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6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Jun 2014 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 23/07/2014   
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MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE


CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis uses original, not seasonally adjusted, estimates.

Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter
Graph: Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter



HOUSING (+0.8%)

The main contributors to the rise in the housing group for the June quarter 2014 were new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.6%) and rents (+0.6%).

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the housing group rose 3.9%. The main contributors to the rise were new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+3.2%), rents (+2.4%) and electricity (+5.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 1.1% in the June quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.6%).


HEALTH GROUP (+2.9%)

The main contributor to the rise in the health group for the June quarter 2014 was medical and hospital services (+4.6%), which rose mainly as a result of the increases in private health fund premiums effective from 1 April 2014 and the indexation to the Private Health Insurance rebate effective from 1 April 2014. The rise was partially offset by a fall in pharmaceutical products (-1.9%), mainly due to a greater proportion of consumers exceeding the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme safety net compared to the March quarter 2014.

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the health group rose 4.9%. The main contributor to the rise was medical and hospital services (+6.6%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 1.4% in the June quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was medical and hospital services (+2.2%).


ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+1.6%)

The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group for the June quarter 2014 was tobacco (+3.1%), partially due to the flow-on effects of the federal excise tax increase from 1 March 2014.

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 7.1%. The main contributor to the rise was tobacco (+13.9%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.3% in the June quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was tobacco (+2.4%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES (+1.1%)

The main contributor to the rise in the furnishings, household equipment and services group for the June quarter 2014 was furniture (+4.8%).

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 1.0%. The main contributor to the rise was child care (+7.6%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose by 0.1% in the June quarter 2014.


TRANSPORT GROUP (-0.7%)

There was a fall for the transport group for the June quarter 2014 due to decreases in automotive fuel (-2.7%).

Automotive fuel fell in February (-0.2%), was flat in March (0.0%), fell in April (-0.2%) and May (-5.5%) and rose in June (+3.9%).

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

Diagram: TRANSPORT GROUP (–0.7%)

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the transport group rose 2.7%. The main contributor to the rise was automotive fuel (+7.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group fell 0.6% in the June quarter 2014. The main contributor to the fall was automotive fuel (-2.5%).


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (+0.4%)

The main contributors to the rise in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group for the June quarter 2014 were lamb and goat (+8.3%) and other meats (+4.8%). The rise was partially offset by falls in vegetables (-1.4%) and fruit (-1.4%).

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 2.5%. The main contributors to the rise were fruit (+7.3%), takeaway foods (+2.4%), vegetables (+4.2%) and restaurant meals (+2.1%). The rise was partially offset by falls in other cereal products (-2.8%) and coffee, tea and cocoa (-2.4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 0.8% in the June quarter 2014. The main contributors to the rise were lamb and goat (+7.3%) and fruit (+1.8%).


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (+1.5%)

The main contributors to the rise in the clothing and footwear group for the June quarter 2014 were garments for men (+3.2%) and garments for women (+0.8%).

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.6%. The main contributor to the fall was garments for women (-1.2%). This was partially offset by a rise in garments for men (+0.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group rose 0.2% in the June quarter 2014.


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-1.7%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group for the June quarter 2014 was telecommunication equipment and services (-1.6%).

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the communication group fell 0.3%. The main contributor to the fall was telecommunication equipment and services (-0.5%).

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (-0.3%)

The main contributors to the fall in the recreation and culture group for the June quarter 2014 were domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-3.8%) and audio, visual and computing media and services (-1.8%). The fall was partially offset by a rise in international holiday travel and accommodation (+3.6%).

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the recreation and culture group rose 3.3%. The main contributors to the rise were international holiday travel and accommodation (+10.1%) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+3.9%).

In the CPI, airfares are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (April for travel in June) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (May for travel in June).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group rose 0.8% in the June quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was international holiday travel and accommodation (+4.0%).


EDUCATION GROUP (0.0%)

The education group recorded no movement in the June quarter 2014.

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the education group rose 5.1%. The main contributor to the rise was secondary education (+6.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 1.2% in the June quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was secondary education (+1.4%).


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (0.0%)

The insurance and financial services group recorded no movement in the June quarter 2014. A positive movement was recorded for other financial services (0.6%), which was offset by a fall in insurance (-1.3%).

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the insurance and financial services group rose 1.0%. The main contributor to the rise was other financial services (+2.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.2% in the June quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was other financial services (+0.6%).


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component (see Table 8) of the All groups CPI rose 0.6% in the June quarter 2014. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market. The tradables component represents approximately 40% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributors to the 0.3% rise in tradable goods component were tobacco, furniture, lamb and goat, other meats and garments for men. The most significant offsetting falls in the tradable goods component were automotive fuel, other food products n.e.c., household textiles, pharmaceutical products and audio, visual and computing media and services. The rise in the tradable services component of 3.6% was driven by international holiday travel and accommodation.

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2014. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures. The non-tradables component represents approximately 60% of the weight of the CPI. The non-tradables goods component rose 0.8% mainly due to new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers, beer and take away and fast foods. The most significant offsetting falls were for electricity, pets and related products and poultry. The non-tradable services component rose 0.3% mainly due to increases in medical and hospital services, rents, sports participation and restaurant meals. The most significant offsetting falls were for domestic holiday travel and accommodation, telecommunication equipment and services and insurance.

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the tradables component rose 2.9% and the non-tradables component rose 3.1%. This compares to a rise of 2.6% and a rise of 3.1% respectively through the year to the March quarter 2014.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component rose 0.4% in the June quarter 2014, and the non-tradables component rose 0.7%.

A detailed description of which expenditure classes are classified as tradable and non-tradable in the 16th series is shown in Appendix 1 of the September quarter 2011 issue of Consumer Price Index, Australia (cat. no 6401.0).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

In the June quarter 2014, the All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.6%, compared to the original All groups CPI which recorded a rise of 0.5%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.8% in the June quarter 2014, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the March quarter 2014. Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the trimmed mean rose 2.9%, compared to a rise of 2.6% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2014.

The weighted median rose 0.6% in the June quarter 2014, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the March quarter 2014. Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2014, the weighted median rose 2.7% compared to a revised rise of 2.7%, over the twelve months to the March quarter 2014.

Weighted average of eight capital cities, percentage change from previous period

Original
Seasonally adjusted
Mar Qtr 2014 to
Jun Qtr 2014
Mar Qtr 2014 to
Jun Qtr 2014

All groups CPI
0.5
0.6
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
0.4
0.8
Alcohol and tobacco
1.6
1.3
Clothing and footwear
1.5
0.2
Housing
0.8
1.1
Furnishings, household equipment and services
1.1
0.1
Health
2.9
1.4
Transport
-0.7
-0.6
Communication(a)
-1.7
-1.7
Recreation and culture
-0.3
0.8
Education
0.0
1.2
Insurance and financial services
0.0
0.2
International trade exposure series
Tradables
0.6
0.4
Non-tradables
0.5
0.7

(a) not seasonally adjusted.


Changes have been made to the seasonal adjustment of:
  • tobacco - a trend break has been applied from the March quarter 2014, reflecting the increase in Federal excise tax of 12.5% from 1 December 2013; and
  • medical and hospital services - a seasonal break has been applied from the June quarter 2014, reflecting the annual indexation of the government rebate on private health insurance from 1 April 2014.

A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. This paper includes a description of the seasonal adjustment methodology used to calculate the trimmed mean and weighted median measures of underlying inflation.

Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.


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Commonwealth of Australia 2014

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