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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Nov 2012 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/01/2013   
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APPENDIX 3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.

The following graphs are provided to illustrate variations in the seasonally adjusted and trend series for selected countries. These graphs cover the ten year period December 2001 to December 2011.


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for China shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003. The graph for France shows steady growth from 2004 to 2009 with monthly fluctuations. However, in April 2010, the seasonally adjusted series falls dramatically at the time of the volcanic eruptions in Iceland, which closed major airports in Europe for one week. The graph for New Zealand shows the large decrease in the seasonally adjusted series for short-term visitor arrivals in September 2011, due to New Zealanders staying home for the Rugby World Cup being held in New Zealand.

CHINA(a), Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: CHINA(a), Short-term Visitor Arrivals


FRANCE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: FRANCE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals


NEW ZEALAND, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: NEW ZEALAND, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

Analysis of short-term resident departures for Egypt, as seen below, shows the effect of political unrest throughout 2011. For Indonesia, the graph shows the introduction of breaks in series due to the reduced level of travel experienced after the Bali bombings of 12 October 2002 and 1 October 2005. Further breaks were inserted in December 2003 and December 2006 as movements returned to levels closer to those recorded prior to the bombings. The graph for Spain shows, in the seasonally adjusted series, the effect of Spain hosting World Youth Day in August 2011.

With the reintroduction of the trend series for short-term resident departures (see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 25), breaks in series for the following graphs have been inserted from April 2009. These breaks are associated with the increase in movements that coincided with the introduction of initiatives to combat the Global Financial Crisis. For example, the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and February 2009, and cut-price air fares and travel packages. Additionally, travel from Australia has continued to benefit from the high Australian dollar.

EGYPT, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: EGYPT, Short-term Resident Departures


INDONESIA, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: INDONESIA, Short-term Resident Departures


SPAIN, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: SPAIN, Short-term Resident Departures



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