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3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2031 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/06/2010   
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TASMANIA

Slowest household growth

Tasmania's population is projected to have the least growth (15%) of all the states and territories over the projection period. As a result, growth in the numbers of households and families in Tasmania is the lowest of the states and territories. The number of households in Tasmania is projected to increase by between 21% and 25%; considerably lower than that projected for Australia (of between 47% and 52%). This represents an increase of between 41,800 and 48,900 households, from 196,100 in 2006 to between 237,900 and 244,900 in 2031.

Of the three household types, lone person households are projected to experience the fastest growth, increasing by between 41% and 63%, from 52,000 in 2006 to between 73,200 and 85,000 in 2031. This growth is lower than that projected for Australia overall (of between 63% and 91%). The growth in lone person households results in an extra 21,100 (Series I) to 33,000 (Series III) households over the projection period, which is more than the increase in family households, which are projected to increase by 15,100 (Series I) to 20,300 (Series III) households.

4.22 Projected number of households, Household type - Tasmania

As at 30 June
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Household type
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

SERIES I

Family households
138.1
143.9
149.2
153.5
156.4
158.4
Group households
5.9
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.3
Lone person households
52.0
56.2
60.6
65.0
69.4
73.2
Total
196.1
206.3
216.0
224.8
232.0
237.9

SERIES II

Family households
138.1
142.8
147.4
151.5
154.6
156.7
Group households
5.9
6.3
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.6
Lone person households
52.0
58.9
64.5
69.4
73.6
77.4
Total
196.1
208.0
218.4
227.5
234.7
240.7

SERIES III

Family households
138.1
142.8
146.8
150.0
152.1
153.2
Group households
5.9
6.3
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.7
Lone person households
52.0
58.9
65.8
72.5
79.0
85.0
Total
196.1
208.0
219.2
229.2
237.7
244.9




Average household size

Tasmania's average household size of 2.5 persons per household in 2006 was the equal smallest of the states and territories (equal to South Australia). In Series I and II, Tasmania's average household size is projected to decline to 2.3 people per household by 2031 (the same as South Australia). In Series III, the average household size is projected to decline to 2.2 people per household, the smallest average household size of all states and territories in 2031. Nationally, average household size is projected to be between 2.4 and 2.5 people per household in 2031.


Tasmanian families

There were 139,700 families in Tasmania in 2006, accounting for 2% of all Australian families. This is projected to increase to between 155,000 and 160,200, a growth of 11% to 15%, in contrast to Australia's projected increase in the number of families of between 28% and 33%.

The number of couple families with children is projected to remain steady or to decrease, from 57,300 in 2006 to between 57,500 and 38,000 in 2031. Conversely, the number of couple families without children is projected to increase to between 74,400 and 81,800 in 2031 (from 56,700 in 2006). As a result, couple families without children are projected to outnumber couple families with children from 2007 (for all three series) onwards, while in Australia this is projected to occur in 2013 (in Series III) or 2014 (in Series II).

One-parent families are projected to increase from 23,700 in 2006 to between 26,000 and 33,000 in 2031, an increase of between 9% and 39%. In Series III, which assumes the rate of change in living arrangements derived from the last four Censuses continues for the entire projection period, by 2031 around one-fifth (21%) of families in Tasmania are projected to be one-parent families.

4.23 Projected families, Family type - Tasmania - Series II
Graph: 4.23 Projected families, Family type - Tasmania - Series II

4.24 Projected number of families, Family type - Tasmania

As at 30 June
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Family type
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

SERIES I

Couple families with children
57.3
57.3
57.2
57.3
57.5
57.5
Couple families without children
56.7
62.1
67.0
70.8
73.1
74.4
One-parent families
23.7
24.1
24.5
24.9
25.4
26.0
Male parent
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
Female parent
19.5
19.8
20.1
20.5
20.9
21.3
Other families
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.3
Total
139.7
145.6
150.9
155.2
158.2
160.2

SERIES II

Couple families with children
57.3
53.1
50.9
50.0
50.2
50.3
Couple families without children
56.7
63.7
69.5
73.9
76.4
77.7
One-parent families
23.7
25.7
26.7
27.4
27.9
28.4
Male parent
4.2
4.6
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.2
Female parent
19.5
21.1
21.9
22.5
22.9
23.3
Other families
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Total
139.7
144.4
149.1
153.3
156.4
158.5

SERIES III

Couple families with children
57.3
53.1
48.8
44.9
41.4
38.0
Couple families without children
56.7
63.7
70.2
75.6
79.3
81.8
One-parent families
23.7
25.7
27.4
29.2
31.1
33.0
Male parent
4.2
4.6
4.9
5.3
5.6
6.0
Female parent
19.5
21.1
22.5
24.0
25.5
27.1
Other families
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
Total
139.7
144.4
148.5
151.7
153.8
155.0




Living arrangements in Tasmania

4.25 Projected number of persons, Living arrangement - Tasmania

As at 30 June
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Living arrangement
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

SERIES I

Family households
Couple families with children
Husband, wife or partner
114.6
114.5
114.5
114.7
114.9
115.1
Child
115.3
116.4
117.0
117.8
118.4
117.9
Other related individual
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.7
Couple families without children
Husband, wife or partner
113.4
124.2
134.0
141.5
146.2
148.7
Other related individual
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.6
One-parent families
Male parent
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
Female parent
19.5
19.8
20.1
20.5
20.9
21.3
Child
37.6
37.8
37.9
38.2
38.4
38.3
Other related individual
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
Other families
Related person living in an other family
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.9
Total(a)
415.9
429.0
440.1
449.6
456.2
459.4
Group households
Group household member
13.6
14.2
14.4
14.4
14.4
14.6
Lone person households
Male lone person
23.3
24.7
26.0
27.3
28.3
29.2
Female lone person
28.8
31.6
34.6
37.8
41.1
43.9
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling
8.4
9.3
10.0
10.9
12.3
14.1
Total
490.0
508.7
525.1
540.0
552.3
561.3

SERIES II

Family households
Couple families with children
Husband, wife or partner
114.6
106.1
101.7
99.9
100.3
100.6
Child
115.3
113.5
112.5
112.5
113.1
112.6
Other related individual
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
Couple families without children
Husband, wife or partner
113.4
127.4
139.1
147.8
152.7
155.5
Other related individual
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
One-parent families
Male parent
4.2
4.6
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.2
Female parent
19.5
21.1
21.9
22.5
22.9
23.3
Child
37.6
41.4
43.5
44.8
45.0
44.9
Other related individual
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
Other families
Related person living in an other family
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
Total(a)
415.9
425.6
435.1
444.0
450.9
454.1
Group households
Group household member
13.6
14.5
14.9
15.0
14.9
15.1
Lone person households
Male lone person
23.3
26.8
29.3
31.1
32.2
33.1
Female lone person
28.8
32.2
35.3
38.3
41.4
44.2
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling
8.4
9.6
10.6
11.6
12.9
14.7
Total
490.0
508.7
525.1
540.0
552.3
561.3

SERIES III

Family households
Couple families with children
Husband, wife or partner
114.6
106.1
97.6
89.9
82.7
76.0
Child
115.3
113.5
110.9
108.3
105.1
100.7
Other related individual
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
Couple families without children
Husband, wife or partner
113.4
127.4
140.5
151.2
158.7
163.6
Other related individual
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
One-parent families
Male parent
4.2
4.6
4.9
5.3
5.6
6.0
Female parent
19.5
21.1
22.5
24.0
25.5
27.1
Child
37.6
41.4
45.4
49.8
54.3
58.4
Other related individual
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
Other families
Related person living in an other family
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.4
Total(a)
415.9
425.6
433.5
440.1
444.2
444.7
Group households
Group household member
13.6
14.5
15.0
15.2
15.3
15.5
Lone person households
Male lone person
23.3
26.8
30.4
33.9
37.4
40.8
Female lone person
28.8
32.2
35.5
38.6
41.6
44.3
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling
8.4
9.6
10.8
12.1
13.8
16.1
Total
490.0
508.7
525.1
540.0
552.3
561.3

(a) Includes unrelated individuals in family households.






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