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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jan 2014 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/03/2014   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2014 (558,700 movements) increased 0.8% when compared with December 2013 (554,400 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 8.7% higher than in January 2013.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia(a)

Graph: Visitor arrivals, Short-term, last 10 years

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2014. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for January 2013 and January 2014 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Malaysia (40.5%) followed by Hong Kong (25.9%). The only percentage decrease was recorded for Japan (4.5%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - January 2014

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec13 to Jan 14(b)
Jan 13 to Jan 14(b)
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

China
61.5
68.8
95.4
0.7
9.6
New Zealand
102.9
101.0
78.7
0.7
2.2
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
53.7
54.1
64.7
0.1
6.4
United States of America
44.7
43.4
41.6
0.8
7.8
Korea, South
17.0
17.2
22.1
0.3
3.2
Japan
26.5
25.5
19.3
-0.8
-4.5
Singapore
31.7
32.8
18.4
2.1
25.6
Hong Kong
17.5
17.1
16.1
1.7
25.9
Malaysia
28.5
29.0
15.6
2.6
40.5
Germany
15.1
14.7
15.6
1.7
9.2

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) Data revised from July 2004 to December 2013. For information see Explanatory Notes 12 & 13.
(c) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The February 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.4% higher than January 2014.
      2 The February 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.4% lower than January 2014.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia(a)
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia, last 13 months


The figure of 2.4% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during January 2014 (752,900 movements) increased 0.5% when compared with December 2013 (749,100 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 8.1% higher than in January 2013.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia(a)
Graph: Visitor arrivals, Short-term, last 10 years


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in January 2014. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for January 2013 and January 2014 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Malaysia (30.9%), followed by Singapore (22.5%). The only percentage decrease was recorded for Thailand (3.0%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - January 2014

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 13 to Jan 14(b)
Jan 13 to Jan 14(b)
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
100.6
101.1
105.6
0.7
6.2
Indonesia
84.6
86.8
80.9
1.1
12.3
USA
78.5
76.7
58.2
-0.4
5.8
Thailand
50.9
47.9
45.0
-0.5
-3.0
Malaysia
27.5
28.4
33.1
3.8
30.9
Singapore
32.2
33.9
32.3
1.4
22.5
China
35.2
35.5
32.3
1.1
8.0
Japan
18.5
18.8
30.6
2.9
12.6
India
22.8
23.7
29.3
2.1
21.3
Vietnam
19.6
20.3
26.8
0.9
10.5

(b) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(a) Data revised from July 2004 to December 2013. For information see Explanatory Notes 12 & 13.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The February 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than January 2014.
      2 The February 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than January 2014.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia(a)

Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia, last 13 months
The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the year 2011, there were over 14 million multiple movements accounting for 46% of all movements (see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 11,610 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during January 2014, a decrease of 6.3% compared with January 2013 (12,390 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (19.6%), followed by people born in China (12.7%), India (12.6%) and the United Kingdom (8.4%).

There were 11,060 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during January 2014, which decreased 6.6% when compared with January 2013 (11,840 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.


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