3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/11/2018   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All RSS Feed RSS Bookmark and Share Search this Product


WESTERN AUSTRALIA


INTRODUCTION

The population projections presented in this release are not predictions or forecasts. They are an assessment of what would happen to Australia's population if the assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2018 and 2066.

The projections reveal the size, structure and distribution of the future population under various assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. These assumptions are based on long and short-term trends and future scenarios dictated by research in Australia and elsewhere.

For simplicity, most analysis is limited to three selected series which cover three sets of possible future population growth outcomes: higher (series A), medium (series B) and lower (series C). However, there are a total of 72 series available for use.

Selected projection series

ASSUMPTIONS
PROJECTED POPULATION
Life expectancy at birth(a)
Total fertility rate(b)
Males
Females
Net overseas migration(b)
Net interstate migration(b)
2027
2042
2066
babies per woman
years
years
persons
persons
'000
'000
'000

Series A
1.98
87.7
89.4
36 580
–10 000
2 935
3 667
4 926
Series B
1.83
83.0
86.3
29 930
500
2 941
3 652
4 760
Series C
1.68
83.0
86.3
23 280
7 000
2 928
3 572
4 493

(a) From 2066
(b) From 2027


PROJECTION RESULTS

Population size

Western Australia's population of 2.6 million people is projected to increase by between 0.7% and 1.7% per year, reaching a population between 3.6 million and 5.9 million in 2066.

The three selected series project continuing population growth throughout the projection period. In all three series, Western Australia will reach 2.9 million people by 2027. In series A, Western Australia experiences consistent growth, reaching 4.9 million in 2066. In series B, the population will reach 4.8 million in 2066 and in series C, growth is projected to be lower, with the population reaching 4.5 million in 2066.

The combination of assumptions in series 3 results in the largest population for Western Australia in 2027 (3.0 million people). The difference to series A is the assumption of smaller interstate migration flows, which result in a positive net flow for Western Australia. Conversely, series 52, which compared to series C has large interstate migration flows, resulting in negative net interstate migration, projects the smallest population by 2027 (2.8 million people).

Graph Image for Projected population, Western Australia

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



Most of Western Australia's growth is projected to occur in Greater Perth. At 30 June 2017, Greater Perth had 79% of Western Australia's population. This proportion could reach between 80% and 81% in 2027.

The population for Greater Perth is projected to increase from 2.0 million at 30 June 2017 to between 2.3 million (series 52) and 2.4 million (series 3) in 2027. Series A, B and C project population growth over the whole projection period, with series A increasing to 4.3 million in 2066, series B increasing to 4.0 million and series C increasing to 3.7 million.

Population growth for the rest of Western Australia is smaller, with the population increasing from 536,400 people in 2017 to between 588,200 (series 3) and 538,100 (series 52) in 2027. Series A, B and C project population growth over the whole projection period, with series A increasing to 595,700 in 2066, series B increasing to 714,800 and series C increasing to 766,700.

Graph Image for Projected population, Greater Perth

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



Graph Image for Projected population, Rest of Western Australia

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Natural increase

In 2016–17, there were 35,000 births and 14,900 deaths in Western Australia, resulting in natural increase of 20,100 people.

In all three series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths during the projection period, resulting in sustained natural increase for Western Australia.

In series A, numbers of both births and deaths increase over the projection period. The impact of the higher migration assumption adding to the younger population groups results in births increasing at a faster rate than deaths, leading natural increase to grow to 29,400 in 2066.

In series B, natural increase is projected to decline to 15,700 at the end of the projection series with lower numbers of births and higher numbers of deaths compared to series A.

In series C, the assumptions of lower fertility and medium life expectancy, coupled with lower net overseas migration, will see natural increase decline to 5,500 in 2066.

Below the state level, Greater Perth experiences natural increase over the projection period for all three series, but for the rest of Western Australia, steady numbers of births coupled with increasing deaths in series C results in natural decrease by 2052.

Graph Image for Projected natural increase, Western Australia

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Net overseas migration

In 2016–17, there were 49,000 overseas arrivals and 36,400 overseas departures in Western Australia, resulting in net overseas migration (NOM) of 12,600 people.

In all series, NOM is projected to increase from the low recorded in 2017, returning NOM to its long term average. Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive NOM.

Series A projects the largest NOM gain, of 36,600 in 2066. Series B projects NOM to increase to 29,900, and series C projects NOM to increase to 23,300 by 2066.

Greater Perth is assumed to receive around 90% of the state's NOM.


Net interstate migration

In 2016–17, there were 26,700 interstate arrivals and 40,600 interstate departures in Western Australia, resulting in a net interstate migration (NIM) loss of 13,900 people.

In series A, the higher assumption of large interstate flows results in a similar NIM loss of 10,000 people from 2027. In series B, NIM is projected to increase to a small NIM gain of 500 people from 2027. The series C assumption results in the highest NIM gain of 7,000 people from 2027.


POPULATION AGEING

Median age

In the three selected series, the median age of the population of Western Australia is projected to increase from 36.6 years at 30 June 2017 to 39.2 years (series A). 40.3 years (series B) and 42.5 years (series C) in 2066.

Series C projects the largest increase in the median age by 2066, with the median age of males increasing by 5.8 years to 41.8 years and the median age of females increasing by 6.1 years to 43.3 years. Series B projects the median age increasing to 39.5 years for males and 41.1 years for females. Series A projects the lowest median age, with males increasing to 38.5 years and females increasing to 39.9 years.


Age structure

The graph below presents the age structure for Western Australia for series A, B and C, compared with the 2017 age structure.

In all series, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will increase from 14% at 30 June 2017 to 20% (series A and B) and 22% (series C) in 2066. Over the same period, the number of children (those aged 0–14) is projected to decrease from 20% to 16% (series A), 18% (series B) and 19% (series C), while the working age population (those aged 15–65) is projected to decrease from 67% to between 61% (series A), and 62% (series B and C).

The population aged 85 and over made up 1.7% of Western Australia’s population in 2017. This is projected to increase to between 3.6% (series B) and 4.5% (series A).

Graph Image for Population proportion(a), Western Australia

Footnote(s): (a) The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066