3238.0 - Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2001 to 2026 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/04/2014   
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Contents >> Assumptions >> Paternity assumptions

PATERNITY ASSUMPTIONS

Three main assumptions have been made for future paternity rates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated:

  • constant paternity rates;
  • an annual increase of 1.0% in paternity rates; and
  • an annual increase of 2.0% in paternity rates.

The total paternity rate (TPR) is defined in this release as the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander babies born per Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander father where the mother's Indigenous status is non-Indigenous or not stated, and is calculated in the same way as the TFR.

The same rate of increase in paternity rates has been assumed for each state and territory, Indigenous Region, and Remoteness Area; that is, each geographic area is assumed to experience a 1.0% annual increase in paternity rates over the projection period for Series B.

The effect of alternative paternity assumptions on the number of projected births and size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is described in Chapter 4.


Trends in paternity rates

As with the TFR, the time series of the TPR (graph 2.10) is based on population estimates which are not strictly comparable over time. Based on birth registrations, the TPR has been slowly increasing over the past decade, from 0.83 births per Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander man in 1998 to 1.19 in 2012.

Paternity rates prior to 1998 are not available as information on births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fathers was not available for all states and territories, and no 'children ever born' question is asked of males in the Census.

2.10 Total Paternity Rates(a), Australia, 1998-2012
Graph: 2.10 Total Paternity Rates(a), Australia, 1998–2012



Method used to produce paternity assumptions

Assumed paternity rates were calculated using the same method as that used for assumed fertility rates. This involved the calculation of age-specific paternity rates based on 2010-2012 registered births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fathers where the mother's Indigenous status is non-Indigenous or not stated, which were then adjusted to ensure consistency with the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population at younger ages. The assumption of a 1.0% annual increase in paternity rates for Series B was applied consistently across the relevant age groups.

2.11 ASSUMED PATERNITY RATES, States and territories

AGE-SPECIFIC PATERNITY RATES(a)
15-19(b)
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49(c)
TPR(d)

YEAR ENDED 30 JUNE 2012

NSW
11.6
45.0
64.1
63.0
39.0
16.8
10.3
1.25
Vic.
10.9
46.5
68.3
68.1
43.7
22.0
12.0
1.36
Qld
9.1
40.3
48.4
45.7
25.9
11.7
7.0
0.94
SA
8.8
30.3
42.9
39.8
27.7
12.7
5.5
0.84
WA
7.7
25.7
33.7
33.6
18.1
9.8
5.1
0.67
Tas.
13.9
64.0
73.9
57.4
43.1
15.3
13.3
1.40
NT
1.4
6.7
11.2
11.1
7.5
3.5
3.0
0.22
ACT
8.1
32.7
56.8
55.4
59.0
22.1
17.3
1.26
Aust.(e)
9.2
36.2
47.8
45.9
28.2
12.9
7.8
0.94

YEAR ENDED 30 JUNE 2026

NSW
13.3
51.7
73.7
72.4
44.8
19.3
11.8
1.44
Vic.
12.5
53.4
78.5
78.3
50.3
25.3
13.7
1.56
Qld
10.5
46.3
55.7
52.5
29.7
13.4
8.0
1.08
SA
10.1
34.9
49.3
45.8
31.9
14.6
6.3
0.96
WA
8.8
29.5
38.7
38.6
20.8
11.2
5.9
0.77
Tas.
16.0
73.6
85.0
66.0
49.5
17.6
15.3
1.62
NT
1.7
7.7
12.9
12.8
8.6
4.1
3.4
0.26
ACT
9.3
37.6
65.3
63.6
67.8
25.4
19.9
1.44
Aust.(e)
10.6
41.7
54.9
52.7
32.5
14.9
9.0
1.08

(a) Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men, where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated, per 1,000 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men.
(b) Includes births to fathers aged less than 15 years.
(c) Includes births to fathers aged 50 years and over.
(d) Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men, where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated, per Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander man.
(e) Includes Other Territories.



Regional variations in paternity

Indigenous Regions

Assumed paternity rates for IREGs were calculated and adjusted in the same way as for the states and territories.

2.12 ASSUMED TOTAL PATERNITY RATES(a), Indigenous Regions

30 June 2012
30 June 2026

Sydney IREG
1.17
1.35
Rest of NSW
1.29
1.49
Melbourne IREG
1.22
1.40
Rest of Vic.
1.56
1.80
Brisbane IREG
1.26
1.45
Rest of Qld
0.78
0.90
Adelaide IREG
1.11
1.28
Rest of SA
0.38
0.44
Perth IREG
0.91
1.04
Rest of WA
0.52
0.60
Tasmania IREG
1.40
1.62
Darwin IREG
0.64
0.74
Rest of NT
0.10
0.11
ACT IREG
1.26
1.44
Australia(b)
0.94
1.08

(a) Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men, where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated, per Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander man.
(b) Includes Other Territories.


Remoteness Areas

Assumed paternity rates for Remoteness Areas were calculated and adjusted using the same technique as for the states and territories.

2.13 ASSUMED TOTAL PATERNITY RATES(a), Remoteness Areas

30 June 2012
30 June 2026

Major Cities
1.20
1.38
Inner and Outer Regional
1.12
1.29
Remote and Very Remote
0.25
0.29
Australia(b)
0.94
1.08

(a) Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men, where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated, per Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander man.
(b) Includes Other Territories.


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