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3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2031 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/06/2010   
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HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS

The number of households in Australia is projected to increase from 7.8 million in 2006 to between 11.4 and 11.8 million (Series I and Series III respectively) in 2031. This is an increase of between 3.7 and 4.0 million households, or 47% to 52%. Over the same period, Australia's population is projected to increase by 39%, from 20.7 million people to 28.8 million people.

3.1 Projected number of households - Australia
Graph: 3.1 Projected number of households—Australia

3.2 Projected number of households - Australia

Households
Series I
Series II
Series III
As at 30 June
'000
'000
'000

2006
7 780.2
7 780.2
7 780.2
2011
8 498.7
8 555.5
8 555.5
2016
9 252.4
9 342.0
9 369.9
2021
10 008.7
10 119.9
10 191.6
2026
10 741.9
10 863.2
10 999.4
2031
11 441.6
11 576.5
11 789.0




Average household size

The average household size in Australia is projected to decrease from 2.6 people per household in 2006 to between 2.4 and 2.5 people per household in 2031.


Household type

Each of the three household types - family, group, and lone person - are projected to increase in number between 2006 and 2031.

3.3 Projected number of households, Household type - Series II
Graph: 3.3 Projected number of households, Household type—Series II


Family households are projected to show the greatest numeric increase of all household types over the projection period, increasing from 5.6 million in 2006 to between 7.9 million (Series III) and 8.0 million (Series I and II) households in 2031, increases of between 2.3 to 2.4 million. Family households are projected to remain the most common household type in Australia.

Although family households show the greatest numeric increase, lone person households are projected to experience the greatest percentage increase over the 25 years. This is related to the ageing of Australia's population and the fact that older women, in particular, are more likely to live alone than other people. In Series I, in which living arrangement patterns remain the same throughout the projection period and therefore any changes in the number of households and families are due solely to changes in the size and age/sex structure of the projected population, the number of lone person households is projected to increase by 63%. This results in an increase of 1.2 million households, from 1.9 million lone person households in 2006 to 3.0 million in 2031, reflecting the ageing of the population as baby boomers move into the older age groups. In Series II and III, where changes in the likelihood of being in particular living arrangements are incorporated into the projections, lone person households are projected to increase by 73% and 91% respectively, or 1.4 and 1.7 million households. This results in 3.2 million (Series II) and 3.6 million (Series III) lone person households by 2031.

The number of group households in Australia is projected to increase from 291,400 in 2006 to between 350,800 and 387,500 in 2031. This is an increase of between 59,400 and 96,100 households, or 20% to 33%, over the projection period. As a proportion, group households made up only 4% of all households in Australia in 2006 and are projected to decrease to 3% between 2006 and 2031.

3.4 Projected number of households, Household type - Australia

As at 30 June
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Household type
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

SERIES I

Family households
5 628.7
6 114.6
6 621.6
7 121.3
7 590.3
8 024.4
Group households
291.4
316.8
338.6
354.9
369.5
387.5
Lone person households
1 860.0
2 067.2
2 292.2
2 532.6
2 782.1
3 029.6
Total
7 780.2
8 498.7
9 252.4
10 008.7
10 741.9
11 441.6

SERIES II

Family households
5 628.7
6 078.2
6 567.2
7 062.2
7 538.1
7 978.5
Group households
291.4
313.6
332.8
347.3
361.2
378.7
Lone person households
1 860.0
2 163.7
2 441.9
2 710.4
2 963.9
3 219.3
Total
7 780.2
8 555.5
9 342.0
10 119.9
10 863.2
11 576.5

SERIES III

Family households
5 628.7
6 078.2
6 549.1
7 018.3
7 464.9
7 880.5
Group households
291.4
313.6
330.2
339.1
344.0
350.8
Lone person households
1 860.0
2 163.7
2 490.6
2 834.2
3 190.5
3 557.7
Total
7 780.2
8 555.5
9 369.9
10 191.6
10 999.4
11 789.0




Multiple family households

Family households can contain more than one family. According to the 2006 Census, 1.8% of all family households in Australia were multiple family households. Assuming this proportion remains constant between 2006 and 2031, the number of multiple family households would increase by between 41,600 and 44,300 households, from 104,000 in 2006 to between 145,600 (Series III) and 148,200 (Series I) households in 2031.

3.5 Projected number of family households

As at 30 June
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Household type
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

Series I

Single family households
5 524.7
6 001.7
6 499.3
6 989.7
7 450.1
7 876.2
Multiple family households
104.0
112.9
122.3
131.5
140.2
148.2
Total
5 628.7
6 114.6
6 621.6
7 121.3
7 590.3
8 024.4

Series II

Single family households
5 524.7
5 965.9
6 445.9
6 931.7
7 398.9
7 831.1
Multiple family households
104.0
112.3
121.3
130.4
139.2
147.4
Total
5 628.7
6 078.2
6 567.2
7 062.2
7 538.1
7 978.5

Series III

Single family households
5 524.7
5 965.9
6 428.1
6 888.6
7 327.0
7 734.9
Multiple family households
104.0
112.3
121.0
129.6
137.9
145.6
Total
5 628.7
6 078.2
6 549.1
7 018.3
7 464.9
7 880.5




International comparison

The projected average annual growth rate in the number of households in Australia for the period 2006 to 2016 (1.7%) is higher than the projected rates for New Zealand (1.3%), England (1.1%), Scotland (0.9%) and Japan (0.2%). Average household size is projected to decline for all of the selected countries between 2006 and 2016. Australia's average household size (2.5 people per household) in 2016 is projected to be the same as Japan and New Zealand (both 2.5), and larger than England (2.2) and Scotland (2.1).

3.6 Projected growth, households, Selected countries

Average household size

Projected average annual growth rate, 2006-2016
2006
2016
Country
%
persons
persons

Australia(a)
1.7
2.6
2.5
England(b)
1.1
2.3
2.2
Scotland(c)
0.9
2.2
2.1
New Zealand(d)
1.3
2.6
2.5
Japan(e)
0.2
(f)2.6
(g)2.5

(a) Series II.
(b) 2006-based projections; Department for Communities and Local Government (United Kingdom).
(c) 2006-based projections; General Register Office for Scotland.
(d) Medium series, 2006-based projections; Statistics New Zealand.
(e) 1995-based projections; National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (Japan).
(f) Average household size in 2005.
(g) Average household size in 2015.






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