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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Nov 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/01/2006   
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NOVEMBER KEY FIGURES

TAKE CARE!
A trend break has been introduced. See CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE in the NOTES section below.

Nov '05
Oct '05 to Nov '05
Nov '04 to Nov '05
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
453.6
-0.4
0.8
Seasonally adjusted
441.1
-4.0
. .
Original
472.7
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend
390.7
-0.1
3.1
Seasonally adjusted
392.0
2.1
. .
Original
358.8
. .
. .

. . not applicable

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



NOVEMBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during November 2005 (453,600 movements) decreased by 0.4% compared with October 2005. This followed monthly decreases of 0.1% for September 2005 and 0.3% October 2005.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.7% lower than when the series last peaked in August 2005 (456,800 movements) and 0.8% higher than in November 2004.
  • During November 2005, short-term resident departures (390,700 movements) decreased by 0.1% compared with October 2005 (391,200 movements). This followed little change for September 2005.
  • Due to the decline in short-term resident departures to Indonesia following the 1 October 2005 bombing in Bali, a trend break has been introduced. See CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE in the NOTES section below and Explanatory Note 22.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during November 2005 (441,100 movements) decreased by 4.0% compared with October 2005. This followed a monthly decrease of 2.0% for September 2005 and a monthly increase of 0.6% for October 2005.
  • Short-term resident departures for November 2005 (392,000 movements) increased by 2.1% compared with October 2005 and followed a monthly increase of 2.4% for September 2005 and a monthly decrease of 6.1% for October 2005.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 472,700 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 358,800 short-term resident departures from Australia during November 2005.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
December 2005 7 February 2006
January 2006 7 March 2006
February 2006 5 April 2006
March 2006 9 May 2006
April 2006 1 June 2006
May 2006 6 July 2006



EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for December 2005 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 19 January 2006. These estimates can be accessed by going to the AusStats web page <http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats> and selecting Publications & Data and then Main Features. Select 34 Migration and then select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations in this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 12 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

October 2005 trend break


Short-term departures of Australian residents to Indonesia declined from September 2005 to October 2005 following the 1 October 2005 bombings in Bali. A similar decrease was observed in the series following the October 2002 bombings in Bali. Because of the similar circumstances and magnitudes of the recent declines when compared with the 2002 event, the ABS has introduced a trend break in the short-term resident departures trend series from October 2005. The break was applied to the Indonesia, total South-east Asia and total trend series. The ABS will continue to monitor movements in these series. See Explanatory Note 22.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in November 2005 (453,600 movements) are 0.8% higher than in November 2004. Movements for November 2005 show the third consecutive decrease in the series. Short-term visitor arrivals are currently 0.7% lower than when the series last peaked in August 2005 (456,800 movements).


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during November 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with October 2005 and November 2004.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - November 2005

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Oct 05 to Nov 05
Nov 04 to Nov 05
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
88.0
82.6
81.2
-1.1
-0.6
United Kingdom
56.0
53.8
66.1
-1.3
-1.0
Japan
60.9
60.8
64.9
2.0
-2.7
United States of America
35.0
33.6
34.2
-2.1
-3.6
China
25.0
27.8
29.2
3.8
5.9
Singapore
21.5
19.4
26.9
-2.3
-3.2
Korea
20.1
19.6
22.4
-1.1
8.3
Malaysia
13.7
11.8
14.6
-1.3
-9.7
Germany
12.2
12.2
14.1
-1.0
2.1
Hong Kong
12.8
12.8
10.7
-1.8
3.9



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia in November 2005 (390,700 movements) are 3.1% higher than in November 2004 and 0.1% lower than in October 2005. The series last peaked in September 2005 (401,500 movements). A trend break was introduced from October 2005 (see Explanatory Note 22).


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during November 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with October 2005 and November 2004.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - November 2005

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Oct 05 to Nov 05
Nov 04 to Nov 05
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
69.8
68.7
61.4
-0.3
-0.3
United States of America
37.4
38.2
35.8
1.0
17.0
United Kingdom
31.2
32.2
21.2
-2.8
-0.1
Thailand
18.8
20.7
20.6
4.5
14.0
China
21.1
22.0
19.3
0.9
23.4
Hong Kong
15.6
15.5
17.8
-2.4
9.8
Singapore
16.3
16.3
16.7
0.9
8.2
Indonesia
16.9
18.1
15.7
-0.3
-41.3
Fiji
16.0
15.7
14.8
-0.3
-0.5
India
8.5
7.9
14.7
0.2
20.3



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - SOUTH AFRICA

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for November 2005 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from South Africa represented 1% (4,400 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. The series has shown fluctuations over the past ten years. The highest point in the trend series was in December 1998 (5,500 movements), while the lowest point was in November 1995 (3,000 movements). The November 2005 trend estimate for arrivals from South Africa was 1% higher than for October 2005 and 8% higher than in November 2004.


The large November 2003 peak in the seasonally adjusted series is associated with the Rugby World Cup held in Australia in late 2003.

SOUTH AFRICA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: SOUTH AFRICA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals from South Africa in November 2005 stated visiting friends and relatives (38%) as the main reason for journey, followed by holiday (29%) and business (19%). The main reasons for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (54%), visiting friends and relatives (19%) and business (13%). The median age of visitors from South Africa was 44 years (41 years for all visitors) while the median intended duration of stay was 20 days (9 days for all visitors).


New South Wales (33%), Western Australia (27%), Queensland (19%) and Victoria (17%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitors from South Africa in November 2005. The main destinations for all short-term visitors to Australia were New South Wales (39%), Queensland (27%), Victoria (19)% and Western Australia (10%).


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates show the number of short-term residents departing Australia for South Africa represented 1% (4,100 movements) of all short-term resident departures in November 2005. While the series has shown fluctuations over the past ten years it has generally followed an upward trend. The highest point in the series was in December 2004 (4,200 movements) while the lowest point was in November 1995 (1,700 movements). The November 2005 trend estimate for departures to South Africa was 2% higher than for October 2005 and 1% lower than for November 2004.

SOUTH AFRICA, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: SOUTH AFRICA, Short-term Resident Departures



In original terms, 42% of Australian residents travelling to South Africa in November 2005 stated visiting friends and relatives as their main reason for journey, followed by holiday (36%) and business (11%). For all residents departing Australia short-term the main reasons for journey were holiday (41%), visiting friends and relatives (26%) and business (19%). The median age of residents departing to South Africa was 40 years (41 years for all residents) while the median intended duration of stay was 27 days for residents departing to South Africa, compared with 14 days for all residents departing short-term.



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 10,800 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during November 2005, an increase of 14.0% when compared with November 2004 (9,470 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (20%), followed by people born in New Zealand (12%) and India (7%).


There were 4,750 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during November 2005, an increase of 3.3% when compared with November 2004 (4,600 movements).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graphs presented below illustrate the long-term increase in the trend series for arrivals from the United Kingdom and the recent decline in arrivals of short-term visitors from New Zealand. The graph for Japan shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003.

United Kingdom
Graph: United Kingdom
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Japan
Graph: Japan




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in that country on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that departures of Australian residents, which had been experiencing strong growth since May 2003, have plateaued over recent months. For Indonesia the graph shows the impact of the 12 October 2002 Bali bombing and the reduced level of travel experienced in the next twelve months. The effect of the 1 October 2005 Bali bombing is also evident and a new break in the trend series has been introduced.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Indonesia
Graph: Indonesia


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