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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Aug 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/09/2005   
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NOTES

DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for August 2005 will be released on 6 October 2005.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off or irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates at the current end of the series are subject to revision due to additional original information becoming available. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

The seasonally adjusted and trend series have been updated following the normal annual review of the seasonal adjustment process. The annual review provides the opportunity to confirm the extent to which movements are due to seasonal or irregular influences. As a result, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of a small number of series have been revised. Additionally, as is normal, seasonally adjusted and trend series estimates may show minor revisions.


As a result of the review, the seasonally adjusted series for short-term visitor arrivals from China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province) is now available for publication.



JULY 2005 ESTIMATES OF SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM

Short-term visitor arrivals of residents of the United Kingdom were overstated in the previous issue (July 2005) of this publication. This overstatement was traced to a problem in the program used by the Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs to extract data from their Travel and Immigration Processing System, and has now been corrected.

Revised estimates for short-term visitor arrivals from the United Kingdom are presented in this issue, and were also published in the July 2005 issue of Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0).



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for August 2005 (458,000 movements) increased by 0.4% compared with July 2005 (456,300 movements). This followed a monthly decrease of 0.1% for June 2005 and an increase of 0.2% for July 2005.


Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.7% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2005 (461,200 movements). Prior to that month, short-term visitor arrivals had increased each month from February 2004 (424,800 movements).



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for August 2005 (467,500 movements) increased by 2.1% compared with July 2005 (458,000 movements). This followed monthly increases of 2.1% for June 2005 and 1.2% for July 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 432,500 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2005.

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT, VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - August 2005

Aug 05
Jul 05 to Aug 05
Aug 04 to Aug 05
'000
% change
% change

Trend
458.0
0.4
4.8
Seasonally adjusted
467.5
2.1
. .
Original
432.5
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence(b)

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul 05
Aug 05
Jul 05 to Aug 05
Aug 04 to Aug 05
Jul 05
Aug 05
Jul 05 to Aug 05
Aug 05
Country of residence
'000
'000
% change
% change
'000
'000
% change
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
91.7
90.9
-0.8
4.0
91.7
91.0
-0.7
100.8
Total
102.8
102.1
-0.6
4.5
102.7
102.6
-
110.5
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
12.7
13.0
2.2
11.9
13.4
13.3
-1.0
11.7
Netherlands
4.3
4.4
2.3
10.1
4.3
4.8
12.3
3.1
Sweden
3.0
3.0
2.1
14.3
2.7
3.4
26.5
1.6
Switzerland
3.6
3.6
0.4
9.9
3.7
3.6
-3.8
1.9
United Kingdom
59.2
59.6
0.6
5.3
59.5
62.2
4.5
42.1
Total
100.1
101.2
1.1
8.0
102.0
104.8
2.7
74.4
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
4.1
4.2
1.2
5.6
3.7
4.2
11.3
6.4
Total
10.0
10.2
1.6
9.5
9.5
10.7
12.5
12.7
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
Total
6.0
6.1
1.6
13.4
5.7
6.7
17.5
11.0
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
6.6
6.4
-2.7
-8.2
6.2
6.5
4.0
5.1
Malaysia
14.5
14.7
1.4
-2.7
13.9
15.4
10.7
13.4
Philippines
2.9
2.9
0.7
13.1
2.8
3.1
9.8
2.7
Singapore
22.8
22.8
-0.4
11.2
23.8
21.7
-8.8
15.2
Thailand
6.5
6.5
0.4
3.5
6.6
6.5
-1.6
4.9
Total
55.8
55.8
-
4.3
55.7
55.6
-0.1
43.6
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
21.1
21.5
1.5
2.0
22.5
21.8
-3.1
19.7
Japan
51.9
52.2
0.6
-13.0
53.6
54.5
1.7
62.6
Korea
21.3
21.0
-1.3
15.7
20.0
20.6
2.9
18.1
Taiwan
9.5
9.4
-1.4
13.9
9.8
9.5
-2.6
11.0
Total
118.3
118.8
0.4
-
120.0
121.5
1.2
125.7
AMERICAS
Canada
8.9
9.0
0.7
5.3
8.5
9.5
11.2
6.6
United States of America
38.3
38.5
0.5
5.3
38.3
38.9
1.7
33.8
Total
50.3
50.6
0.6
6.7
49.7
51.9
4.4
43.0
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
4.1
4.2
0.1
1.9
3.9
4.4
14.0
3.9
Total
5.5
5.6
0.5
3.3
5.1
6.1
18.2
5.3
Total(c)
456.3
458.0
0.4
4.8
458.0
467.5
2.1
432.5

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as AusStats time series spreadsheets.
(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are estimates based on passenger card data.
(c) Includes Southern and Central Asia and not stated/inadequately described.

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