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5310.0.55.002 - Information Paper: Implementation of new international statistical standards in ABS National and International Accounts, September 2009  
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 28/10/2009  First Issue
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CHAPTER 3 INDICATIVE IMPACTS ON NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

Warning: The estimates in this publication are indicative. They are presented to give an indication of the magnitude of the impacts of proposed change to Australia's macro-economic accounts. All estimates are subject to refinement and revision in the compilation of the annual Australian System of National Accounts to be published on 8 December 2009 and in the quarterly Australian National Accounts to be published on 16 December 2009.

INTRODUCTION

From the 2008-09 issue of the Australian System of National Accounts (ASNA), data will be presented in accordance with the following revised standards:
  • System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA08);
  • Balance of Payments and International Investment Position sixth edition (BPM6);
  • Australian and New Zealand Standard Industry Classification 2006 (ANZSIC06); and,
  • Standard of Economic Sector Classifications of Australia 2008 (SESCA08) basis.

The changes being implemented with these new standards will impact on the value of some key aggregates. In addition, data quality improvements will result in a shift in the level of some series. To maintain the integrity of time series, level shifts will be back cast.


KEY AGGREGATES IN CURRENT PRICES

It is expected that implementing these changes and the incorporation of revisions in the Australian System of National Accounts (table 1) will increase the level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by about $50,000 million (4.4%) and will increase industry output, as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA), by about $52,000 million (5.0%) in 2007-08.

1 Changes to Key Aggregates, current prices

1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Key Aggregates
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m

GDP (SNA93)
486 607
518 144
545 698
577 373
607 759
645 058
689 262
735 714
781 675
841 351
897 642
967 454
1 045 674
1 132 172
GDP (SNA08)
499 785
532 025
559 260
591 514
622 695
663 867
708 889
759 204
804 361
864 955
925 864
1 000 787
1 091 327
1 181 750
GVA (SNA93)
445 923
474 908
500 550
530 293
558 399
592 632
628 123
671 804
711 050
766 151
821 859
887 959
962 501
1 039 829
GVA (SNA08)
459 101
488 790
514 113
544 435
573 351
611 573
647 900
695 345
733 855
790 091
850 525
921 810
1 007 187
1 091 716



For full descriptions of GDP and GVA see Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods (cat. no. 5216.0).

The main contributors will be the capitalisation of research and development (R&D), and revised estimates of finance and insurance services output which are discussed later in this chapter.

Figure 1 - GDP, current prices
Graph: Figure 1 - GDP, current prices


Figure 2 - GVA, current prices
Graph: Figure 2 - GVA, current prices



INCOME AT CURRENT PRICES

Table 2 shows the revisions result from a variety of factors, including:
  • General government consumption of fixed capital ($4,460 million in 2005-06) from the capitalisation of R&D and defence weapons platforms (DWP). These inclusions will have general government owning two additional assets that lead to consequent increases in consumption of fixed capital;
  • capitalisation of private and public trading enterprise R&D and orchard growth ($10,456 million in 2005-06) will lead to additional gross operating surplus (GOS) as additional output is produced with no change to intermediate consumption. General government output is measured at cost and therefore increased COFC results in an increase in measured output and GVA; and
  • compensation of employees (CoE) has been revised as level estimates from the Annual Integrated Collection (AIC) have been incorporated for reference year 2006/07. The resulting level shift has been backcast through the ASNA time series. This level shift has impacts across most industries.

2 Revisions to Income, current prices

1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Income
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m

GDP (SNA93)
486 607
518 144
545 698
577 373
607 759
645 058
689 262
735 714
781 675
841 351
897 642
967 454
1 045 674
1 132 172
Revisions
Compensation of Employees
8 596
9 373
10 424
11 466
12 413
13 299
14 265
15 038
16 464
18 014
19 965
22 642
32 725
36 389
Gross Operating Surplus (incl. GMI)
4 584
4 506
3 135
2 673
2 477
5 578
5 467
8 464
6 421
5 978
8 848
11 479
11 810
12 271
Net Taxes on Production
-1
1
-1
1
45
-68
-99
-19
-205
-385
-588
-786
1 118
420
GDP (SNA08)
499 785
532 025
559 260
591 514
622 695
663 867
708 889
759 204
804 361
864 955
925 864
1 000 787
1 091 327
1 181 750




EXPENDITURE AT CURRENT PRICES

Table 3 shows these revisions for 2005-06:
  • Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) will fall as R&D and DWP are capitalised (-$6,117 million) and will increase due to the additional consumption of fixed capital (COFC) ($4,460 million) with -$234 million for other revisions; and,
  • three sectors will increase gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) to account for the capitalisation of R&D ($9,669 million in private, $251 million in public trading enterprises (PTE) and $2,921 million in general government), DWP ($3,196 million in general government) and orchard growth ($536 million in private). The remaining revisions will increase GFCF by $2,018 million.

Other revisions will include:
  • following the use of improved source data and methods, there were significant revisions to estimates for insurance service charge (ISC) and FISIM consumed by Households. The ISC revisions amounted to about $12,500 million in 2006-07 and about $15,000 million in 2007-08; the FISIM revisions amounted to about $8,200 million and about $7,300 million in 2007-08;
  • there will be product detail changes to household final consumption expenditure. Examples include revisions to air passenger transport services based on changes to other government transport data and take away food which will use an improved estimate of price change; and
  • changes to the treatment of exports and imports will lead to a $834 million reduction in net exports.

3 Revisions to expenditure at current prices

1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Expenditure
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m

GDP (SNA93)
486 607
518 144
545 698
577 373
607 759
645 058
689 262
735 714
781 675
841 351
897 642
967 454
1 045 674
1 132 172
Revisions
GFCE
-1 161
-1 253
-1 538
-1 272
-1 270
-547
-984
-437
-890
-1 112
-1 608
-1 498
-246
1 242
GFCF - Private
4 298
5 168
5 093
5 063
5 221
5 403
6 133
7 309
8 514
9 446
10 334
11 441
13 806
14 425
GFCF - Public Trading Enterprises
191
131
63
131
176
66
168
358
251
158
213
508
225
318
GFCF - General Government
3 325
3 560
3 682
3 870
4 407
4 540
5 123
4 997
5 231
4 848
5 970
6 643
5 611
8 459
GFCF Total
7 814
8 859
8 838
9 064
9 804
10 009
11 424
12 664
13 996
14 452
16 517
18 592
19 642
23 202
Other revisions
6 525
6 275
6 262
6 349
6 402
9 347
9 187
11 263
9 580
10 264
13 313
16 239
26 257
25 134
GDP (SNA08)
499 785
532 025
559 260
591 514
622 695
663 867
708 889
759 204
804 361
864 955
925 864
1 000 787
1 091 327
1 181 750




COMPONENTS OF REVISIONS TO GVA AT CURRENT PRICES

Table 4 shows the components of expected revisions to GVA. For example in 2007-08, the key components of change will be from these revisions (table 4):
  • capitalisation of R&D which will increase the level of GVA by about 1.6%;
  • introduction of DWP or systems as capital in the accounts and associated COFC of these assets which will increase the level of GVA by about 0.2%; and,
  • introduction of orchard growth which will increase the level of GVA by about 0.1%.

4 Revisions to GVA, key components - current prices

1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m

GVA (SNA93)
445 923
474 908
500 550
530 293
558 399
592 632
628 123
671 804
711 050
766 151
821 859
887 959
962 501
1 039 829
Revisions
Orchard growth
300
380
457
497
561
623
592
563
551
509
532
536
681
638
R&D GFCF
5 433
6 252
6 049
6 107
6 188
6 324
7 237
8 576
9 393
10 335
11 267
12 841
14 456
16 404
DWP COFC
1 225
1 229
1 143
1 266
1 407
1 512
1 795
1 977
1 876
1 605
1 610
1 726
1 784
1 649
other revisions
7 302
7 313
7 197
7 734
8 118
11 567
11 596
13 778
12 462
13 239
17 123
20 770
32 096
41 249
GVA (SNA08)
460 183
490 082
515 396
545 897
574 673
612 658
649 343
696 698
735 332
791 839
852 391
923 832
1 011 518
1 099 769



A number of other revisions in industry components were implemented including revised estimates for the finance and insurance industry from the use of improved data sources and methodology. These amounted to about $40,000 million in 2006-07 and $52,000 million in 2007-08 but were offset by decreases in a number of other industries;


REVISIONS TO VOLUME MOVEMENTS

At the time of preparation of this paper it was not possible to compile revised GVA growth rates in chain volume terms that reflect the changes in standards and other revisions. However, given the substantial revisions to GVA levels in current prices and changed patterns of growth in current prices, an indicator of the likely change in growth rates in volume terms has been compiled. This indicator is the growth of GVA in previous year's prices.

This proxy measure from revisions to standards will show an increase of about 0.2 percentage points of the growth rate of GVA in 2005-06. Table 5 and figure 3 shows volume movements in other years show minimal movements.

5 Impacts on GVA growth rates, volume measures

1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
GROSS VALUE ADDED
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

GVA SNA93 (percentage change from previous year)
4.3
4.1
4.2
5.3
4.1
2.3
3.7
2.9
4.1
2.9
3.0
n.y.a
n.y.a
GVA SNA08 (percentage change from previous year)
4.4
4.0
4.1
5.2
4.0
2.4
3.8
3.0
4.2
2.9
3.2
n.y.a
n.y.a
Revision
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-
0.2
n.y.a
n.y.a

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
Source: n.y.a - not yet available

Figure 3 - GVA growth rates, SNA93 and SNA08 basis - volume measures
Graph: Figure 3 - GVA growth rates, SNA93 and SNA08 basis—volume measures


Revisions to volume movements in GDP will result from the following revisions (table 6):
  • removal of general government DWP and R&D will be moved from GFCE to GFCF;
  • addition of DWP, R&D and orchard growth to GFCF;
  • addition of general government COFC for DWP and R&D to GFCE;
  • addition of orchard growth to GFCF; and
  • output estimates of finance and insurance (ANZSIC06 Division K), education and training (ANZSIC06 Division P) and health care and social assistance (ANZSIC06 Division Q) will replace existing estimates for 2006-07 and 2007-08.

6 Components of and revisions to GDP (Expenditure), volume measures

1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
SNA08 & Revision groupings
% points
% points
% points
% points
% points
% points
% points
% points
% points
% points
% points
% points
% points

SNA93(a)
HFCE
3.6
2.5
4.6
5.0
4.4
3.6
3.0
3.4
5.5
4.4
2.6
4.0
3.7
GFCE
4.2
1.9
3.8
4.5
3.3
2.1
2.7
3.2
3.9
3.8
2.5
3.0
3.4
GFCF - Private
3.9
10.3
13.6
1.7
10.2
-11.1
9.8
16.3
8.4
5.8
8.8
4.9
10.5
GFCF - PTE
-5.8
-15.7
-15.4
45.1
-22.3
-4.7
14.0
6.5
11.5
12.9
18.7
1.0
6.3
GFCF - General Government
-1.7
8.8
-2.4
4.9
17.4
1.4
6.3
3.1
5.2
6.1
3.2
13.5
6.4
Exports
10.0
11.0
4.1
2.2
8.6
7.6
-1.0
-0.5
2.2
3.0
2.2
3.8
4.1
Imports
3.9
9.8
10.0
5.0
12.4
-1.0
1.5
13.0
13.0
12.2
7.2
9.2
12.9
GDP
4.1
3.9
4.5
5.2
4.0
1.9
3.8
3.2
4.0
2.8
3.0
3.3
3.6
SNA08(b)
HFCE
3.6
2.5
4.6
5.0
4.4
3.6
3.1
3.4
5.6
4.4
2.8
4.2
4.0
GFCE
4.2
2.0
4.0
4.3
3.3
1.7
3.1
3.0
4.2
3.2
2.5
3.7
3.2
GFCF - Private
4.6
9.6
12.9
1.6
9.8
-10.5
10.1
16.0
8.5
5.8
8.8
5.3
10.7
GFCF - PTE
-6.2
-16.1
-15.0
45.4
-22.8
-3.7
15.0
5.8
10.6
12.7
19.0
0.8
6.3
GFCF - General Government
-
7.8
-1.8
6.2
13.8
4.2
3.5
4.1
3.3
9.4
3.0
8.9
8.9
Exports
10.3
10.4
4.0
2.0
9.5
7.5
-0.7
-0.5
1.2
2.9
2.3
4.0
3.9
Imports
4.0
9.9
10.0
4.9
12.1
-1.2
1.4
13.3
12.6
12.3
7.3
9.2
14.1
GDP
4.2
3.9
4.4
5.2
4.0
2.0
3.8
3.2
4.1
2.8
3.1
3.8
3.7
Revision(c)
HFCE
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.1
-
0.1
-
0.2
0.2
0.3
GFCE
-
0.1
0.2
-0.2
-
-0.4
0.4
-0.2
0.3
-0.6
-
0.7
-0.2
GFCF - Private
0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.1
-0.4
0.6
0.3
-0.3
0.1
-
-
0.4
0.2
GFCF - PTE
-0.4
-0.4
0.4
0.3
-0.5
1.0
1.0
-0.7
-0.9
-0.2
0.3
-0.2
-
GFCF - General Government
1.7
-1.0
0.6
1.3
-3.6
2.8
-2.8
1.0
-1.9
3.3
-0.2
-4.6
2.5
Exports
0.3
-0.6
-0.1
-0.2
0.9
-0.1
0.3
-
-1.0
-0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.2
Imports
0.1
0.1
-
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
-0.4
0.1
0.1
-
1.2
GDP
0.1
-
-0.1
-
-
0.1
-
-
0.1
-
0.1
0.5
0.1

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Growth rates previously published
(b) Expected revised growth rates
(c) Revisions to published growth rates



IMPACT ON GDP PER CAPITA

The changes from international standards and other revisions will increase the level of GDP per capita by about $2,300 (4.4%) in 2007-08 (table 7). There will be minimal changes to the growth of GDP per capita over time.

7 Impact on GDP per capita, current prices

1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
GDP per capita
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

SNA 93
27 111.0
28 480
29 630
31 031
32 308
33 887
35 769
37 677
39 574
42 097
44 380
47 152
50 220
53 523
SNA 08
27 845
29 243
30 366
31 791
33 102
34 875
36 788
38 880
40 723
43 278
45 775
48 777
52 413
55 867
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Growth 93
n.a
5.0
4.0
4.7
4.1
4.9
5.6
5.3
5.0
6.4
5.4
6.2
6.5
6.6
Growth 08
n.a
5.0
3.8
4.7
4.1
5.4
5.5
5.7
4.7
6.3
5.8
6.6
7.5
6.6

Figure 4 - GDP per capita, current prices
Graph: Figure 4 - GDP per capita, current prices



IMPACTS ON INDUSTRY ESTIMATES

The next two tables show that there will be changes to the structure of ANZSIC GVA estimates from the changes in ANZSIC06. These numbers are indicative of the changes, contain revisions due to SNA08 and SESCA08 and are not presented as a concordance between the two industry classifications. For more information on the changes from ANZSIC06 see chapter 2.

8 ANZSIC93 Industry Gross Value Added, current prices ($m) - 2005-06

ANZSIC93 Industry Value Added
2005-06

(A) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing
27 457
(B) Mining
64 928
(C) Manufacturing
99 172
(D) Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
22 082
(E) Construction
62 474
(F) Wholesale Trade
45 073
(G) Retail Trade
54 728
(H) Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants
20 092
(I) Transport and Storage
43 632
(J) Communication Services
23 453
(K) Finance and Insurance
69 182
(L) Property and Business Services
112 705
(M) Government Administration and Defence
37 822
(N) Education
41 138
(O) Health and Community Services
56 868
(P) Cultural and Recreation Services
14 091
(Q) Personal and Other Services
17 713
( ) Ownership of Dwellings
75 349


9 ANZSIC06 Industry Gross Value Added, current prices ($m) - 2005-06

ANZSIC06 Industry Value Added
2005-06

(A) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
27 241
(B) Mining
66 384
(C) Manufacturing
99 822
(D) Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
22 769
(E) Construction
66 836
(F) Wholesale Trade
44 945
(G) Retail Trade
43 522
(H) Accommodation and Food Services
23 781
(I) Transport, Postal and Warehousing
48 073
(J) Information, Media and Telecommunications
32 328
(K) Financial and Insurance Services
91 857
(L) Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
28 830
(M) Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
55 708
(N) Administrative and Support Services
25 041
(O) Public Administration and Safety
51 938
(P) Education and Training
42 896
(Q) Health Care and Social Services
55 572
(R) Arts and Recreation Services
8 641
(S) Other Services
19 095
( ) Ownership of Dwellings
66 531




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