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COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE
The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).
The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 June 2011 was higher for NOM (53%) than for natural increase (47%).
Natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2011 was 150,500 persons, an increase of 0.5%, or 800 persons, when compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2010 (149,700 persons). This increase was due to an increase in the number of births, largely offset by an increase in the number of deaths.
The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 30 June 2011 (296,800 births) was 1.9%, or 5,600 births, higher than the figure for the year ended 30 June 2010 (291,200 births).
The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 30 June 2011 (146,300 deaths) was 3.4%, or 4,800 deaths, higher than the figure for the year ended 30 June 2010 (141,500 deaths).
Net Overseas Migration
For the year ended 30 June 2011, Australia's preliminary NOM estimate was 170,300 persons. This was 9.6% (28,000 persons) lower than the NOM estimated for the year ended 30 June 2010 (198,300 persons).
The recent decline in NOM is due to both a decrease in NOM arrivals and an increase in NOM departures for the year ended 30 June 2011 compared with the previous year.
NOM arrivals decreased by 5% (22,900 persons) between the years ended 30 June 2010 (446,800 persons) and 30 June 2011 (423,900 persons). This reflects a continuing decline in NOM arrivals since the peak of 536,000 persons recorded for the year ended 31 December 2008.
NOM departures increased by 2% (5,200 persons) between the years ended 30 June 2010 (248,400 persons) and 30 June 2011 (253,600 persons).
The preliminary NOM estimate for the June quarter 2011 (35,500 persons) was 14% (3,100 persons) higher than the estimate for the June quarter 2010 (32,300 persons).
STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH
The estimated resident population for each state and territory at 30 June 2011 was as follows:
All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2011. Western Australia continued to record the fastest growth rate of all states and territories with 2.4%. The Northern Territory recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.4%.
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE
At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.
Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2011, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.
For the year ended 30 June 2011, natural increase was the major component of population change in the Northern Territory, Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and Queensland and NOM was the major component of population change in Western Australia, followed by New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Net interstate migration losses were recorded in New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.
Estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).
The total number of births registered for the year ended 30 June 2011 increased in all states and territories, except for South Australia, when compared with the previous year. South Australia recorded a decrease of 1.0% (210 births) since the year ended 30 June 2010. The largest percentage increase of registered births was recorded in Tasmania at 6.5% (400 births). For more information, see table 13.
The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 30 June 2011 increased for all states and territories, except for Western Australia, when compared with the previous year. Western Australia recorded a decrease in deaths for year ended 30 June 2011 with a decrease of 1.0% (130 deaths). The largest percentage increase was recorded by the Northern Territory at 8.8% (82 deaths). For more information, see table 14.
Net Overseas Migration
All states and territories recorded positive net overseas migration (NOM) for the year ended 30 June 2011. However, when compared to the previous year, all states and territories, except for Western Australia, recorded a decrease in NOM. Proportionally, South Australia recorded the largest decrease with NOM 43% (6,600 persons) down on the previous year. Western Australia recorded an increase of 19% (4,900 persons). For more information, see table 16.
When compared to the year ended 30 June 2010, all states and territories, except for Western Australia, recorded decreases in NOM arrivals. The largest percentage decrease was recorded by South Australia at 24% (6,100 persons). Western Australia recorded an increase of 6% (3,200 persons). For more information, see table 16.
Conversely, some states and territories recorded increases in NOM departures. The largest percentage increase was recorded by Victoria at 6% (3,600 persons). The largest percentage decrease was recorded by Western Australia at 5% (1,600 persons). For more information, see table 16.
Net Interstate Migration
Queensland recorded the highest gains from net interstate migration (NIM) for the year ended 30 June 2011 (7,200 persons). Other states and territories which recorded net gains were Western Australia (6,200 persons), Victoria (3,800 persons) and the Australian Capital Territory (1,400 persons). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (13,200 persons), South Australia (2,600 persons), the Northern Territory (2,500 persons) and Tasmania (50 persons). For more information, see table 19.
INTERSTATE MIGRATION, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and territories - Year ended 30 June 2011
For the 12 months ended 30 June 2011, Australia's population growth rate (1.4%) was above that of the world (1.1%). Australia is growing at a faster rate than many countries including New Zealand and Viet Nam (both 1.1%), Indonesia, Hong Kong and Canada (all 1.0%), United States of America (0.9%), Sweden and South Africa (both 0.7%), the United Kingdom (0.6%), France and China (both 0.5%), Italy and Republic of Korea (both 0.4%) and Greece (0.3%). India's population growth was the same as Australia's (1.4%). Further, Japan experienced neutral growth (0.0%). Four countries that experienced faster growth than Australia were Malaysia (1.6%), the Philippines (1.7%), Singapore (2.0%) and Papua New Guinea (2.3%). According to figures from the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Australia's population ranked 52nd in 2011 (which is equal to its rank in 2010) and is projected to rank 59th by 2050. By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.69 billion people compared with 1.30 billion in China.
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