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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2015 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/08/2015   
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ALL MOVEMENTS

In the year ended June 2015, there were 33.9 million crossings of Australia's international borders (original series). This represents 1.4 crossings per person in the Australian population. Ten years ago (2004-05) there were 20.7 million border crossings, representing 1.0 crossings per person in the Australian population. The majority of movements in 2014-15 were short-term (96.8%). Short-term movements have an intended duration of stay in Australia, or absence from Australia, of less than one year.

Just over half of the total movements in 2014-15 were arrivals to Australia (17.0 million). They were comprised of 9.2 million Australian residents returning after a short-term absence from Australia, 7.1 million visitors arriving for a short-term stay and 683,600 permanent and long-term arrivals.

Just under half of the total movements in 2014-15 were departures from Australia (16.9 million). They were comprised of 9.2 million Australian residents departing short-term, 7.3 million visitors departing Australia after a short-term stay and 391,200 permanent and long-term departures.

Short-term resident departures have continued to exceed short-term visitor arrivals since the year ended June 2008 when departures overtook arrivals for the first time in 22 years (see figure below). In the year ended June 2015, short-term resident departures exceeded short-term visitor arrivals by 2.1 million movements, lower than the difference in 2013-14 (2.3 million movements). In the year ended June 2008, resident departures were higher than visitor arrivals by only 128,100 movements.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS AND RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Original Series


A traveller may cross Australia's borders many times in a year and each movement is counted in these statistics. For more information, see the 1st paragraph of the 'Permanent and Long-Term Movements' section in the Main Features.


Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates

Trend estimates provide the best approach to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series.

Over the ten year period ending June 2015, trend estimates, while showing monthly fluctuations, have recorded long-term growth. Between the beginning of 2007 and mid 2008, the series was relatively stable but then fluctuated from June 2008 to the end of 2009, possibly due to the combined effect of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the outbreak of swine flu. The highest point in the series was in June 2015 (612,700 movements) while the lowest point was in November 2008 (443,500 movements).

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table shows, in trend terms, the top ten source countries for short-term visitor arrivals in 2004-05 compared with 2014-15. New Zealand remained the largest contributor of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in 2014-15, recording 1.3 million movements. Of the top ten source countries in the year ending June 2015, short-term visitor arrivals from India recorded the strongest growth over the ten year period, with a percentage change of 282.5%. It was followed by China (254.4%), and Malaysia (102.5%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Japan (53.8%).


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Financial Years, Trend Series

2004-2005
2014-2015
Trend
Trend
2004-05 to 2014-15
Source countries(a)
'000
Source countries(b)
'000
Trend % change

New Zealand
1 074.9
New Zealand
1 268.0
18.0
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
703.3
China
933.7
254.4
Japan
699.1
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
666.0
-5.3
United States of America
441.3
United States of America
577.2
30.8
China
263.5
Singapore
375.1
50.8
Singapore
248.8
Malaysia
331.5
102.5
Korea, South
239.7
Japan
322.8
-53.8
Malaysia
163.7
India
220.4
282.5
Hong Kong
147.3
Korea, South
214.9
-10.3
Germany
145.3
Hong Kong
207.1
40.6
Total
5 365.1
Total
7 122.0
32.7

(a) Top 10 source countries based on trend estimates for 2004-05.
(b) Top 10 source countries based on trend estimates for 2014-15.
(c) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
Seasonally adjusted estimates

Irregular impacts on the short-term visitor arrivals series are demonstrated by the seasonally adjusted series. The graph above shows that over the ten year period ending June 2015, a number of large variations were evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. The increase in movements in July 2008 reflects the large arrivals due to World Youth Day held in Sydney and in June 2013 reflects the spectators visiting for the 2013 British and Irish Lions rugby union tour.


Original estimates

In original terms, a record 7.1 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia in the year ended June 2015. The next highest recorded number of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia was in the year ended June 2014 (6.7 million). Ten years ago (2004-05), 5.4 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia.

Age and sex

When 2004-05 and 2014-15 are compared, the peak age group for all short-term visitor arrivals remained the 25-29 years age group (contributing 10.5%, and 10.9% respectively). More recently, the age distribution of visitors arriving has been older, with the proportion of travellers within the 50-69 years age group increasing from 26.0% in 2004-05 to 29.5% in 2014-15. Conversely, the proportion travelling who were aged 25-49 years decreased from 47.2% in 2004-05 to 43.6% in 2014-15. The median age for all short-term visitor arrivals increased from 38 years in the year ended June 2005, to 40 years in the year ended June 2015.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Financial Years

2004-2005
2009-2010
2014-2015
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Age group (years)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

0-4
114.1
2.1
118.7
2.1
150.3
2.1
5-9
135.8
2.5
128.2
2.3
172.0
2.4
10-14
183.9
3.4
158.0
2.8
213.8
3.0
15-19
312.2
5.8
297.1
5.3
355.5
5.0
20-24
486.0
9.0
566.9
10.1
660.1
9.3
25-29
565.5
10.5
631.8
11.3
773.9
10.9
30-34
545.3
10.1
506.8
9.1
665.2
9.4
35-39
481.9
9.0
460.1
8.2
540.2
7.6
40-44
482.6
9.0
449.8
8.0
559.4
7.9
45-49
460.9
8.6
476.2
8.5
557.3
7.8
50-54
447.4
8.3
472.2
8.4
615.4
8.7
55-59
422.4
7.9
435.9
7.8
578.5
8.1
60-64
311.7
5.8
387.5
6.9
508.4
7.2
65-69
216.2
4.0
259.4
4.6
392.4
5.5
70-74
118.6
2.2
142.5
2.5
212.3
3.0
75 and over
89.0
1.7
103.2
1.8
148.7
2.1
Total
5 373.6
100.0
5 594.4
100.0
7 103.3
100.0


For male short-term visitors arriving from overseas, the peak age group moved from 30-34 years in 2004-05 (10.6%) to 25-29 years in 2014-15 (10.2%). For females the peak age group of 25-29 years remained constant while the contribution fell from 11.7% in 2004-05 to 11.6% in 2014-15. The median ages for males increased from 39 years in 2004-05 to 40 years in 2014-15. The median age for females increased from 37 years in 2004-05 to 39 years in 2014-15.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Age and Sex



A higher proportion of women than men arrived in Australia for short-term stays in the year ended June 2015. Previously, more males than females arrived for short-term stays. The short-term visitor arrival sex ratio (the number of male arrivals per 100 female arrivals) was 103 males in 2004-05 and 98 males in 2014-15. The highest sex ratios were recorded in the 40-44 years age group in both 2004-05 (137 males) and in 2014-15 (123 males). The lowest sex ratio was recorded in the 20-24 years age group in both 2004-05 (76 males) and in 2014-15 (79 males per 100 female arrivals). The following graph illustrates, for short-term visitor arrivals, the sex ratio for each age group.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Sex ratios at age



Main reason for journey and duration of stay

In the year ended June 2015, the most frequently cited main reason for journey to Australia by short-term visitor arrivals was holiday (46%). This was followed by visiting friends and relatives (28%) and business (9%). While the most cited main reasons for journey in the year ended June 2005 were the same, the proportions were different; holiday (48%), visiting friends and relatives (27%) and business (15%). The median duration of stay for all short-term visitor arrivals was 10 days in 2004-05 and 11 days in 2014-15.

State of stay

New South Wales was the intended state of stay for 38% of all short-term visitors to Australia in the year ended June 2015. The other state/territory shares were Queensland with 22%, Victoria (24%), Western Australia (11%), South Australia (3%), and Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory (1% each). In 2004-05, the intended state of stay proportions for short-term visitor arrivals were similar, with some differences recorded for specific states. They were New South Wales contributing 39%, Queensland (29%), Victoria (17%), Western Australia (9%) and South Australia (2%) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia.


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates

Trend estimates provide the best approach to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series. The trend estimate series for short-term resident departures has shown long-term growth over the last 10 years ending June 2015. The high point in the series was May 2015 (778,300 movements) while the low point was in October 2005 (391,500 movements). Breaks were recorded in the series at October 2005, December 2006, and April 2009. For more information, see paragraph 26 of the Explanatory Notes.
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia



The following table shows, in trend terms, the top ten destination countries for short-term resident departures in 2004-05 compared with 2014-15. New Zealand remained the most popular destination in 2014-15, with Australians making 1.2 million journeys there. Of the top ten destination countries in the year ending June 2015, short-term resident departures to India recorded the strongest growth over the ten year period, with a percentage change of 228.5%. It was followed by Indonesia (223.0%), and Thailand (194.0%).


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Financial Years, Trend Series

2004-2005
2014-2015
Trend
Trend
2004-05 to 2014-15
Destination countries(a)
'000
Destination countries(b)
'000
Trend % change

New Zealand
832.3
New Zealand
1 237.5
48.7
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
402.2
Indonesia
1 118.7
223.0
United States of America
396.3
United States of America
980.8
147.5
Indonesia
346.4
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
552.6
37.4
China
214.5
Thailand
549.5
194.0
Fiji
190.3
China
413.2
92.6
Thailand
186.9
Singapore
361.7
112.7
Singapore
170.0
Fiji
335.5
76.3
Hong Kong
169.3
India
280.7
228.5
Malaysia
155.4
Japan
268.3
177.3
Total
4 576.9
Total
9 221.5
125.7

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on trend estimates for 2004-05.
(b) Top 10 destination countries based on trend estimates for 2014-15.
(c) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
Seasonally adjusted estimates

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. During the ten years ending June 2015, the seasonally adjusted estimate has mainly recorded strong growth. Strong movement in the series from early 2008 onwards coincided with the Global Financial Crisis, the high Australian dollar, cut-price air fares and the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and March/April 2009.

Original estimates

In original terms, there was a record 9.2 million short-term resident departures in the year ending June 2015. The next highest recorded number of short-term resident departures was in the year ended June 2014 (9.0 million). Ten years ago (2004-05), there were 4.6 million short-term resident departures.

Age and sex

When 2004-05 and 2014-15 are compared, the peak age group for all short-term resident departures changed from 45-49 years in 2004-05 (10.5%) to 30-34 years in 2014-15 (9.4%). More recently, the age distribution of Australian residents travelling overseas has been older, with the proportion travelling in the 50-69 years age group increasing from 27.7% in 2004-05 to 29.5% in 2014-15. Conversely, the proportion travelling who were aged 25-49 years age decreased from 48.2% in 2004-05 to 44.2% in 2014-15. The median age for all short-term resident departures remained constant at 41 years.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Financial Years

2004-2005
2009-2010
2014-2015
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Age groups (years)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

0-4
133.0
2.9
235.8
3.5
339.3
3.7
5-9
138.7
3.0
213.3
3.2
314.8
3.4
10-14
175.7
3.8
256.5
3.8
325.7
3.5
15-19
201.5
4.4
316.0
4.7
399.0
4.3
20-24
297.4
6.5
455.1
6.7
595.1
6.4
25-29
395.3
8.6
625.0
9.2
827.9
9.0
30-34
440.9
9.6
589.8
8.7
868.5
9.4
35-39
418.4
9.1
608.0
9.0
767.4
8.3
40-44
472.3
10.3
598.9
8.9
807.7
8.7
45-49
481.5
10.5
672.4
9.9
808.9
8.8
50-54
458.6
10.0
638.1
9.4
844.5
9.1
55-59
402.3
8.8
568.1
8.4
767.2
8.3
60-64
252.2
5.5
456.1
6.7
632.9
6.9
65-69
154.5
3.4
269.4
4.0
483.7
5.2
70-74
85.1
1.9
142.2
2.1
261.5
2.8
75 and over
74.6
1.6
117.2
1.7
192.6
2.1
Total
4 581.8
100.0
6 761.7
100.0
9 236.6
100.0



For male Australian residents departing overseas for a short-term stay abroad, the peak age group moved from 40-44 years in 2004-05 (11.3%) to 30-34 years in 2014-15 (9.5%). For females, the peak age group was 45-49 years in 2004-05 (9.9%) and 25-29 years in 2014-15 (9.6%). The median age for males and females increased to 42 years and 40 years respectively in the year ended June 2015. The comparative medians were 41 years and 39 years in the year ended June 2005.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Age and Sex


The disparity between the number of Australian male and female residents departing Australia for short-term stays abroad is decreasing. The short-term resident departures sex ratio (the number of male departures per 100 female departures) was 117 males in 2004-05 compared with 110 males in 2014-15. The highest sex ratio was recorded in the 40-44 years age group in both 2004-05 (145 males) and 2014-15 (130 males).

The lowest sex ratios were in the 20-24 years age groups in both 2004-05 (81 males) and in 2014-15 (85 males). The following graph illustrates, for short-term resident departures, the sex ratio for each age group.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Sex ratios at age


Main reason for journey and duration of stay

In the year ended June 2015, the most frequently cited main reason for journey from Australia by short-term resident departures was holiday (59%). This was followed by visiting friends and relatives (24%) and business (9%). While the most cited main reasons for journey in the year ended June 2004 were the same, the proportions were different; holiday (55%), visiting friends and relatives (22%) and business (10%). The median duration of stay for all short-term resident departures has decreased from 15 days in 2004-05 to 14 days in 2014-15.

State of residence

The largest contributors to short-term travel overseas in the year ended June 2015 were the most populous states. Residents of New South Wales contributed the highest proportion of travellers (34%), followed by Victoria (25%), Queensland (17%), Western Australia (15%), South Australia (5%), the Australian Capital Territory (2%), and Tasmania and the Northern Territory (1% each). In 2004-05, the state/territory of residence proportions for all short-term resident departures were similar, with some differences recorded for specific states. They were New South Wales contributing 39%, Victoria (24%), Queensland (17%), Western Australia (12%), and South Australia contributing 5% of all short-term resident departures from Australia in 2004-05.

Movement rates

In the year ending June 2015, there was considerable variation in the rate of movement for short-term resident departures (the number of movements per 1,000 state or territory population) across the states and territories. Western Australia had the highest movement rate (541 movements per 1,000 population) followed by the Australian Capital Territory (436), the Northern Territory (431), New South Wales (415), Victoria (393), Queensland (333), South Australia (258) and Tasmania (180). Overall, the Australian movement rate was 391 movements per 1,000 population.

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimated changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.

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Commonwealth of Australia 2015

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