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3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2031 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/06/2010   
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Contents >> Chapter 5 What If ... >> INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

Chapters 3 and 4 present projected numbers of households, families and persons in different living arrangements, using three assumptions about changes in living arrangements and a single assumption about the future population of Australia (that is, the Series B population projection from Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101, cat. no. 3222.0, which reaches 28.8 million persons by 2031).

Naturally the size and age/sex structure of this future population will influence the number of future households, families and people in different living arrangements. This chapter briefly discusses the results of using two other projections of the population, the Series A and C projections from Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0), as the assumption about the future population of Australia (see table 5.1). These two series result in the largest and smallest projected populations, respectively, for Australia.

5.1 Population projections, Assumptions used

Population projection
Series A
Series B
Series C

Assumptions
Total fertility rate(a) babies per woman
2.0
1.8
1.6
Life expectancy at birth(b)
Male years
93.9
85.0
85.0
Female years
96.1
88.0
88.0
Net overseas migration(c) persons
220 000
180 000
140 000
Population
2006 million
20.7
20.7
20.7
2031 million
30.9
28.8
27.1
2051 million
40.1
34.2
30.3
Projected growth, 2006-2031
Total %
50
39
31
Average annual %
1.6
1.3
1.1

(a) From 2021.
(b) From 2056.
(c) From 2010-11 in Series A and C. From 2007-08 in Series B.


The population of Australia is projected to grow between 2006 and 2031 in all three series, but at differing rates. Series A, which assumes relatively high fertility rates, life expectancy at birth and net overseas migration, results in a population of 30.9 million people in 2031, an increase of 50% overall since 2006. This population is 2.2 million more than the projected number of people in Series B (28.8 million). Series C, which assumes relatively low fertility rates, life expectancy and migration, results in a population of 27.1 million people in 2031, an increase of 31% overall since 2006. This is 1.7 million people fewer than the Series B projection.





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