ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,936m in October 2012, a rise of $241m (14%) on the deficit in September 2012.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,088m in October 2012, a rise of $668m (47%) on the deficit in September 2012.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September and October 2012, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $346m (1%) to $24,228m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $99m to $24,405m. Rural goods rose $155m (5%) and non–monetary gold rose $102m (7%). Non–rural goods fell $158m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (14%). Services credits rose $2m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $1m to $2,948m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $155m (5%) to $3,008m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $79m (10%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $64m (11%).

NON–RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non–rural goods fell $390m (2%) to $15,402m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non–rural goods fell $158m (1%) to $15,410m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $219m (6%)
• other mineral fuels, down $140m (6%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $148m (3%)
• metals (excl. non–monetary gold), up $124m (16%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $14m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (14%) to $12m.

NON–MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non–monetary gold rose $27m (2%) to $1,514m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non–monetary gold rose $102m (7%) to $1,635m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $16m to $4,349m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $2m to $4,339m.

The only component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was other services, up $20m (2%).

Partly offsetting this rise was travel, down $16m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $18m (1%) to $2,859m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September and October 2012, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $105m to $26,164m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $768m (3%) to $26,493m. Capital goods rose $674m (13%), consumption goods rose $152m (3%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $86m (1%). Non–monetary gold fell $138m (20%). Services debits fell $6m.


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $19m to $5,603m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $152m (3%) to $5,629m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $99m (6%)
• household electrical items, up $47m (14%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $51m (1%) to $5,657m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $674m (13%) to $5,984m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s., up $491m (43%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $130m (35%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $48m (1%) to $9,022m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $86m (1%) to $9,028m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $158m (5%).

Partly offsetting this rise was the other parts for capital goods component, down $74m (6%).

NON–MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non–monetary gold rose $17m (3%) to $572m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non–monetary gold fell $138m (20%) to $545m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits fell $3m to $5,310m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $6m to $5,307m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other services, down $81m (5%)
• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $49m (53%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• travel, up $88m (4%)
• transport, up $36m (3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $96m (4%) to $2,817m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis – Original terms
		Change in
		May 2012	Jun 2012	Jul 2012	Aug 2012	Sep 2012	Oct 2012
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore(a)
Lump
	Quantity	–17	–2	5	6	–5	11
	Unit value	4	–4	–8	–6	–10	np
Fines
	Quantity	8	–3	1	5	–5	7
	Unit value	2	–3	–7	–10	–12	np
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	8	9	–21	14	14	–12
	Unit value	–	–2	–2	–4	–1	–16
Semi–soft
	Quantity	–3	–7	5	–11	9	–4
	Unit value	–1	–5	–4	–2	–3	–8
Thermal
	Quantity	–7	9	13	–14	13	10
	Unit value	2	–3	–5	–3	–3	1
– nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series. Unit values for the latest month have been suppressed in this table because of the size of the iron ore value adjustment.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between September and October 2012 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Quantities of iron ore lump exported rose 11% with quantities to China up 16% and quantities to Republic of Korea up 26%.

Quantities of iron ore fines exported rose 7% with quantities to China up 10%.

Hard coking coal fell $397m (26%) with quantities down 12% and unit values down 16%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $242m (60%), with quantities down 55% and unit values down 10%
• India fell $110m (29%), with quantities down 13% and unit values down 18%.

Semi–soft coal fell $69m (11%) with quantities down 4% and unit values down 8%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $54m (22%), with quantities down 19% and unit values down 4%
• Taiwan fell $32m (74%), with quantities down 71% and unit values down 11%.

Thermal coal rose $158m (11%) with quantities up 10% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• Mexico rose $81m (262%), with quantities up 204% and unit values up 19%
• China rose $70m (35%), with quantities up 42% and unit values down 5%.

COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the financial year 2011–12. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two–way trade i.e. combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows separately total exports and total imports, for the ten countries in the first chart.

Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. Merchanting credits and Goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component, will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broad analysis.

Imports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2011–12, these restrictions represented 3% of the total imports value, however this figure does vary across individual countries. In table 14 of this publication, the 'no country details' data is included in 'other countries'.