-term fertility assumptions. One assumption maintains a fertility level of 1.80 babies per woman throughout the projection period and the other assumes a scenario of fertility declining to 1.65 babies per woman in the next ten years. It then remains constant to the end of the projection period.
- Overseas migration: The long-term assumed levels of net overseas migration for Australia are 110,000, 90,000, 70,000 and zero. Tasmania’s share of these figures would be 187, 129, 72 and zero.
- Interstate migration: Three assumed levels of interstate migration are used. These are net losses of 500, 2,000 and 3,500.
Further information: Chris Sweeney (03) 6222 5853 or email email@example.com.
POPULATION ISSUES IN CONTEMPORARY AUSTRALIA: A TASMANIAN PERSPECTIVE
Last month Professor Graeme Hugo, from the National Key Centre for Social Applications of GIS, presented sessions on population issues relevant to Tasmania. A copy of his paper is available from the ABS web site. A paper copy can be obtained from Wally van Schie on 6222 5817 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
ABS SURVEY TO SHED LIGHT ON INTERNET USE
From January 2000, Australia will have access to reliable measures of Internet usage when the results are released of a quarterly Internet Activity Survey being conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Information collected in the survey will include subscriber numbers and churn rates, on-line time and amount of data downloaded, Internet Service Provider (ISP) contact locations, infrastructure, and technical support. The scope of the survey is all resident Australian Internet Service Providers i.e. all businesses that supply Internet connectivity services to individuals, businesses and other organisations.
"The ABS is responding to strong demand and support for regular statistics on Internet activity from government departments and industry users," said Sheridan Roberts, Director of Science and Technology Statistics. "Statistics from the survey will encourage a more informed policy debate which will enhance Australia's participation in the information economy. In particular, the survey will provide some basic industry and regional data on an important sector which is underpinning the emerging information economy," she said. "Output from the survey will also enable individual ISPs to compare the operations of their own business with that of the industry as a whole." A pilot survey will be undertaken for the June quarter 2000 with quarterly surveys being conducted from the September quarter. While data for the survey will initially be collected via paper forms, the ABS is investigating electronic data capture for future quarters.
For further information, contact:
Dave Martyn: (07) 3222 6118 or email email@example.com
The Tasmanian Statistical Advisory Committee consists of representatives from State Government agencies and the ABS and meets regularly to co-ordinate statistical needs of the State.
- Premier & Cabinet: Julie Campbell (Chair), Mathew Healey (Chair), Paul Sayer, Wanda Buza, Greg Brown, Roger Simpson, Lyn Andersch, Geoff Owen.
- Education: Paul Daniels, Andrew Smith, Daniel Albert
- Police: Sue Steinbauer, Michael Robinson
- Infrastructure, Energy and Resources: Graeme Vaughan, Geoff Green, Daniel Hanek
- Primary Industries, Water and Environment: Tony Port
- ABS: Steve Matheson, Rod Caswell, Cassy Short
- State Development: Inga Brkic, Sue Wragge, Lyle Borlase, Steven Kyne, Anita Griffin
- Justice: Jonathon Rees
- Treasury: Iain Meaney
- Audit Office: Geoff Fisher, Louise Newbery
- Health & Human Services: Anna Williams, Jeanette Lewis
CENSUS 2001: PROPOSED PRODUCTS AND SERVICES - TELL US WHAT YOU THINK.
Since early 1999, the ABS has been undertaking wide ranging consultations with users of census data. Initially, the ABS conducted focus groups with users to obtain qualitative information on the range and delivery of 1996 Census products and services.
The release of the information paper 2001 Census of Population and Housing: Proposed Products and Services (ABS Cat no. 2011.0) is the final round of the consultation process. Incorporating feedback from earlier rounds, the Information paper documents the full range of products and services that are proposed for release, as well as including their indicative release dates. The paper also aims to inform census users of the changes to census data concepts and classifications.
The information paper will be accompanied by a supplement and questionnaire. The supplement contains detailed information on the proposed format and table content of 2001 Census publications, the Community Profile Series and Internet Services. The questionnaire has been specifically drawn up so we can hear your views on the proposed products and services. You can complete the questionnaire in hardcopy, or online by selecting the Census button in the left margin of the ABS home page, but please let us have your input by the 15th of September. Click here to go to the Census 2001 page of the ABS web site.
In addition, the ABS welcomes comments on other output related issues that you might wish to be considered before the ABS finalises its output plans for the next census. It is important that we receive as many comments as possible so as to ensure that the census products and services developed are relevant to users' statistical requirements. The information from this consultation will be used to finalise the design, content and functionality of the full range of census products and services.
Need more information about the 2001 Census?
The newsletter Census Update is an excellent source of news and information about the census. It contains very useful articles in the form of tips and case studies - and it’s free. If you want your own copy delivered to you, contact Adam Czapracki on tel (03) 6222 5839 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
Alternatively you can view Census Update on the ABS web site by selecting Census on the ABS home page or see a copy at the larger public libraries.
NEW AUSTRALIAN STATISTICIAN - DENNIS TREWIN
"...a good democracy should have good official statistics which are accessible to the community."
The Federal Government has recently appointed Mr Dennis Trewin Australian Statistician following the retirement of Mr Bill McLennan.
Mr Trewin will bring a wealth of experience to the role of Australian Statistician. Mr Trewin was the Deputy Australian Statistician, prior to which he was the Deputy Government Statistician at Statistics New Zealand. Before joining Statistics New Zealand, Mr Trewin held senior positions in various areas of the ABS and he has broad experience in all areas of the organisation. Mr Trewin is also currently President-Elect of the International Statistical Institute.
On taking up his appointment Mr Trewin said: "Official Statistics play an essential role in ensuring we have informed decisions, and so the Australian community can monitor progress against the various decisions that are made. It follows that a good democracy should have good official statistics which are accessible to the community".
STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS IN RURAL STATISTICS
The ABS is extending its Agriculture Statistics Program from an industry/commodity focus to a broader integrated, rural statistics focus. This shift is occurring as government policy moves towards an integrated analysis of rural communities and rural Australia as a whole.
In addressing issues such as dryland salinity, governments need to understand the possible implications, not only on commodity production in the area, but on the economic and social impact of families and communities in the affected areas. The ABS plans to provide users with detailed integrated rural economic, social and environmental statistics, compiled in a way that enables the output to have the flexibility to meet multiple needs.
To achieve this vision, we intend to work towards the collection of the geographic location of rural economic, social and environment units as accurately as possible. We plan to draw together these three data streams, by closely aligning the timing of the five-yearly Agriculture Census with the five-yearly Population Census.
Accordingly, the ABS recently announced that the Agriculture Census is to be brought forward to 2001 and will incorporate a higher level of agriculture-based environment questions. This will allow, for example, the linking at local government area level of commodity production details with environmental protection measures and various social characteristics of farm households.
A user consultation program is in place to identify key issues for inclusion in the Agricultural Census, as well as key issues for developing the rural statistics framework. The ABS needs to establish exactly what rural statistics users
require and assemble an integrated framework of output data items that we will aim to provide. While we expect that much of the data would be available from within the ABS, there will be some data which the ABS does not collect.
Work commenced in February 2000 on creating a Directory of Rural Statistics (1142.0) which will identify information sources of rural statistics from private and public sector organisations. The directory will be released in January 2001.
If you would like to discuss any aspects of the strategic directions of rural statistics, contact Allan Nicholls on (02) 6252 5339 or email email@example.com.
AGRICULTURE: THE PRIMARY BUSINESS
This is the title of a new ABS 16-page brochure now available. It provides basic data on agriculture - livestock and livestock products, crops, fruit and vegetables, agricultural finance, trade and environmental issues. The brochure also lists the wide range of ABS publications available on these topics.
ABS AND THE NEW TAX SYSTEM
The ABS has outlined the impact of the new tax system on ABS statistics in the Information Paper, ABS Statistics and the New Tax System (Cat no 1358.0). The implications for price indexes are given in the paper Price Indexes and the New Tax System (Cat no 6425.0) released on 3 May 2000.
The new tax system will have no direct impact on the producer price indexes, except for the ‘Price Index of Materials
Used in House Building’ and the ‘Price Index of Materials Used in Building Other than House Building’. In these indexes the removal of the wholesale sales tax will have some downward influence on some prices.
The ‘Price Index of Materials Used in Coal Mining’, is also affected where changes to the diesel rebate scheme are expected to have a downward influence on diesel prices. The new tax system will have a direct impact on the consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI will continue to measure final transaction prices inclusive of indirect taxes, and hence will reflect the net effect of the tax changes.
The new tax system has important implications for Australian National Accounts, most of which will affect accounts from the September quarter 2000. Details of the adoption of the net method of recording and the impact on national accounts appear in an article ‘The New Tax System and the Australian National Accounts’ featured in Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product (Cat no 5206.0), released on 14 June, 2000.
HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE SURVEY 1998-99
Data from the latest Household Expenditure Survey (HES), conducted between July 1998 and June 1999, are now available in the publication Household Expenditure Survey, Australia: Summary of Results (Cat no. 6530.0). More detailed information will be released in Household Expenditure Survey, Australia: Detailed Expenditure Items (Cat no. 6535.0), which is due to be released towards the end of September 2000.
This will include details of expenditure in over 400 detailed categories of goods and services. In addition, a wide range of data items is available for specific data requests. The survey showed that the average Australian household spent $699 per week on goods and services in 1998-99, an increase of 16% ($97 per week) from the previous survey, which was conducted in 1993-94. In contrast, prices (as measured by the consumer price index) increased by 10%.
The survey also found that:
- Spending by low income households increased by 13% compared with an increase of 18% in high income households.
- On average, households spent 18% of total goods and services expenditure on food and non-alcoholic beverages ($127 a week), 17% of the total on transport ($118) and 14% on current housing costs, including rent, rates and interest payments on mortgages ($97).
- Average spending by households in rural areas ($616) was less than in capital cities ($747).
- Some of the most significant spending increases over the 5-year period were on motor vehicle purchases (up 57%), education fees (up 50%), child care (up 40%) and rent (up 18%).
- Hobart households spent more than any other capital city on bread ($6.68), sugar ($0.50) and newspapers ($3.71).
HES data are used to update the weighting pattern of the Consumer Price Index to ensure it adequately reflects the spending habits of the Australian population. The data are also used to assist governments and researchers in understanding economic and social conditions.
For more information contact Shelley Evans: tel 02 6252 7031, email firstname.lastname@example.org
TOURIST ACCOMMODATION SURVEY EXPANDED
The scope of the survey of Tourist Accommodation has been expanded for the four quarters of the year 2000 to include additional accommodation sectors. The expanded coverage will include caravan parks with 40 or more powered sites, visitor hostels with 25 or more beds, and letting entities managing 15 or more holiday flats, units and houses.
Data from the March Quarter 2000 collection were released on 7 July in Tourist Accommodation, Australia (Cat no. 8635.0) and in equivalent State products, including Tourist Accommodation, Small Area Data, Tasmania (Cat no. 8635.6.40.001).
For further information contact Paull Hoffman: tel (07) 3222 6201, email email@example.com
KEEN INTEREST IN ABS OUTPOSTED OFFICER SERVICE
Project proposals for ABS Outposted Officer assignments were invited from State Government agencies in late May.
Following the deadline for submissions, six proposals were received.
The bids from Department of State Development sought the assignment of an ABS officer to address performance monitoring issues for two important Tasmanian industries - Food and Tourism. The Food Industry submission underlined the difficulty of getting a whole industry view from current ABS statistics which are enterprise based within stages of production. The submission sought the allocation of a resource to populate a data view which includes all the value adding stages which contribute to the delivery of food to domestic and export markets. The Tourism Industry submission underlined the paucity of data about industry performance at the small area level and sought assistance in developing a collection model which might overcome this problem.
DPAC sought ABS expertise in developing a Local Government collection which will satisfy a range of uses thereby minimising reporting burden. DPAC also sought assistance with the benchmarking process for the Tasmania Together project. Tasmania Together is developing a long term social, economic and environmental plan for Tasmania. The plan will include a set of targets based on agreed benchmarks.
The DPIWE submission acknowledged the potential usefulness of DPIWE adminstrative datasets as Tasmania Together benchmarks and target performance measures and sought ABS assistance in undertaking a data management project within the agency.
The Department of Education sought ABS assistance to upgrade socioeconomic measures used in school funding decisions and for assessing the significance of student performances in literacy and numeracy testing. The initial agency bids totalled twenty-six months for a twelve month ABS resource. After a review of the level of resources required for each project , the Tasmanian Statistical Advisory Council (TSAC) was able to allocate a resource to four of the six projects. The Statistical Priorities Committee (SPC) will meet soon in order to place the TSAC priorities within a whole of government view of State statistical requirements. In the meantime the ABS has taken initial steps to fill a position to undertake the data management project at DPIWE. Mathew Charlton has been assigned to this project.
For further information about work of ABS outposted officers, call Cassy Short on (03) 6222 5828 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
ABS CONTINUES SUPPORT FOR TASMANIA TOGETHER
Work has continued within the ABS to support the Tasmania Together process. An ABS outposted officer will provide assistance during the benchmarking process advising on the development, refinement and review of proposed indicators as well as examining potential data sources for indicators. Another ABS outposted officer will indirectly assist the Tasmania Together process, through the identification of useful DPIWE administrative data collections.
The ABS's preparation for the benchmarking process, which will begin in August, has been primarily through the Identification of potential data sets, from both ABS and non-ABS data sources. These data sets are also being assessed for quality. This process also indirectly assists other ABS initiatives through the identification and evaluation of non-ABS data sources, namely the ABS Regional Statistics project as well as expanding the number of non-ABS data sources used by the Rural Statistics Centre.
Other ABS offices are also involved in projects examining indicators of progress. A national project, Measuring Australia’s Progress, aims to develop a comprehensive picture of the state of the nation and how it is placed to meet the needs of the future. The Victorian Office of the ABS is also undertaking a project examining Indicators of Wellbeing in Regional and Rural Communities. Officers involved in these projects will be available for ABS Tasmania to discuss relevant statistical issues that may arise out of the benchmarking process for Tasmania Together.
For further information on ABS involvement in Tasmania Together please contact Lisa Short on (03) 6222 5814 or email email@example.com.
TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTS
While tourism has shown strong growth in recent years there has been no official measure of tourism’s contribution to the economy. The Australian Tourism Satellite Account (ATSA), scheduled for release in October 2000, will provide such a measure for the reference period of 1997-98. The Tourism Satellite Account will provide a means by which the economic aspects of tourism can be shown and analysed separately within the structure of the main national accounts. In fact, one of the major features of a Tourism Satellite Account is that it is set in the framework of the rest of the economy, so that it is comparatively simple to determine its relative contribution to major national accounting aggregates and ‘other’ Industries.
The Tourism Satellite Account will contain two dimensions. The first dimension will show a range of monetary aggregates and will quantify the size of tourism relative to other types of economic activity. The second dimension presents non-monetary data e.g. employment, overseas arrivals and departures, and visitor characteristics so that they can be related to data in the first dimension.
Users should be aware that the Tourism Satellite Account will be a national set of tables. It may, however, be possible for the States and Territories to compile their own Tourism Satellite Account using the general methods adopted for the national Tourism Satellite Account, provided they have their own supply and use tables.
For further information on the Australian Tourism Satellite Account, contact Sean Thompson: tel (02) 6252 7121, email firstname.lastname@example.org.
AUSSTATS: INFORMATION ON-LINE
AusStats is a web based service available by subscription from the ABS. AusStats is updated daily at 11:30 am, providing full access to the latest statistics about the nation. AusStats allows access to a wide range of information:
- All ABS publications from 1998 onwards in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf)
- Multidimensional datasets in SuperTABLE format
- Census Basic Community Profiles to the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in Excel spreadsheet format
- Free summary information including Main Features, Release Advices and Australia Now and extensive linking between related information.
Finding information with AusStats is easy as AusStats contains extensive linking between related information, full text search and bookmarking facility and lots more.
AusStats is only available by subscription with subscription options starting at $1,080. To organise a subscription or to find out more about AusStats you can contact ABS on 1300 135 070, email email@example.com. Overseas clients please call 61 2 9268 4909.Visit the Ausstats home page on our web site.
14TH SERIES OF THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
The ABS will introduce new weights into the consumer price index (CPI), based on expenditures reported in the 1998-99 Household Expenditure Survey, from the September quarter 2000, thus introducing the 14th series CPI. The Information Paper: Price Indexes and The New Tax System (Cat no 6425.0) outlined the rationale and issues surrounding the introduction of the 14th Series CPI.
The ABS will release later in September 2000 the Information Paper: Introduction of the 14th Series Australian Consumer Price Index (Cat no 6456.0). This will include further discussion of the changes being introduced in the 14th series CPI; the final commodity classification and the weights that will apply; a concordance between the 13th and 14th Series CPI; and the revised publication format for the September quarter 2000 issue of the CPI publication. It will be followed by the release of the September quarter 2000 Consumer Price Index (Cat no 6401.0) in late October 2000.
For further information contact Keith Woolford, Director, Prices Development: tel 02 6252 6673, email firstname.lastname@example.org
SELECTED RECENT RELEASES
Stage of Production Producer Price Indexes, Australia 6426.0
Brings together existing producer price data for goods industries, including imports and exports, as well as incorporating newly developed indexes relating to a range of service industries.
Released on 24/7/2000 $17.00
A Portrait of Australian Exporters: A Report Based on the Business Longitudinal Survey, 1997-98 8154.0
Provides a detailed picture of Australia’s exporting businesses and how they compare with non-exporting businesses. It also describes their impact on various aspects of the labour market and provides information on how exporting businesses are using computers and the Internet.
Released on 22/8/2000 $25.00
Caring in the Community, Australia, 1998 4436.0
Provides information on informal carers from the 1998 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers, this publication is valuable for researchers in the fields of caring, disability and related community services. Topics included are need for, receipt and provision of assistance because of disability; characteristics of carers, and in particular primary carers; activities for which care is provided; the effects of caring on labour force experience and other aspects of the lives of primary carers; and the availability and use of support.
Released on 23/8/2000 $22.00
Australian Standard Geographical Classification (2000) 1216.0.15.001
The 2000 edition of the ASGC Electronic Structures (1216.0.15.001), effective from 1 July was released on 13 July 2000.
Available ASGC structures, in code and label format are Main, Statistical District, Statistical Region, and alphabetic list of Local Government Areas and Statistical Local Areas within States/Territories. The electronic structures are available for each edition of the ASGC (1216.0). The Urban/Locality and the Section of State structures of the ASGC are available separately for census years.
The 2000 ASGC manual (1216.0) is expected to be released on 28 September 2000.
ABS Environment Statistics Newsletter
The ABS has recently produced its first issue of the Environment Statistics Newsletter. It features news and developments in relation to work done by the ABS’s Environment and Energy Statistics Section and is to be produced each six months. If you would like to obtain a copy of the first issue, and/or be placed on our mailing list, please contact Boon Lim on tel 02 6252 6186, email email@example.com.
|Regional Director:||Steve Matheson 6222 5802|
|Information service: ||1300 135 070 Overseas clients please call 61 2 9268 4909.|
|Bookshop:||200 Collins St Hobart 6222 5979|
|Postal address:||GPO Box 66A, Hobart, 7001|
|ABS Web Site:||http://www.abs.gov.au|
|Statistical News Editor:||Brian Austen 6222 5971|
|TSAC, Outpostings:||Cassy Short 6222 5828|
|Information consultancy:||Jackie Saarinen 6222 5812|
|Survey design: ||Chris Carswell 6222 5783|
|State Government liaison:||Wendy Cannell 6222 5985|
|Economics and social statistics unit:||Keith Churchill 6222 5832|
|Population surveys: ||Bill Trethewie 6222 5911|
|Census management: ||Kevin Kingston 6222 5805|
|Agricultural Statistics Centre: ||Mike Raine 6222 5804|
is published quarterly by the ABS
If you are interested in subscribing, please contact:
Wally Van Schie
GPO Box 66A Hobart 7001
Phone: 6222 5971
Fax: 6222 5995
This page first published 3 October 2000, last updated 15 December 2006