Australian Bureau of Statistics
3128.0 - Demography Working Paper 2001/6 - Rebasing Australia's Demographic Estimates Using The 2001 Census Of Population And Housing, 2001
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/11/2001
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Comments on this paper would be appreciated by early January 2002 sent to Matt Berger at email@example.com
8. National and State components of population change (births, deaths, international migration and interstate migration) are all subject to revision using the latest available data. For 1991-1996, the major revision was in interstate migration, with much smaller changes to births and deaths and almost nil for international migration. Information collected in the Census of Population and Housing allows an assessment of how much of the intercensal error was due to inaccuracies in estimates of interstate migration, using data from the two census questions on usual residence 1 year ago and 5 years ago.
9. After the intercensal error is adjusted for components of population change data revisions, the remaining (unattributable) portion is known as the intercensal discrepancy. Thus the intercensal discrepancy acts as a balancing item, that when combined with births, deaths and migration equals the change in the intercensal population estimates.
METHODS USED IN REBASING - IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE 2001 CYCLE
10. The methods used to rebase the population are described in the Demographic Estimates and Projections: Concepts, Sources and Methods, on the ABS web site. Separate outlines are given of the process for National and State population estimates and Statistical Local Area estimates. For the 2001 cycle, a change is planned that will improve the small area estimates of the Indigenous population in the census year. The proposed improvement will incorporate the undercount of the Indigenous population during estimation of the total population, rather than as a later process. This process will take advantage of new developments in sample survey estimation, and will further allow production of consistent population estimates at the SLA level. Second, the 1996 cycle used birth and death registration data on a period of occurrence basis for 1991-1996 (rather than the period of registration basis used prior to 1991). The 2001 cycle will still use period of occurrence data but will attempt to better account for the lag leading up to registration of births.
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION DATA
11. In August 2000 the Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs (DIMA) announced the transition of their passenger card processing system to an imaging and scanning system. Movement to this new system has taken longer than originally planned. Of particular concern is that the passenger card processing will not be completed in time for incorporation of data into the rebasing process. This would impact upon the ability to incorporate residents temporarily overseas on census night into ERP. For preliminary estimation of SLA ERP, a modelling procedure will be needed to place residents temporarily overseas back in the SLAs of their usual residence. Production of final SLA level ERP will be delayed until detailed address information is available for residents temporarily overseas.
PLANS FOR OUTPUT
12. The following demographic estimates are proposed to be based on the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and made available during 2002 and 2003 following the release of relevant census data. All population estimates will be available by age and sex in electronic form. Unless otherwise specified, standard output for age is in 5 year age groups up to 85 and over. For June 2001 population estimates will also be available on for the first time at the SLA level by single year of age up to 100 and over. Small cells will be subject to randomisation to help ensure confidentiality of data provided to the ABS. A description of the method used in the preliminary rebasing of the June 2001 national and State population estimates (including demographic adjustments applied in the assessment of the 2001 Census net undercount) is due to be released in a Demography working paper in July 2002. A description of final rebasing will be provided in an update of Demographic Estimates and Projections: Concepts, Sources and Methods, due for release by June 2003.
13. Population estimates that will be produced are as follows:
Detailed plans for release of data are as follows.
POPULATION - TOTAL
National and State
14. Preliminary estimates for June 2001 based on the 2001 Census are proposed to be released in June 2002 in Australian Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2001 (3101.0). September and December 2001 estimates based on the 2001 Census will also be released at the same time. Given that they will be revised 6 months later, preliminary estimates from September 1996 to March 2001 based on the 2001 Census are proposed not to be published but made available on request. Two June 2001 population estimates at the State level would appear - one based on the 1996 Census and the other based on the 2001 Census.
15. Depending on availability of data from DIMA, final estimates from September 1996 to June 2001 are proposed to be released in December 2002 in Australian Demographic Statistics, June Quarter 2002 (3101.0). Components of population growth from July 1996 to June 2001 would be finalised. Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories, June 2002 (3201.0) is proposed to contain final State level June population estimates by single year of age to 85 and over for the years 1997 to 2001 inclusive. The spreadsheets in AusStats associated with Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories (3201.0) will contain these estimates by single year of age to 100 years and over.
16. While standard output is at the Statistical Local Area level on ASGC 2001, Collection District level estimates for June 2001 will also be available on request (Collection District level estimates for June 1996 on ASGC 1996 are available).
17. Preliminary estimates at June 2001, along with June 1991 and June 1996 estimates, on ASGC 2001 are proposed to be released in July 2002 in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 1991-2001 (3218.0).
18. Data cubes in AusStats proposed to be released at the same time on ASGC 2001 are as follows:
19. Final total population estimates at June 1997 to June 2001 on ASGC 2001 are proposed to be released in February 2003 as data cubes in AusStats as follows:
20. Final total population estimates at June 2001, but on ASGC 2002, are proposed to be released in February 2003 in Regional Population Growth, Australia 2001-02 (3218.0) and the associated data cube in AusStats.
21. Final total population estimates at June 1991 and June 1996 to June 2001 on ASGC 2001 are proposed to be released in May 2003 in Population Growth and Distribution, Australia 1996-2001 (2035.0).
POPULATION - INDIGENOUS
22. Preliminary estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) population at June 2001 are proposed to be released as follows:
23. Depending on availability of data from DIMA, final estimates of the Indigenous population 1991- 2001 are proposed to be released as follows:
Torres Strait Islander population
24. Separate estimates of the Torres Strait Islander population are proposed to be produced at the SLA level by age and sex during the production of Indigenous population estimates. Appropriate State, capital city/balance of State, major population centre, remoteness area and ATSIC region level estimates will be published in Experimental Estimates and Projections of Indigenous Australians, 1991-2016 (3238.0) along with Aboriginal and non-Indigenous populations - released August 2003.
POPULATION - COUNTRY OF BIRTH
25. Final estimates at June 1997 to June 2001, along with June 1996, for Australia, are proposed to be released in Migration, Australia 2001-02 (3412.0) due for release in February 2003. Capital city and balances of State estimates at June 2001 are also proposed to be published.
POPULATION - REGISTERED MARITAL STATUS
26. Final estimates at June 1997 to June 2001, along with June 1996, for Australia are proposed to be released in Marriages and Divorces, Australia 2002 (3310.0) due for release in August 2003. State level final estimates are also proposed to be published.
HOUSEHOLD AND FAMILY
27. Final estimates of households at the Part of State level for June 1997 to June 2001 are proposed to be released in June 2003 in Australian Demographic Statistics, September Quarter 2002 (3101.0). Final estimates of households and families at June 2001 for capital cities/ balances of States are proposed to be included as a special article in this publication.
28. Final estimates of households and families at June 2001 at the Statistical Local Area level on ASGC 2001 are proposed to be released as an AusStats data cube Household and Family Estimates, Australia, June 2001 (3236.0.55.001) released at the same time.
Australian Bureau of Statistics
12 November 2001
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