3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2016 Quality Declaration 
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MAIN FEATURES COMMENTARY


ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 30 JUNE 2016


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2016 was 24,127,200 people. This is an increase of 337,800 people since 30 June 2015 and 78,600 people since 31 March 2016.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 June 2016 was 1.4%.

ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a)(b), Australia
Graph: ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a)(b), Australia



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 June 2016 was higher from NOM (53.9%) than from natural increase (46.1%).

COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a)(b), Australia
Graph: COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a)(b), Australia



Natural Increase

The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2016 was 155,700 people, an increase of 2.6%, or 3,900 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2015 (151,800 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 30 June 2016 (315,500 births) increased by 7,900 births from the year ended 30 June 2015 (307,700 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 30 June 2016 (159,900 deaths) increased by 4,000 deaths from the year ended 30 June 2015 (155,900 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 30 June 2016, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 182,200 people. This was 3.0% (5,300 people) higher than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 30 June 2015 (176,900 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 2.5% (11,700 people) between the years ended 30 June 2015 (471,000 people) and 30 June 2016 (482,700 people).

NOM departures increased by 2.2% (6,400 people) between the years ended 30 June 2015 (294,100 people) and 30 June 2016 (300,500 people).

The preliminary NOM estimate for the June quarter 2016 (31,400 people) was 4.4% (1,300 people) higher than the estimate for the June quarter 2015 (30,000 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary ERP for each state and territory at 30 June 2016 was as follows:
  • New South Wales 7,725,900;
  • Victoria 6,068,000;
  • Queensland 4,844,500;
  • South Australia 1,708,200;
  • Western Australia 2,617,200;
  • Tasmania 519,100;
  • Northern Territory 244,900; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 396,100.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2016. Victoria recorded the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.1%. The Northern Territory recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.2%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration (NOM) and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2016, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 30 June 2016, natural increase was the major component of population change in Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory. NOM was the major component of population change in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia. Net interstate migration losses were recorded in all states and territories except for Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania.


Natural Increase

Births

Compared with the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 30 June 2016 increased in all states and territories except for the Australian Capital Territory (down 2.8%), the Northern Territory (down 2.5%) and South Australia (down 0.9%).

The largest percentage increase was recorded in Victoria, increasing by 7.5% (5,700 births). This was followed by New South Wales (1.7%) and Western Australia (1.6%). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 30 June 2016 increased in all states and territories except the Northern Territory (down 4.7%) and South Australia (down 1.5%).

Victoria recorded the largest percentage increase at 6.3% (2,400 deaths). This was followed by Tasmania (5.4%). the Australian Capital Territory (4.0%), and Western Australia (3.3%). For more information, see table 14.

Preliminary estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 11-12 of the Explanatory Notes).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive NOM for the year ending 30 June 2016. Only Victoria (up 11.2%), New South Wales (up 3.7%) and Tasmania (up 1.2%) recorded an increase when compared with the previous year. All other states and territories recorded decreases in NOM when compared with the previous year. The largest percentage decrease in NOM was recorded in the Northern Territory at 63.8% (700 people). This was followed by the Australian Capital Territory which decreased by 39.0% (by 1,000 people), and South Australia which decreased by 14.1% (by 1,500 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

The number of NOM arrivals for the year ended 30 June 2016 increased in Victoria (up 6.6%), New South Wales (up 3.6%) and Queensland (up 2.2%). The largest percentage decreases in NOM arrivals were recorded in the Australian Capital Territory at 9.6% (800 people) and the Northern Territory at 8.9% (500 people). This was followed by South Australia at 6.6% (1,500 people), Western Australia 3.0% (1,600 people) and Tasmania 0.3% (100 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

Compared with the previous year, the number of NOM departures for the year ended 30 June 2016 increased in New South Wales (up 3.5%), Victoria (up 2.8%), Queensland (up 3.5%), the Northern Territory (up 3.9%) and the Australian Capital Territory (up 2.9%) . The largest percentage decrease was recorded in Western Australia at 3.5%. This was followed by Tasmania at 0.8%. and South Australia at 0.3%. For more information, see table 16.


Net Interstate Migration

In the year ended 30 June 2016, only Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania recorded net interstate migration gains. Victoria continued a recent trend of recording the highest net gain with 16,700 people, up from 10,200 people in the year ended 30 June 2015. This was followed by Queensland (11,600 people) and Tasmania (40 people). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (11,300 people), South Australia (6,400 people), Western Australia (7,700 people), the Northern Territory (2,700 people) and the Australian Capital Territory (200 people). For more information, see table 17.

Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and territories - year ending June 2016
Graph: Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and territories—year ending June 2016



INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

For the 12 months ended 30 June 2016, Australia's population growth rate of 1.4% was above that of the world at 1.2%. Australia is growing at a faster rate that New Zealand and the United States of America (both 0.7%0, the United Kingdom (0.6%) and Canada (1.0%). Some countries that experienced faster growth than Australia were the Philippines (1.6%), Singapore (1.8%) and Papua New Guinea (2.1%). According to figures from the United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Australia's population ranked 53rd highest in the world in 2015 (decreasing from 52nd in 2014) and is projected to rank 61st by 2050. By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.7 billion people compared with 1.35 billion in China.

POPULATION, GROWTH RATE AND RANK - Summary(a)

ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
PROJECTED POPULATION
RANK
2014(b)
2015(b)
Growth Rate
2050
2015
2050
Selected Countries
million
million
%
million
no.
no.

Australia
24
24
1.4
38
53
61
Canada
36
36
1.0
44
38
47
China (excl. SARs and Taiwan)
1 369
1 376
0.5
1 348
1
2
France
64
64
0.4
71
22
27
Greece
11
11
-0.4
10
81
102
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
7
7
0.8
8
103
111
India
1 295
1 311
1.2
1 705
2
1
Indonesia
254
258
1.2
322
4
5
Italy
60
60
-
57
23
33
Japan
127
127
-0.2
107
11
17
Korea (South)
50
50
0.4
51
27
39
Malaysia
30
30
1.4
41
44
54
New Zealand
5
5
0.7
6
125
127
Papua New Guinea
7
8
2.1
13
100
85
Philippines
99
101
1.6
148
12
13
Singapore
6
6
1.8
7
114
116
South Africa
54
54
1.0
66
24
29
Sweden
10
10
0.8
12
90
90
United Kingdom
64
65
0.6
75
21
24
United States of America
319
322
0.7
389
3
4
Viet Nam
92
93
1.1
113
14
16
World
7 266
7 349
1.2
9 725
-
-

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Selected countries include major OECD countries, the world's most populous countries, Australia's closest neighbours and trading partners.
(b) Selected country and world estimates and projections for 2014/2015 and 2050 are from United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (medium variant projections).
Source: Australian estimates - this issue of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); Australian projections; Series B in Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0). Selected country and world estimates and projections - United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: the 2015 Revision, custom data acquired via website (medium variant projections).