3238.0 - Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2001 to 2026 
Quality Declaration
Quality Declaration ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/04/2014
Page tools:
 Print Page
 Print All
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
INTERSTATE MIGRATION ASSUMPTION
Trends in interstate migration The 2011 Census 'place of usual residence five years ago' question showed that 21,345 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people changed their state or territory of usual residence between 2006 and 2011. Between 2001 and 2006, 18,445 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people changed their state or territory of usual residence. The previous 2001 Census showed that 18,671 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people changed their state or territory of usual residence between 1996 and 2001. This measure was unable to account for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children under five years of age on Census Night, people whose place of usual residence five years ago was overseas, and people whose state or territory of usual residence five years ago was not recorded. In addition, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people overseas on Census Night, were not counted in the Census.
Method used to produce interstate migration assumption State or territory of usual residence on Census Night was cross-tabulated with state or territory of usual residence five years ago to obtain net interstate migration for each state and territory for 2006-2011 (table 2.17). These figures are affected by a number of data quality issues, including Census net undercount and records for which Indigenous status was not stated. To account for these, net interstate migration estimates were adjusted by a proportion calculated by dividing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Census counts, for each state and terrritory. The adjusted net interstate migration estimates were then divided by five to obtain annual movements, which were assumed to remain constant over the projection period (table 2.18). In addition, they were used as constraints on migration assumptions for Indigenous Regions and Remoteness Areas, that is, migration levels were not allowed to exceed the state totals. Age/sex profile of interstate migration The age/sex profile of interstate migration was derived from the 'place of usual residence one year ago' question from the 2011 Census. Arrival and departure rates for the states and territories were calculated by single year of age and sex and adjustments were made where appropriate to ensure the age/sex profiles of projected populations were plausible. All age/sex arrival and departure disaggregations were constrained by the net internal migration assumption at the state/territory level.
Indigenous Regions migration Annual net migration estimates for each IREG were calculated in the same way as for the states and territories, and were assumed to remain constant over the 15-year projection period (table 2.19). Arrival and departure rates were calculated for each IREG by single year of age and sex. These were then constrained to the state or territory net migration levels and were assumed to remain constant over the projection period. Further adjustments were made where appropriate to ensure the age/sex profiles of the projected populations of IREGs were plausible.
Remoteness Areas migration Annual net migration estimates for each Remoteness Area were calculated in the same way as for the states and territories, and were assumed to remain constant over the 15-year projection period (table 2.20). Arrival and departure rates were calculated for each Remoteness Area by single year of age and sex and were assumed to remain constant over the projection period. Further adjustments were made where appropriate to ensure that the age/sex profiles of the projected populations of Remoteness Areas were plausible.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
