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Indigenous Population Projections
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    Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

    Indigenous population projections are produced once every five years. New projections are produced in order to take advantage of the most recent information on components of population change and to take account of the latest estimates of the resident population and thereby service the needs of users with up-to-date population projections.

    Ad hoc projections are produced on a consultancy basis where the client agrees to the assumptions and to meet the costs involved.

    For more information see 3228.0 - Demographic Estimates and Projections: Concepts, Sources and Methods

    The projections are used to help address a large range of issues including those associated with retirement income, population, housing and parliamentary representation.



    Conceptual framework
    There are many techniques which may be used for population projections, ranging from simple extrapolations through broad economic, social and time-series analysis to detailed component methods. The choice of technique largely depends on the resources at hand and the availability of reliable data.

    The ABS uses the cohort-component method which begins with a base population for each sex by single years of age and advances it year by year by applying assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. This procedure is repeated for each year in the projection period for each State and Territory and for Australia. The resulting population projections for each year for the States and Territories, by sex and single year of age, are adjusted to sum to the Australian results.

    The Indigenous population projections contain an additional component - the propensity to identify as Indigenous. Also, the fertility component comprises two parts: (i) births to Indigenous women and (ii) births to non-Indigenous woman and Indigenous men (paternity rate).

    The projection results published by the ABS are not intended as predictions or forecasts, but are illustrations of growth and change in the population which would occur if the assumptions about future demographic trends prevail over the projection period. As such, it is the assumptions used which have the greatest baring on the final projected outcomes.

    While the assumptions for the projections are formulated on the basis of an assessment of past demographic trends, both in Australia and overseas, and their likely future dynamics, there is no certainty that any of the assumptions will or will not be realised. In addition, no assessment has been made of changes in non-demographic conditions.

    Accordingly, alternative projections are produced in recognition of this uncertainty and to provide users with a range of options. For example, the publication Experimental Projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population, 1996-2006 (Catalogue no. 3231.0) contains two alternative series based on alternative assumptions of the propensity to identify as Indigenous. One assumption was used for each of fertility, mortality and migration.

    For more information on constructing population projections see 3228.0 - Demographic Estimates and Projections: Concepts, Sources and Methods

    Main outputs
    The projected indigenous population by single year of age, sex and State/Territory at 30 June of each year in the projection period.

    The Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC) is used.

    Other concepts (summary)

    New South Wales
    South Australia
    Western Australia
    Northern Territory
    Other (specify below)

    Comments and/or Other Regions
    Projections for other areas can be produced on request.

    5 Yearly

    Frequency comments

    Experimental Indigenous population projections were first published by the ABS in May 1996. These projections were based on results from the 1991 Census of Population and Housing and covered the period 1991-2001. They were produced for Australia and the States/Territories.

    The second set of experimental Indigenous projections was published in July 1998, based on results from the 1996 Census of Population and Housing and covered the period 1996-2006. Projections for Australia and the States/Territories were produced.

    Base Year
    Month/Year published
    Time Period
    Population projected
    Catalogue number
    May 1996
    National and States/Territories
    July 1998
    National and States/Territories


    Data availability comments

    09/01/2006 01:59 PM

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