3238.0 - Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2001 to 2026 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/04/2014   
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APPENDIX 1 BACKCAST ESTIMATES FOR THE PERIOD 1996 TO 2000


QUALITY CONCERNS

Backcast estimates included in this release are compiled using the 30 June 2011 estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population as the base population and assumptions on mortality and interstate migration (see paragraphs 22-24 of the Explanatory Notes for more information). Reliable life expectancy estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population are not available for the period 1996-2000. Therefore, mortality assumptions for these years were based on the 2010-2012 life expectancy estimates. There will be a greater alignment between this assumption-based mortality and the actual mortality for the years closer to the base year than those for the out years. Moreover, estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population at 30 June 2011 (based on the 2011 Census) are 30% larger than those at 30 June 2006 (based on the 2006 Census). As a consequence, the use of this particularly large base 2011 ERP introduces uncertainty to the historical estimates by inflating them. The uncertainty increases as the time from the base year increases. Due to this reason, the ABS advises that the 1996-2000 estimates included in the spreadsheet attached to this release should be used with caution.

A1.1 ESTIMATES OF ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER AUSTRALIANS, States/territories - At 30 June

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

NSW
153 289
157 044
160 700
164 302
167 572
Vic.
31 917
32 715
33 516
34 372
35 138
Qld
120 460
125 089
129 663
134 030
138 670
SA
24 567
25 447
26 335
27 222
28 182
WA
63 565
65 157
66 746
68 451
70 236
Tas.
16 048
16 709
17 337
17 986
18 620
NT
54 943
55 836
56 747
57 698
58 672
ACT
3 202
3 354
3 582
3 801
4 067
Aust.(a)
468 183
481 552
494 830
508 071
521 369

(a) Includes Other Territories.