3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Dec 2017 Quality Declaration 
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MAIN FEATURES COMMENTARY


ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 31 DECEMBER 2017


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 31 December 2017 was 24,770,700 people. This is an increase of 388,000 people since 31 December 2016 and 68,700 people since 30 September 2017.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 31 December 2017 was 1.6%.


Graph Image for Annual population growth rate, Australia (a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Annual growth rate calculated at the end of each quarter. (b) All data to 30 June 2016 is final. Estimates thereafter are preliminary.

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, December quarter 2017


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population is comprised of natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 31 December 2017 was higher from NOM (62.0%) than from natural increase (38.0%).
Graph Image for Components of annual population growth (a)(b), Australia

Footnote(s): (a) Annual components calculated at the end of each quarter. (b) For further information on each component of population change, see the Explanatory Notes.

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, December quarter 2017


Natural Increase

The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 31 December 2017 was 147,500 people, an increase of 0.9%, or 1,300 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 31 December 2016 (146,300 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 31 December 2017 (308,500 births) increased by 4,300 births from the year ended 31 December 2016 (304,100 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 31 December 2017 (160,900 deaths) increased by 3,100 deaths from the year ended 31 December 2016 (157,900 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 31 December 2017, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 240,400 people. This was 1.4% (3,400 people) lower than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 31 December 2016 (243,800 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 1.9% (9,700 people) between the years ended 31 December 2016 (519,700 people) and 31 December 2017 (529,400 people).

NOM departures increased by 4.8% (13,100 people) between the years ended 31 December 2016 (275,800 people) and 31 December 2017 (288,900 people).

The preliminary NOM estimate for the December quarter 2017 (35,900 people) was 32.9% (17,700 people) lower than the December quarter 2016 (53,600 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary ERP for each state and territory at 31 December 2017 was as follows:
  • New South Wales 7,915,100;
  • Victoria 6,385,800;
  • Queensland 4,965,000;
  • South Australia 1,728,100;
  • Western Australia 2,584,800;
  • Tasmania 524,700;
  • Northern Territory 246,700; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 415,900.

Positive population growth occurred in all states and territories in the year ended 31 December 2017. Victoria recorded the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.3%. The Northern Territory recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.2%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three main components: natural increase, net overseas migration (NOM) and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 31 December 2017, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 31 December 2017, natural increase was the major contributor to population change in Queensland and Western Australia. NOM was the major contributor to population change in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. A net interstate migration loss was the largest component of population change in the Northern Territory.

Net interstate migration gains occurred in Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. All other states and territories recorded net interstate migration losses.


Natural Increase

Births

Compared with the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 31 December 2017 decreased in Tasmania (down 4.0%), South Australia (down 3.3%), Western Australia (3.0%), the Northern Territory (down 1.7%) and Queensland (down 0.8%).

The largest percentage increase was recorded in the Australian Capital Territory, increasing by 19.7%. This was followed by Victoria (7.4%) and New South Wales (0.2%). For more information, see table 10.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 31 December 2017 increased in all states and territories except Western Australia (down 3.1%) and New South Wales (down 0.6%).

The Australian Capital Territory recorded the largest percentage increase at 25.4%. This was followed by Queensland (6.8%), the Northern Territory (5.7%), South Australia (4.9%), Tasmania (4.7%), and Victoria (1.0%). For more information, see table 11

Preliminary estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see Explanatory Notes 10-11).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive NOM for the year ending 31 December 2017. Compared with the previous year, NOM increased in Western Australia (18.8%), the Australian Capital Territory (9.2%) and Victoria (2.2%).

The largest percentage decrease in NOM was recorded in the Northern Territory at 49.2%. This was followed by Queensland (9.5%), Tasmania (5.1%), New South Wales (3.4%) and South Australia (3.0%). For more information, see table 12.

NOM arrivals

The number of NOM arrivals for the year ended 31 December 2017 increased in Victoria (5.3%), New South Wales (2.8%) and Queensland (1.2%).

The largest percentage decrease in NOM arrivals was recorded in the Northern Territory at 15.3% (1,000 people). This was followed by Western Australia (6.0%), South Australia (1.3%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.9%) and Tasmania (0.5%). For more information, see table 12.

NOM departures

Compared with the previous year, the number of NOM departures for the year ended 31 December 2017 increased in New South Wales (9.3%), Victoria (9.1%), Queensland (7.7%), Tasmania (4.0%) and South Australia (0.4%).

The largest percentage decrease was recorded in Western Australia at 13.7%. This was followed by the Australian Capital Territory (7.1%) and the Northern Territory (0.3%). For more information, see table 12.


Net Interstate Migration

In the year ended 31 December 2017, Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory recorded net interstate migration gains. Queensland had the highest net gain with 22,500 people, up from 15,000 people in the year ended 31 December 2016. This was followed by Victoria (16,400 people), Tasmania (1,900 people) and the Australian Capital Territory (700 people). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (19,300 people), Western Australia (12,800), South Australia (6,100 people) and the Northern Territory (3,300 people). For more information, see table 13.


Graph Image for Interstate migration, Arrivals, departures and net

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, December quarter 2017


FIVE YEARS OF POPULATION CHANGE - THE RECENT INTERCENSAL PERIOD


FINAL 2016 CENSUS REBASED POPULATION ESTIMATES

After each Census of Population and Housing (Census), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) uses the new information to update the estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia and its states and territories. In this issue, the ABS has used the 2016 Census to produce final rebased estimates of the resident population. For more information on the rebasing process, see the feature article Final Rebasing of Australia's population estimates using the 2016 Census.


POPULATION AND GROWTH (2011 TO 2016)

The final rebased ERP of Australia at 30 June 2016 was 24,190,900 persons, an increase over the most recent intercensal period (2011-2016) of 1,850,900. During this five-year period, the population grew by 8.3% compared with 9.2% for the previous intercensal period (2006-2011) where growth was 1,889,100.

At 30 June 2016, the final rebased ERP for the states and territories were as follows;
  • New South Wales 7,732,900;
  • Victoria 6,173,200;
  • Queensland 4,845,200;
  • South Australia 1,712,800;
  • Western Australia 2,556,000;
  • Tasmania 517,500;
  • Northern Territory 245,700; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 403,100.

Over the last five years (2011-2016), all states and territories experienced population growth. Victoria experienced the fastest growth, increasing by 11.5%. This was followed by the Australian Capital Territory (9.5%), Western Australia (8.6%), Queensland (8.2%), New South Wales (7.1%), the Northern Territory (6.2%), South Australia (4.5%) and then Tasmania with the slowest growth (1.2%).


Graph Image for Total population growth, Intercensal periods - 2006 to 2016

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, December quarter 2017



The national average annual growth rate for the five-year period from June 2011 to June 2016 was 1.6%. This was higher than the 20-year average (1996-2016) of 1.4% and lower than the previous five-year average (2006-2011) of 1.8%.

Over the recent intercensal period, the average annual growth rates for the states and territories from highest to lowest were as follows; Victoria 2.2%, the Australian Capital Territory 1.8%, Western Australia 1.7%, Queensland 1.6%, New South Wales 1.4%, the Northern Territory 1.2%, South Australia 0.9% and Tasmania 0.2%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

During the recent intercensal period, natural increase contributed 783,900 persons to Australia's total population growth, compared to 780,300 in the previous intercensal period. Net overseas migration (NOM), on the other hand, contributed 1,040,300 persons, compared to 1,186,400 in the previous intercensal period.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth over the previous five-year period, the proportion attributed to each component varied considerably between the states and territories.


Graph Image for Population components, Proportion of total growth (a) - 5 years ended 30 June 2016

Footnote(s): (a) Each population component as a proportion of a state's or territories population growth for 5 years ended 30 June 2016. Total growth includes intercensal difference.

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, December quarter 2017


Natural increase

For the five-year period 2011 to 2016 natural increase was the main contributor to population growth for Queensland, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory.

Births

The number of births in Australia during the recent intercensal period (1,543,600) was 3.8% higher than the previous intercensal period (1,487,600). Births during this period increased in all states and territories, except for New South Wales (down 0.1%) and Tasmania (down 10.0%). The largest increase occurred in the Australian Capital Territory (14.1%), followed by Western Australia (12.4%), Victoria (8.1%), the Northern Territory (2.9%), South Australia (2.3%) and Queensland (1.8%).

Deaths

The number of deaths recorded in Australia during the recent intercensal period (759,700) was 7.4% higher than the previous intercensal period (707,300). Deaths during this period increased in all states and territories, with the largest increase occurring in the Northern Territory (11.1%). This was followed by the Australian Capital Territory (10.1%), Western Australia (9.9%), Queensland (8.5%), New South Wales (7.6%), Tasmania (6.5%), Victoria (6.0%) and South Australia (5.3%).


Net overseas migration

For the five-year period of 2011 to 2016, NOM was the main contributor to population growth for New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania.

NOM caused major changes in growth rates over the five-year period. At the start of the intercensal period (September 2011), Australia's annual growth rate was 1.5%. This annual growth rate increased to a peak of 1.8% in 2012 and then decreased to a low of 1.4% in 2015. At the end of the intercensal period (June 2016), the annual growth rate increased to 1.6%.

All states and territories recorded positive NOM in the recent intercensal period. The Northern Territory (up 78.1%), the Australian Capital Territory (up 27.9%) and Tasmania (up 2.0%) were the only states or territories where NOM increased compared with the previous intercensal period. All other states and territories recorded a decrease, with the largest decrease being recorded in Queensland (30.0%). This was followed by Western Australia (24.6%), South Australia (18.9%), New South Wales (4.3%) and Victoria (4.1%).


Net interstate migration

Final estimates show there were 1,777,100 interstate movements during the past five years, which is 25,800 more than the previous intercensal period (1,751,300 movements). As illustrated in the previous graph, net interstate migration was not the major contributor to population growth in any state or territory.

Between June 2011 and June 2016, Victoria recorded the highest yearly gain in interstate migration, increasing its population by 47,300 persons in the process. This was followed by Queensland (45,800) and the Australian Capital Territory (800).

The remaining state and territories lost population through interstate migration over the same five-year period, with New South Wales losing the most at 57,800, followed by South Australia (23,700), the Northern Territory (8,000), Tasmania (2,800) and Western Australia (1,700).


Graph Image for Interstate migration, Arrivals, departures and net - 5 years ended 30 June 2016

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, December quarter 2017




20 YEARS OF POPULATION CHANGE


POPULATION AND GROWTH (1996-2016)

Australia's population has grown by 6 million people over the 20-year period from 1996 to 2016, increasing from 18.2 million people in 1996 to 24.2 million in 2016. At the end of June 1996, Australia's annual growth rate was 1.2%. This annual growth rate decreased to a low of 1.0% in December 1997 and increased to a peak of 2.2% in December 2008. At the end of June 2016, the annual growth rate was 1.6%. The resulting 20 year average annual growth rate was 1.4%.

Over the past 20 years (1996-2016), all states and territories experienced population growth. Queensland experienced the fastest growth, increasing 46.7%. This was followed by Western Australia (44.6%), Victoria (36.1%), the Northern Territory (33.1%), the Australian Capital Territory (30.2%), New South Wales (25.2%), South Australia (16.6%) and then Tasmania with the smallest growth (8.8%).


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

Natural increase contributed 2.8 million people to Australia's total population growth over the 20-year period (1996-2016). This equates to 47% of total growth for this period. Net overseas migration contributed 56% to total population growth which constituted 3.3 million persons. Intercensal difference contributed -3% to total population growth. The proportion attributed to each component varied considerably between the states and territories.

Graph Image for Population components, Proportion of total growth (a) - 20 years ended 30 June 2016

Footnote(s): (a) Each component as a proportion of a state's or territories population growth for 20 years ended 30 June 2016. Total growth includes intercensal difference.

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, December quarter 2017

For the 20-year period 1996 to 2016, natural increase was the main component of population growth for Tasmania (99%), the Northern Territory (93%) and the Australian Capital Territory (67%). NOM was the primary component of population growth in New South Wales (71%), Victoria (55%), Queensland (40%), South Australia (71%) and Western Australia (60%). Net interstate migration was not the major contributor to population change in any state or territory.

Queensland recorded the highest gain in interstate migration, increasing its population by 368,900 persons in the process. The only other states or territories to record a net interstate migration gain was Victoria (53,500) and Western Australia (28,400). All remaining states and territories lost population through interstate migration over the same 20 year period, with New South Wales losing the most at 353,600 persons.