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Newsletters - Demography News - March 2000
 
 

1 Migration

The big stories this year in Migration, Australia 1998-99 (Cat. No. 3412.0) released on 29 February 2000 are the high number of permanent arrivals from New Zealand, which have boosted up the overall number of settlers (one in five settlers were born in New Zealand) and the rapid increase in Australian-born people leaving Australia permanently. About half of permanent departures were born in Australia, and most were headed for the United Kingdom, New Zealand or the United States of America.

The latest data on the make-up of Australia's population is contained in the publication. At June 1999 about one quarter of the population were born overseas and of whom the largest groups were those born in the United Kingdom (26%), New Zealand (8%) and Italy (5%). People born in the South-East Asian and North-East Asian regions made up 19% of the overseas-born population.

The publication also contains an analysis of interstate migration, with a special article on the migration patterns of recently arrived migrants based on the 1996 Census, and projections of the overseas born population 65 years and over assuming no overseas migration.

In the September quarter 1999, net interstate migration was negative for Western Australia, the first time since 1993. For further details see Australian Demographic Statistics, September Quarter 1999 (Cat. No. 3101.0) released on 21 March 2000.

2 New insights into movers

Moving one's place of dwelling is an event that has directly involved over a quarter of the Victorian population in the three years to October 1999. From a population of 3,520,900 aged 18 years and over, 1,014,700 (29%) moved at least once in that period. This is one of the main findings in Population Mobility, Victoria (Cat. No. 3237.2) released on 24 March 2000.

Some of the most interesting data from this new Victorian survey concerns the reasons for moving. Housing is the main reason offered by 46% (424,700) of movers within Victoria, with the buying or building of new homes or the acquisition of different sized homes (bigger or smaller) being the strongest components. Life cycle reasons (eg. moving with family, becoming independent, moving in and out of relationships) were given by 20% of movers within Victoria. Employment was the most notable difference between Melbourne and country Victoria in respect of the main reason for moving (9% for Melbourne and 18% for Balance of Victoria). For movers from interstate and overseas, 45% (42,400) cited employment as the main reason for moving, followed by accessibility reasons (35% or 33,600) which includes education, being close to family and friends and lifestyle responses.

The survey estimates that of the more than a million Victorian movers, 34% moved less than five kilometres and another 35% moved between five and twenty kilometres. Only 11% said they had moved fifty kilometres or more within Victoria.

ABS is assessing interest Australia-wide for further survey work around the theme of population mobility. This will include reviewing the use of available population mobility data and whether there is need and user support for additional survey work in this field. If you would like to be involved in the consultation, please contact Jessica Enders (j.enders@abs.gov.au or 03 9615 7365).

3 Understanding Demographic Data

The aim of this one day course is to provide an understanding of the framework of demographic data and the processes which shape the population. The course covers the relationship between Census data and Estimated Resident Population data; components of population growth; projections; estimating the population of small areas; some tools for analysing demographic data and population dynamics and costs $300 per participant.

The course continue to be well received and is contributing to a better understanding and use of ABS's demographic data among a wide range of clients from Commonwealth, State and Local Government bodies, business and community groups.

The next courses are scheduled for 30 March in Canberra, 13 April in Adelaide and 17 April in Perth. If you would like more information or to register, please contact Tina Brozinic for the Canberra course (tina.brozinic@abs.gov.au or (02) 6207 0105), Natasha Radcliffe for the Adelaide course (natasha.radcliff@abs.gov.au or 08 8237 7347) and Sue Lee for the Perth course (sue.lee@abs.gov.au or (08) 9360 5935).

Specially tailored courses can also be run, one of which will be conducted for the City of Melbourne Council on 6 April.

4 Regional Population Growth

Approximately 60% of Australia's 627 Local Government Areas (LGAs) gained population in the year to June 1999. Most (72%) of Australia's population growth occurred in the State and Territory capital cities. At June 1999, 64% of Australians resided in capital cities compared to 63% in 1994. Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth were each home to 73% of their respective State populations compared to 63% for Sydney, 46% each for Brisbane and Darwin and 41% for Hobart.

Further information is available in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 1998-99 (Cat. No. 3218.0) which contains Statistical Local Area and Local Government Area population estimates.

5 Population estimates available for postal and other areas

Population estimates by age and sex are available for 1996 Census Collection Districts (CD) and CD-derived Postcodes (Postal Areas), or aggregations thereof . These have been calculated for 30 June 1996, 1997 and 1998, with 1999 data available in mid-2000. For a particular year, prices range from $100 for NT or ACT postal areas to $1100 for all postal areas in Australia.

6 Likelihood to marry or divorce

ABS estimates that the proportion of people who will ever be in a registered marriage is declining. If 1995-97 first marriage rates by age for never married persons, prevail in the future, it is estimated that 72% of men and 77% of women will marry in their lifetime. These proportions were down by 7 percentage points for men and 9 percentage points for women when compared with estimates based on 1985-87 first marriage rates.

In a 1995 study ABS also measured how many registered marriages are expected to end in divorce. The results show that about 8% of marriages are likely to be dissolved within five years of marriage, 19% within ten years, 32% within twenty years and 39% within thirty years.

Further information is available in Marriages and Divorces Australia, 1998 (Cat. No. 3310.0).

7 Households

There were 7.2 million households in Australia at June 1999, one in four being single person households. For further information see Australian Demographic Statistics, September Quarter 1999 (Cat. No. 3101.0).

A new working paper on household estimates is now available. It discusses the household estimates presently produced by the ABS and investigates several options for the production of post-censal small area household estimates. See Demography Working Paper 2000/1: Production of Post-Censal Small Area Estimates of Households - A Preliminary Investigation available on the ABS web site at http://www.abs.gov.au and select Themes/Demography/ABS Demography Working Papers.

8 Population, family and household projections

ABS produces a range of demographic projections based on specified assumptions. These are published on a regular basis and can also be produced for individual clients where clients agree to the assumptions and cost involved.
  • State/Territory population projections, 1997-base to 2051, were published in Population Projections 1997 to 2051 (Cat. No. 3222.0). A total of 18 alternative projections series were produced using different combinations of assumptions for fertility, mortality, net overseas migration and internal migration. These state/territory projections are also available for Capital City Statistical Division/Balance of State for all States and the Northern Territory.
  • Small area population projections, 1997-base to 2017, are available by age and sex for Statistical Local Areas (SLA), 1996 Census Collection Districts (CD), and CD-derived Postcodes ("Postal Areas"), or aggregations thereof where the client agrees to the assumptions involved. Prices for SLA projections range from $250 for a single SLA, to $2,500 for all SLAs in NSW, to $5,000 for all SLAs in Australia.

    Alternative series of small area population projections are prepared by various State/Territory Government entities, with the most recently released being for Victoria, Queensland and ACT. Alternative small area population projections can also be produced on request to ABS .
  • State/Territory household and family projections, 1996-base to 2021, were published in Household and Family Projections, Australia 1996 to 2021 (Cat. No. 3236.0). These projections are based on assumptions about changing living arrangements of the population and 3 alternative series have been produced.
  • Indigenous population projections, 1996-base to 2006, by age, sex and State/Territory were published in Experimental Projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Projection 1996 to 2006 (Cat. No. 3231.0). These projections provide the best available indication of the current size of the Indigenous population.
  • Projections of the overseas born population 65 years and over assuming no overseas migration have been published in Migration, Australia 1998-99 (Cat. No. 3412.0).

9 Email delivery of ABS publications now available by subscription

All monthly and quarterly printed publications to be released in 2000 are available for email delivery. For further information see the ABS web site at http://www.abs.gov.au , email subscriptions@abs.gov.au or call 1300 366 323.


10 What the ABS Demography Program produces

The demography program produces estimates of the total population by age, sex, country of birth, marital status and geographical distribution, estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and estimates of families and households. Regular statistics are also produced on births, deaths, marriages, divorces, overseas arrivals and departures, and internal migration. Projections of population, families and households according to specified demographic assumptions are published on a regular basis and produced for individual clients. Benchmarks are provided for ABS and other population surveys. In addition to reporting on these statistics, courses on understanding demographic data are conducted and an email newsletter is sent to major clients.

11 Key contacts

If you seeking demography or any other ABS data, you can:
To subscribe to publications on a regular basis, please call 1300 366 323.

To order particular ABS publication(s), please call (02) 6252 5249.

If you wish to discuss issues and/or data, contacts are as outlined below.

Demographic issues
Fertilitykatrina.phelan@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 6573
Mortalitypaul.atyeo@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 7612
Migration - international and internalchris.mason@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 6522
Marriages and divorces- generaldot.russell@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 7030
Marriages and divorces - registeredanne.ward@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 6296
Households and familiessue.taylor@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 6141
Indigenous - generalkevin.beere@abs.gov.au(08) 8943 2141
Indigenous - estimates and projectionsphil.browning@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 7083
General or othershail.jain@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 6557

Demographic data
Population estimates - Statecameron.beaton@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 6420
Population estimates - Sub-Stateandrew.howe@abs.gov.au(08) 8237 7370
Population projectionsjim.elliott@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 5580
Indigenous population estimates and projectionsphil.browning@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 7083
Household estimatespeter.routh@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 6027
Household and family projectionssue.taylor@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 6141
Service population estimatessue.lee@abs.gov.au(08) 9360 5935
Births, deaths, marriages and divorcesjr.alexander@abs.gov.au(07) 3222 6047
Overseas arrivals and departuresamanda.dobson@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 5640
General or othermatthew.berger@abs.gov.au(02) 6252 6639



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