1 CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
REBUILD OF THE OVERSEAS ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES SYSTEM
The ABS is currently undertaking a rebuild of the Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) system. The primary aim of this project is to improve the quality of OAD data, given its importance as input to a broad range of statistical collections.
Why rebuild the OAD system?
OAD data is a key economic indicator, providing important information on cross-border movements. The data feed into a number of important collections at the ABS including International Trade; National Income & Consumption; International Accounts and the Tourism Satellite Account. It is also a major input for estimating Net Overseas Migration (NOM) and therefore the Estimated Resident Population (ERP).
The data is also used extensively by other government departments, such as the Department of Immigration and Citizenship, and by business, particularly within the tourism industry.
The OAD system has not been reviewed in over 10 years and some assumptions and methodologies were in need of updating. The focus of the rebuild has been on improving the quality of OAD data through an enhanced processing methodology, with a particular emphasis on introducing more robust imputations for missing traveller data.
What data will change?
Nearly all data will change to some degree. The main variables to change due to improved imputations include:
- Country of Birth - particularly for NZ citizens,
- Country of Embarkation/Disembarkation,
- Country of Stay/Residence,
- Reason for Journey,
- State of Stay/Residence, and
- Duration of Stay - the main categories of travel that will change are:
- Long-Term Visitor Arrivals (LTVA) - average increase 24%;
- Long-Term Resident Departures (LTRD) - average increase 11%;
- Short-Term Visitor Arrivals (STVA) - average decrease 1.3%; and
- Short-Term Resident Departures (STRD) - average decrease 0.1%.
Will it be a break in series?
Yes it will be a break in series. However, it is planned a time series based on the improved methodology will be made available, most likely back to July 2004.
When will the changes be published?
The improved OAD data will be made available from the reference month of January 2014 in
Overseas Arrivals and Departures - Australia, January 2014 (cat. no. 3401.0) scheduled for release on 11 March 2014.
Will this affect other ABS data?
Yes. All data that uses OAD data as a major input to their collection will be affected to some degree. Each area of the ABS, International Trade; National Income & Consumption; International Accounts and the Tourism Satellite Account will provide additional information prior to March 2014.
Will this affect the NOM time series?
Yes. The data from the rebuilt OAD system has already been used to produce final NOM from September quarter 2006 onwards which has already been released in
Australian Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2012 (cat. no 3101.0). It made minimal change to the final NOM estimate, with analysis of the change included on page 22 of the same publication.
It will also affect preliminary NOM. The testing undertaken to date, shows an improvement in accuracy for estimating preliminary NOM. Preliminary NOM data based on the improved OAD data will become available from June Quarter 2013, in
Australian Demographic Statistics, June Quarter 2013 (cat. no 3101.0) scheduled for release on 17 December 2013.
An
Information Paper: Further Improvements to Net Overseas Migration Estimation, Dec 2013 (cat. no. 3412.0.55.002) is also scheduled for release on 17 December 2013.
Where do I look for more information?
Information about the upcoming changes will be put in the Notes Section of each
Overseas Arrivals and Departures (cat. no. 3401.0) publication until the new series are released on 11 March 2014.
Information on the improved methodology, particularly on the enhanced imputations, will be made available with the release of
Overseas Arrivals and Departures - Australia, January 2014 (cat. no. 3401.0) on 11 March 2014.
2 For data quality issues see the Appendix which is found on the Explanatory Notes tab of
Overseas Arrivals and Departures (cat. no. 3401.0)
3 Short term movements are based on a sample and are subject to sampling error. See paragraphs 10 and 11 of the Explanatory Notes and the Standard Errors section from the Explanatory Notes tab of
Overseas Arrivals and Departures (cat. no. 3401.0) for more detail.
4 Occasionally situations occur that necessitate breaks being applied to the trend series. These breaks are necessary because of a change in the underlying level of the series. While the breaks apply to an individual country (e.g. Indonesia) a consequence is that breaks are also applied to the regional total series (e.g. Total South-East Asia) and the total series. Breaks currently included in the trend series are as follows:
- December 2003; STRD - Indonesia, Total South-East Asia and Total
- Effect on trend and reason - Increase in STRD movements; Return to levels experienced prior to the Bali Bombing of 12 October 2002
- October 2005; STRD - Indonesia, Total South-East Asia and Total
- Effect on trend and reason - Decrease in STRD movements; Bali Bombing of 1 October 2005
- December 2006; STRD - Indonesia, Total South-East Asia and Total
- Effect on trend and reason - Increase in STRD movements; Return to levels closer to, but still lower than, those experienced prior to the Bali Bombing of 1 October 2005.
- April 2009; STRD - All countries, Total region and Total in the following regions: Oceania and Antarctica, North-West Europe, South-East Asia, North-East Asia, Southern and Central Asia, Americas and Sub-Saharan Africa
- Effect on trend and reason - Increase in STRD movements; Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and initiatives introduced to combat the GFC (e.g. Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and February 2009), cut-price air fares and travel packages, and the high Australian dollar).
- Comments - Breaks in series were clearly observed for Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Further smaller breaks were applied to the remaining specified country series.
- July 2009; STRD - Fiji, Total Oceania and Antarctica
- Effect on trend and reason - Increase in STRD movements; Increased flights, cut-price fares and the high Australian dollar.
- Comments - The break in series for Fiji will be illustrated in specific commentary, tables and graphs on Fiji and Total Oceania and Antarctica. However, although Fiji is included in the total series its impact is minimal and not observable amongst other volatility during this time. Therefore, it has not been illustrated in commentary, tables and graphs at this level.
- February 2011; STRD - Egypt, Total North Africa and the Middle East
- Effect on trend and reason - Decrease in STRD movements; Ongoing political instability in Egypt.
- Comments - The break in series for Egypt will be illustrated in specific commentary, tables and graphs on Egypt and Total North Africa and the Middle East. However, although Egypt is included in the total series its impact is minimal and not observable amongst other volatility during this time. Therefore, it has not been illustrated in commentary, tables and graphs at this level.
- March 2011; STRD - Japan, Total North East Asia
- Effect on trend and reason - Decrease in STRD movements; Major earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011 in Japan and subsequent nuclear radiation exposure incidents.
- Comments - The break in series for Japan will be illustrated in specific commentary, tables and graphs on Japan and Total North East Asia. However, although Japan is included in the total series its impact is minimal and not observable amongst other volatility during this time. Therefore, it has not been illustrated in commentary, tables and graphs at this level.
5 For additional notes on the data please see the Notes section of the Key Figures of
Overseas Arrivals and Departures (cat. no. 3401.0).
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