3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2011 to 2036 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/03/2015   
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STATES AND TERRITORIES


INCREASES IN HOUSEHOLDS IN ALL STATES AND TERRITORIES

Between 2011 and 2036, household numbers are projected to increase in all states and territories. Lone person households are projected to be the fastest growing household type between 2011 and 2036, although family households will remain the most common household type.

Growth in the number of households is naturally related to growth in population, with the largest increases projected to occur in the most populous states, and the fastest increases expected in the states with the fastest population growth projected for 2011-2036. Victoria is projected to experience the largest increase over the period, increasing by 1.1 million households. New South Wales and Queensland are both projected to gain 1.0 million households. Based on the current population projections, the state with the fastest projected household growth is Western Australia, which is projected to increase by between 85% and 93%. The slowest projected household increase, 18%, is projected for Tasmania.


CAPITAL CITY AND BALANCE OF STATE/TERRITORY HOUSEHOLDS

In 2011, around two-thirds (65%) of all households in Australia were located in a capital city. This is projected to increase to 68% of households in 2036. Table 8.1 presents the increase in number of households over the 25-year projection period, including the percentage increase for each capital city and balance of state or territory.

With the exception of Darwin, all capital cities are projected to experience higher rates of household growth than the balance of the respective states and territories. This reflects the higher rates of growth for capital cities in the projected population over the next 25 years. The fastest growing capital city is Perth, where the number of households is projected to increase by between 96% and 102% by 2036. In contrast, the balance of Tasmania is projected to experience the lowest percentage increase in the number of households over the 25-year period, increasing by 14%.

Melbourne is projected to record the highest numeric increase in households of all capital cities and balances of state/territory over the projection period, with an extra 922,000 to 939,000 households by 2036, reaching 2.5 million households. Sydney is projected to record the second largest increase, increasing by between 779,000 and 820,000 households, resulting in 2.4 to 2.5 million households by 2036. The greater increase in Melbourne is mainly due to higher projected population growth for Melbourne (54%) compared to Sydney (43%) over the projection period.


8.1 Projected number of households

2011

2036

Increase, 2011-2036

Series I
Series II
Series III
Series I
Series II
Series III
Region
'000
'000
'000
'000
%
%
%

Sydney
1 658.4
2 478.6
2 464.7
2 437.6
49.5
48.6
47.0
Balance of NSW
1 031.1
1 253.0
1 256.8
1 261.5
21.5
21.9
22.3
Total NSW
2 689.5
3 731.6
3 721.5
3 699.0
38.7
38.4
37.5
Melbourne
1 541.1
2 479.9
2 475.1
2 463.1
60.9
60.6
59.8
Balance of Vic.
557.7
710.1
715.2
724.7
27.3
28.2
29.9
Total Vic.
2 098.8
3 190.0
3 190.3
3 187.8
52.0
52.0
51.9
Brisbane
787.1
1 306.5
1 296.9
1 277.0
66.0
64.8
62.2
Balance of Qld
891.9
1 385.6
1 385.0
1 380.9
55.3
55.3
54.8
Total Qld
1 679.0
2 692.0
2 681.9
2 657.9
60.3
59.7
58.3
Adelaide
504.4
673.3
672.3
669.6
33.5
33.3
32.8
Balance of SA
156.1
179.3
180.4
182.1
14.9
15.6
16.7
Total SA
660.5
852.5
852.7
851.7
29.1
29.1
29.0
Perth
684.8
1 383.7
1 370.0
1 343.0
102.1
100.1
96.1
Balance of WA
189.3
305.2
295.4
271.0
61.2
56.1
43.1
Total WA
874.1
1 688.9
1 665.4
1 614.0
93.2
90.5
84.6
Hobart
88.1
108.5
108.6
108.4
23.1
23.2
23.0
Balance of Tas.
119.4
135.5
135.8
136.1
13.5
13.7
14.0
Total Tas.
207.5
244.0
244.4
244.5
17.6
17.7
17.8
Darwin
45.2
65.8
65.3
63.3
45.6
44.4
40.1
Balance of NT
25.5
42.7
42.1
40.8
67.6
65.2
60.1
Total NT
70.7
108.6
107.4
104.1
53.5
51.9
47.3
Total ACT
139.1
219.1
216.8
211.9
57.6
55.9
52.3
Total capital cities(a)
5 448.2
8 715.4
8 669.7
8 573.9
60.0
59.1
57.4
Total balance of state(b)
2 971.8
4 012.5
4 011.7
3 998.0
35.0
35.0
34.5
Total Aust.(b)
8 420.0
12 727.9
12 681.5
12 571.9
51.2
50.6
49.3

(a) Includes Australian Capital Territory.
(b) Includes Other Territories.



STATE/TERRITORY HIGHLIGHTS

New South Wales
  • The most common living arrangement in New South Wales in 2011 was a child in a couple family.
  • The number of households and families is projected to increase in New South Wales at a slower rate than for Australia as a whole.

    Victoria
  • The number of households in Victoria is projected to top 3 million in 2032.
  • Although Victoria is projected to experience the largest increase in the number of households and number of families compared to other states and territories, the state is not projected to overtake New South Wales as having the highest number of households or families by 2036.

    Queensland
  • Queensland and Tasmania were the only states where there were fewer families living in the capital city than in the rest of the state in 2011.
  • Couple only families are projected to overtake couple families with children as the most common family type in Queensland in 2017 (series II and III) or 2022 (series I).

    South Australia
  • South Australia had the lowest proportion of family households, and the highest proportion of lone person households in Australia in 2011.
  • Couple only families are projected to have overtaken couple families with children as the most common family type in South Australia in 2012.

    Western Australia
  • The number of households in Western Australia grew by 13% from 2006 to 2011, higher than that of Australia, which grew by 8% over the same period.
  • Western Australia has the fastest projected increase in people living in non-private dwellings, due to a higher inclination of people in their 20s-30s to live in this type of arrangement. This may reflect the increase in fly-in fly-out workers over the last decade.

    Tasmania
  • Tasmania was the only state or territory where couple only families were the most common family type in 2011.
  • This is the only state where there is a projected numerical decline in a household type between 2011 and 2036 - the number of couple families with children is projected to decline by 640 households (1%).

    Northern Territory
  • The Northern Territory had the highest proportion of multi-family households, as well as the largest average household size of all the states and territories. These features were particularly prominent in the Balance of Northern Territory (the NT outside of the Greater Darwin area).
  • The Northern Territory is projected to continue to have the highest proportion of people living as usual residents of a non-private dwelling, reaching 5% of the NT in 2036, compared to 2% in Australia as a whole.

    Australian Capital Territory
  • People in the ACT were the least inclined to live in one-parent families, compared to other states and territories.
  • The ACT is projected to continue to have the highest proportion of people living as members of a group household, remaining at 5% of the ACT to 2036, compared to 4% of Australia as a whole.