3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2011 to 2036 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/03/2015   
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WHAT IF...

INTRODUCTION

The previous sections of this publication present projected numbers of households, families and persons in different living arrangements, using three assumptions about changes in living arrangements and a single assumption about the future population of Australia (that is, the Series B population projection from Population Projections, Australia, 2012 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0)).

Naturally the size and age/sex structure of this future population will influence the number of future households, families and people in different living arrangements. This section briefly discusses the results of using two other projections of the population, the Series A and C projections from Population Projections, Australia, 2012 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0) as the assumption about the future population of Australia (see table 9.1). These two series result in the largest and smallest projected populations, respectively, for Australia.

The population of Australia is projected to grow between 2011 and 2036 in all three series, but at differing rates for each series. Series A (high series) results in a population of 34.4 million people in 2036, an increase of 54% overall from 2011. This population is 2.0 million more than the projected number of people in Series B (32.4 million). Series C (low series) results in a population of 30.7 million people in 2036, an increase of 38% overall from 2011. This is 1.7 million people fewer than the Series B projection.
9.1 Population Projections, assumptions used

Population Series
Series ASeries BSeries C

Assumptions (a)
    Total fertility rate
HighMediumLow
    Life expectancy
HighMediumMedium
    Net overseas migration
HighMediumLow
Population
    2011
million22.322.322.3
    2036
million34.432.430.7
Projected growth, 2011-2036
    Total
%54.245.137.5
    Average annual
%1.751.501.28

(a) For details on the specific assumptions see Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0)


HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS

Using the Series B projection as the assumption about the future population of Australia results in a projection of between 12.6 and 12.7 million households in Australia in 2036. This is an increase of between 4.2 and 4.3 million households. If instead the Series A projection were used as the future population, the number of households would be an additional 4% higher than using Series B, increasing by between 4.7 and 4.8 million households to reach between 13.1 and 13.2 million households in 2036. If the Series C projection were used, the number would be 3% lower than using Series B, increasing by between 3.8 and 4.0 million households to reach between 12.2 and 12.4 million households.

Graph Image for 9.2 Projected households, Australia (selected series combinations)

Similar results are apparent for all household types, with higher numbers of family, group and lone person households being projected using the Series A population and fewer numbers being projected using the Series C population. The use of different population projection series (A, B or C) has relatively little impact on the proportion of households in each household type. For example, family households make up 69% of all households for Series II regardless of which population is used. The impact of the population projection series is therefore primarily on the number of each type of household, rather than on the proportion relative to the population.

9.3 Projected households, Using different population projections

Population projection series(a)
Series A
Series B
Series C
Series and household type(b)
'000
'000
'000

ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS, 2011

Households
Family
5 999.4
5 999.4
5 999.4
Group
367.9
367.9
367.9
Lone person
2 052.6
2 052.6
2 052.6
Total
8 420.0
8 420.0
8 420.0

PROJECTED HOUSEHOLDS, 2036

Series I
Family
9 176.3
8 836.4
8 569.5
Group
527.5
504.0
482.6
Lone person
3 528.6
3 387.5
3 321.7
Total
13 232.4
12 727.9
12 373.7
Series II
Family
9 140.1
8 801.2
8539.7
Group
536.2
512.9
491.7
Lone person
3 508.0
3 367.4
3 301.0
Total
13 184.3
12 681.5
12 332.4
Series III
Family
9 070.2
8 732.8
8 480.6
Group
550.3
527.2
506.3
Lone person
3 449.7
3 311.9
3 244.7
Total
13 070.1
12 571.9
12 231.7

(a) Series A, B and C refer to 3 different population projections based on different assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2012 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0).
(b) Series I, II and III refer to assumptions made about future living arrangements of the population of Australia. See Section 2 - Assumptions for more detail.


FAMILY PROJECTIONS

Using the Series B projection as the future population, the number of families in Australia is projected to reach between 8.9 and 9.1 million in 2036. Similarly to the projected number of households, if the Series A population is used instead of Series B, higher numbers of families are projected (between 9.3 and 9.4 million in 2036), while if Series C is used, fewer families are projected (between 8.7 and 8.8 million). Similar results are also apparent for all family types. As with household projections, the impact of using series A or C rather than series B is seen in the size of the numerical increase for each family type, rather than the proportion of each family type relative to the population.

Graph Image for 9.4 Projected families, Australia (selected series combinations)

9.5 Projected number of families, using different population projections

Population projection series (a)
Series A
Series B
Series C
Series and family type (b)
'000
'000
'000

ESTIMATED FAMILIES, 2011

Families
    Couples families with children
2 712.3
2 712.3
2 712.3
    Couple families without children
2 328.5
2 328.5
2 328.5
    One parent families
        Male parent
173.6
173.6
173.6
        Female parent
818.8
818.8
818.8
    Total
992.4
992.4
992.4
    Other families
111.0
111.0
111.0
    Total
6 144.1
6 144.1
6 144.1

PROJECTED FAMILIES, 2036

Series I
    Couples families with children
3 948.9
3 795.4
3 652.5
    Couple families without children
3 762.8
3 638.0
3 561.5
    One parent families
        Male parent
268.8
258.9
251.9
        Female parent
1 253.2
1 202.6
1 163.5
        Total
1 522.0
1 461.5
1 415.4
    Other families
165.9
158.3
152.1
    Total
9 399.6
9053.1
8 781.5
Series II
    Couples families with children
3 770.0
3 624.8
3 490.5
    Couple families without children
3 834.2
3 703.9
3 626.2
    One parent families
        Male parent
291.1
280.6
273.1
        Female parent
1 308.6
1 256.5
1 216.1
        Total
1 599.8
1 537.0
1 489.2
    Other families
158.5
151.3
145.0
    Total
9 362.4
9 016.9
8 750.9
Series III
    Couples families with children
3 425.0
3 295.0
3 176.4
    Couple families without children
3 957.7
3 817.7
3 737.5
    One parent families
        Male parent
332.2
320.3
311.9
        Female parent
1 423.8
1 368.7
1 325.6
        Total
1 756.0
1 689.0
1 637.5
    Other families
151.9
145.1
138.8
    Total
9 290.5
8 946.7
8 690.1

(a) Series A, B and C refer to 3 different population projections based on different assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2012 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0).
(b) Series I, II and III refer to assumptions made about future living arrangements of the population of Australia. See Section 2 - Assumptions for more detail.
    LIVING ARRANGEMENT PROJECTIONS

    The different age structures of the population projection series A, B and C result in differences in the proportion of the projected population in each type of living arrangement.
    9.6 Projected living arrangement proportions, using different population projections (series II)

    2011
    2036
    Series A
    Series B
    Series C
    %
    %
    %
    %

    Partner in couple family with children
    24.3
    21.9
    22.4
    22.7
    Child in a couple family
    24.8
    23.9
    22.7
    21.3
    Partner in couple family without children
    20.8
    22.3
    22.8
    23.6
    Lone parent
    4.4
    4.6
    4.7
    4.8
    Child in lone parent family
    7.2
    7.7
    7.4
    7.1
    Group household member
    3.7
    3.5
    3.5
    3.6
    Lone person
    9.2
    10.2
    10.4
    10.7
    Usual resident of a non-private dwelling
    1.9
    2.2
    2.2
    2.3
    Other
    3.6
    3.7
    3.7
    3.8