3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2018 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 20/12/2018   
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MAIN FEATURES COMMENTARY


ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 30 JUNE 2018


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2018 was 24,992,400 people. This is an increase of 390,500 people since 30 June 2017 and 92,200 people since 31 March 2018.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 June 2018 was 1.6%.

Graph Image for Annual population growth rate, Australia (a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Annual growth rate calculated at the end of each quarter. (b) All data to 30 June 2016 is final. Estimates thereafter are preliminary.

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, June quarter 2018



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population is comprised of natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 June 2018 was higher from NOM (60.6%) than from natural increase (39.4%).

Graph Image for Components of annual population growth (a)(b), Australia

Footnote(s): (a) Annual components calculated at the end of each quarter. (b) For further information on each component of population change, see the Explanatory Notes.

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, June quarter 2018




Natural Increase

The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2018 was 153,800 people, an increase of 4.2%, or 6,200 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2017 (147,600 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 30 June 2018 (314,800 births) increased by 7,000 births from the year ended 30 June 2017 (307,800 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 30 June 2018 (161,000 deaths) increased by 800 deaths from the year ended 30 June 2017 (160,200 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 30 June 2018, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 236,700 people. This was 10.1% (26,600 people) lower than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 30 June 2017 (263,400 people).

NOM arrivals decreased by 2.7% (14,500 people) between the years ended 30 June 2017 (540,200 people) and 30 June 2018 (525,700 people).

NOM departures increased by 4.4% (12,200 people) between the years ended 30 June 2017 (276,800 people) and 30 June 2018 (289,000 people).

The preliminary NOM estimate for the June quarter 2018 (46,200 people) was 2.5% (1,100 people) lower than the June quarter 2017 (47,300 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary ERP for each state and territory at 30 June 2018 was as follows:
  • New South Wales 7,987,300;
  • Victoria 6,459,800;
  • Queensland 5,012,200;
  • South Australia 1,736,400;
  • Western Australia 2,595,900;
  • Tasmania 528,100;
  • Northern Territory 247,300; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 420,900.

Positive population growth occurred in most states and territories in the year ended 30 June 2018. Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory recorded the fastest growth rates of all states and territories at 2.2%. The Northern Territory recorded the only negative growth rate at 0.1%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three main components: natural increase, net overseas migration (NOM) and net interstate migration.

Although majority of states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2018, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 30 June 2018, natural increase was the major contributor to population change in Queensland and Western Australia. Net interstate migration loss was the largest component of population change in the Northern Territory. NOM was the major contributor to population change in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory.

Net interstate migration gains occurred in Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. All other states and territories recorded net interstate migration losses.


Natural Increase

Births

Compared with the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 30 June 2018 increased in half of the states and territories.

The largest percentage increase was recorded in New South Wales at 7.4%. This was followed by the Australian Capital Territory (1.6%), Queensland (0.9%) and Victoria (0.7%).

The most significant decrease was recorded in Western Australia at 2.7% followed by South Australia (2.4%), Tasmania (1.2%) and the Northern Territory (0.9%).

For more information, see table 10.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 30 June 2018 increased in most states and territories.

Queensland recorded the largest percentage increase at 3.0%. This was followed by Tasmania (2.9%), the Northern Territory (2.8%), the Australian Capital Territory (2.4%) and South Australia (1.8%).

Decreases were recorded in all remaining states, the largest being Western Australia at 1.9% followed by Victoria (0.5%) and New South Wales (0.2%).

For more information, see table 11.

Preliminary estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see Explanatory Notes 10-11).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive NOM for the year ending 30 June 2018. Compared with the previous year, NOM increased in half the states and territories, the largest being the Australian Capital Territory at 14.2% followed by Western Australia (12.4%), Tasmania (5.6%) and South Australia (3.8%).

The largest percentage decrease in NOM was recorded in the Northern Territory at 56.6%. This was followed by New South Wales (15.8%), Queensland (13.1%) and Victoria (7.8%). For more information, see table 13.

NOM arrivals

The number of NOM arrivals for the year ended 30 June 2018 increased in Tasmania (4.6%), the Australian Capital Territory (4.1%), South Australia (2.1%) and Victoria (0.3%).

The largest percentage decrease in NOM arrivals was recorded in the Northern Territory at 28.0%. This was followed by Western Australia (6.4%), New South Wales (4.8%) and Queensland (1.6%). For more information, see table 13.

NOM departures

Compared with the previous year, the number of NOM departures for the year ended 30 June 2018 increased in Victoria (11.0%), New South Wales (7.6%), Queensland (5.7%), Tasmania (3.7%) and South Australia (0.3%).

The largest percentage decrease was recorded in the Northern Territory at 17.6%. This was followed by Western Australia (12.6%) and the Australian Capital Territory (2.7%). For more information, see table 13.


Net Interstate Migration

In the year ended 30 June 2018, Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory recorded net interstate migration gains. Queensland had the highest net gain with 24,700 people, up from 17,800 people in the year ended 30 June 2017. This was followed by Victoria (14,300 people), Tasmania (2,400 people) and the Australian Capital Territory (600 people). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (21,700 people), Western Australia (11,300), South Australia (5,200 people) and the Northern Territory (3,800 people). For more information, see table 14.

Graph Image for Interstate migration, Arrivals, departures and net

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, June quarter 2018




INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

For the 12 Months ended 30 June 2018, Australia's population growth rate of 1.6% was above that of the world at 1.1%. Australia is growing at a faster rate than every selected country except for Papua New Guinea (2.0%). The Philippines was the next fastest growing country at 1.5% followed by Singapore (1.4%) and Malaysia (1.3%).

According to figures from the United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Australia's population ranked 54th highest in the world in 2018 and is projected to rank 56th by 2050. By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.7 billion people compared with 1.4 billion in China.

POPULATION, GROWTH RATE AND RANK(a)(b), Summary

ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
PROJECTED POPULATION
RANK
2017
2018
Growth Rate
2050
2018
2050
Selected Countries
million
million
%
million
no.
no.

Australia
25.0
25.0
1.6
37.0
54
56
Canada
37.0
37.0
0.9
45.0
38
46
China (excl. SARs and Taiwan)
1 410.0
1 415.0
0.4
1 364.0
1
2
France
65.0
65.0
0.4
71.0
22
28
Greece
11.0
11.0
-0.2
10.0
84
98
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
7.0
7.0
0.9
8.0
104
111
India
1 339.0
1 354.0
1.1
1 659.0
2
1
Indonesia
264.0
267.0
1.1
322.0
4
5
Italy
59.0
59.0
-0.1
55.0
23
36
Japan
127.0
127.0
-0.2
109.0
11
17
Korea (South)
51.0
51.0
0.4
50.0
27
41
Malaysia
32.0
32.0
1.3
42.0
45
50
New Zealand
5.0
5.0
0.9
6.0
126
126
Papua New Guinea
8.0
8.0
2.0
14.0
101
86
Philippines
105.0
107.0
1.5
151.0
13
13
Singapore
6.0
6.0
1.4
7.0
114
120
South Africa
57.0
57.0
1.2
73.0
25
27
Sweden
10.0
10.0
0.7
12.0
89
93
United Kingdom
66.0
67.0
0.6
75.0
21
26
United States of America
324.0
327.0
0.7
390.0
3
4
Vietnam
96.0
96.0
1.0
115.0
15
16
World
7 550.0
7 633.0
1.1
9 772.0
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Selected countries include major OECD countries, the world's most populous countries, Australia's closest Neighbours and trading partners.
(b) Selected country and world estimates and projections for 2017/2018 and 2050 are from United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision (medium variant projections).
Source: Australian estimates - this issue of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); Australian projections; Series B in Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0). Selected country and world estimates and projections - United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: the 2017 Revision, custom data acquired via website (medium variant projections).