3238.0 - Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2001 to 2026 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/04/2014   
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Contents >> Sensitivity of projections to assumptions >> Life expectancy at birth

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

Series B assumes that life expectancy at birth for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples increases by 0.3 years per year for males and 0.25 years per year for females, reaching 73.5 years for males and 77.4 years for females by 2026. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken into the effect of alternative life expectancy at birth assumptions on the size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and the number of projected deaths.

Extra projection series were generated using the following assumptions:

  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth will increase by 0.2 years per year for males and 0.15 years per year for females, reaching 72.0 years for males and 75.9 years for females by 2026; and
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth will increase by 0.5 years per year for males and 0.45 years per year for females, reaching 76.5 years for males and 80.4 years for females by 2026.

Table 4.5 shows the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population at 30 June 2011 and the projected Australian and state/territory populations in 2026 under the three life expectancy at birth assumptions. Table 4.6 shows the number of deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people for 2012 and 2026 under these assumptions. For both tables, assumptions relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates, paternity rates and interstate migration are at levels specified in Series B.

4.5 PROJECTED ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION(a), Alternative life expectancy at birth assumptions - At 30 June 2011 and 2026

2026
2011
Series I(b)
Series B(c)
Series H(d)
'000
'000
'000
'000

NSW
208.5
282.0
283.0
284.7
Vic.
47.3
69.4
69.6
70.1
Qld
189.0
271.0
271.9
273.5
SA
37.4
51.1
51.2
51.5
WA
88.3
119.0
119.4
120.1
Tas.
24.2
33.9
34.0
34.1
NT
68.9
85.8
86.1
86.5
ACT
6.2
9.4
9.5
9.5
Aust.(e)
669.9
921.9
925.0
930.4

(a) Assuming Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates decline by 0.5% per year, paternity rates increase by 1.0% per year, and interstate migration remains at the levels observed in the 2011 Census.
(b) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.2 years per year for males and 0.15 years per year for females, reaching 72.0 years for males and 75.9 years for females by 2026.
(c) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.3 years per year for males and 0.25 years per year for females, reaching 73.5 years for males and 77.4 years for females by 2026.
(d) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.5 years per year for males and 0.45 years per year for females, reaching 76.5 years for males and 80.4 years for females by 2026.
(e) Includes Other Territories.

4.6 PROJECTED DEATHS OF ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER PERSONS(a), Alternative life expectancy at birth assumptions - Year ended 30 June 2012 and 2026

2026
2012(b)
Series I(c)
Series B(d)
Series H(e)
no.
no.
no.
no.

NSW
787
1 215
1 093
876
Vic.
270
352
322
268
Qld
818
1 239
1 124
924
SA
187
257
235
196
WA
335
525
476
389
Tas.
59
111
98
75
NT
198
345
310
247
ACT
10
24
21
16
Aust.(f)
2 666
4 070
3 681
2 993

(a) Assuming Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates decline by 0.5% per year, paternity rates increase by 1.0% per year, and interstate migration remains at the levels observed in the 2011 Census.
(b) Number of deaths projected under Series B.
(c) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.2 years per year for males and 0.15 years per year for females, reaching 72.0 years for males and 75.9 years for females by 2026.
(d) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.3 years per year for males and 0.25 years per year for females, reaching 73.5 years for males and 77.4 years for females by 2026.
(e) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.5 years per year for males and 0.45 years per year for females, reaching 76.5 years for males and 80.4 years for females by 2026.
(f) Includes Other Territories.


Using Series B life expectancy assumptions, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 925,000 in 2026. The number of deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people would increase from 2,700 in 2012 to 3,700 in 2026.

Assuming Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.2 years per year for males and 0.15 years per year for females (Series I), the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 921,900 people in 2026, 3,000 (0.3%) people less than in Series B. Under this assumption there would be 4,100 deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in 2026, 390 (11%) more than in Series B.

Assuming Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.5 years per year for males and 0.45 years per year for females (Series H), the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 930,400 people in 2026, 5,500 (0.6%) people more than in Series B. Under this assumption there would be 3,000 deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in 2026, 690 (19%) fewer than in Series B.


Interstate migration

In 2011, only one assumption was analysed for interstate migration. The future net interstate migration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people was set at constant levels as observed in the 2011 Census.


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