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3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2031 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/06/2010   
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VICTORIA

Third largest increase in households

Victorian households are projected to increase by between 860,100 and 937,300 households (or 45% to 49%), from 1.9 million in 2006 to between 2.8 and 2.9 million in 2031. The numeric increase in the number of households accounts for 23% of Australia's total household growth between 2006 and 2031, making Victoria the third largest contributor to household growth in Australia, following Queensland (28%) and New South Wales (26%).

Lone person households are projected to be the fastest growing household type, increasing by between 60% and 85%, from 464,600 households in 2006 to reach between 741,000 and 860,300 households in 2031. However, family households are projected to have the greatest numeric increase, increasing by between 516,400 and 561,800 households (or 37% to 40%), from 1.4 million in 2006 to between 1.9 and 2.0 million in 2031.

As a result of these changes, the proportion of lone person households is projected to increase from 24% of all households in Victoria in 2006 to between 27% and 30% in 2031, at the expense of family households which are projected to decrease from 72% in 2006 to between 67% and 70% in 2031. Group households are projected to continue to account for 3% to 4% of all Victorian households.

4.6 Projected number of households, Household type - Victoria

As at 30 June
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Household type
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

SERIES I

Family households
1 389.6
1 505.4
1 624.4
1 741.5
1 850.9
1 951.4
Group households
74.4
80.7
85.7
89.0
92.1
96.2
Lone person households
464.6
513.6
566.4
623.0
682.1
741.0
Total
1 928.6
2 099.7
2 276.4
2 453.5
2 625.0
2 788.7

SERIES II

Family households
1 389.6
1 493.3
1 606.5
1 721.9
1 833.0
1 935.1
Group households
74.4
82.7
88.4
92.1
95.0
99.2
Lone person households
464.6
537.2
602.3
665.0
724.4
784.4
Total
1 928.6
2 113.1
2 297.3
2 478.9
2 652.4
2 818.7

SERIES III

Family households
1 389.6
1 493.3
1 600.9
1 708.6
1 811.2
1 906.1
Group households
74.4
82.7
89.0
93.0
95.9
99.6
Lone person households
464.6
537.2
613.9
693.8
776.1
860.3
Total
1 928.6
2 113.1
2 303.8
2 495.4
2 683.2
2 866.0




Average household size

The average household size for Victoria is projected to decrease from 2.6 people per household in 2006 to between 2.4 and 2.5 in 2031. This decline is the same as that projected for Australia.


Growth in number of families

The number of families in Victoria is projected to increase by between 37% and 40% between 2006 and 2031, from 1.4 million to between 1.9 and 2.0 million families. This growth is slower than that projected for Australia (between 40% and 43%).

In Victoria, the number of couple families without children is projected to outnumber couple families with children from 2016 (in Series II) or 2015 (in Series III) onwards. For Australia, this change is projected to occur two years earlier (from 2014 or 2013 respectively).

One-parent families represented 16% of all Victorian families in 2006, with female one-parent families accounting for 13% and male one-parent families accounting for 3% of all families. One-parent families are projected to increase from 219,800 in 2006 to between 306,000 and 380,800 in 2031. This represents growth of between 39% and 73% over the period, similar to that projected for Australia overall (between 40% and 77%). By 2031, one-parent families are projected to account for between 15% and 20% of all families in Victoria, with approximately five female lone parents for every one lone male parent, the same ratio as in 2006.

4.7 Projected families, Family type - Victoria - Series II
Graph: 4.7 Projected families, Family type - Victoria - Series II

4.8 Projected number of families, Family type - Victoria

As at 30 June
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Family type
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

SERIES I

Couple families with children
655.3
695.9
736.5
778.1
818.3
855.5
Couple families without children
509.9
567.9
629.8
688.6
740.1
785.3
One-parent families
219.8
236.6
253.2
270.3
288.0
306.0
Male parent
35.9
39.0
41.9
44.8
47.9
51.1
Female parent
183.9
197.6
211.3
225.4
240.1
254.9
Other families
27.4
29.8
31.8
33.4
35.2
37.2
Total
1 412.4
1 530.2
1 651.2
1 770.4
1 881.7
1 984.1

SERIES II

Couple families with children
655.3
649.9
664.3
690.5
728.0
762.8
Couple families without children
509.9
590.0
665.3
733.7
789.1
837.1
One-parent families
219.8
249.3
273.0
294.5
313.7
333.4
Male parent
35.9
40.2
44.1
47.5
50.8
54.2
Female parent
183.9
209.0
229.0
247.0
263.0
279.2
Other families
27.4
28.7
30.5
31.7
32.8
34.2
Total
1 412.4
1 517.8
1 633.1
1 750.4
1 863.6
1 967.5

SERIES III

Couple families with children
655.3
649.9
641.3
632.2
622.1
609.2
Couple families without children
509.9
590.0
675.8
760.8
839.2
909.7
One-parent families
219.8
249.3
279.6
311.2
345.0
380.8
Male parent
35.9
40.2
44.8
49.5
54.5
59.7
Female parent
183.9
209.0
234.7
261.7
290.5
321.0
Other families
27.4
28.7
30.8
32.7
35.0
38.3
Total
1 412.4
1 517.8
1 627.4
1 736.9
1 841.3
1 937.9




Living arrangements in Victoria

4.9 Projected number of persons, Living arrangement - Victoria

As at 30 June
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Living arrangement
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

SERIES I

Family households
Couple families with children
Husband, wife or partner
1 310.7
1 391.7
1 473.0
1 556.1
1 636.7
1 711.1
Child
1 343.2
1 411.0
1 470.8
1 533.3
1 596.8
1 653.3
Other related individual
24.7
27.5
30.5
33.7
37.3
40.9
Couple families without children
Husband, wife or partner
1 019.8
1 135.8
1 259.5
1 377.2
1 480.3
1 570.6
Other related individual
15.3
17.1
18.7
20.2
22.1
24.5
One-parent families
Male parent
35.9
39.0
41.9
44.8
47.9
51.1
Female parent
183.9
197.6
211.3
225.4
240.1
254.9
Child
356.8
374.1
389.8
406.8
424.3
440.2
Other related individual
15.7
17.3
18.9
20.5
22.3
24.0
Other families
Related person living in an other family
57.7
62.8
67.0
70.5
74.2
78.5
Total(a)
4 406.5
4 719.6
5 029.2
5 338.2
5 633.4
5 902.8
Group households
Group household member
175.3
190.3
201.9
210.0
217.2
227.1
Lone person households
Male lone person
205.5
224.7
244.4
264.4
284.2
303.4
Female lone person
259.1
289.0
321.9
358.5
397.8
437.6
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling
80.2
92.3
103.2
114.2
129.6
149.9
Total
5 126.5
5 515.8
5 900.8
6 285.4
6 662.2
7 020.8

SERIES II

Family households
Couple families with children
Husband, wife or partner
1 310.7
1 299.8
1 328.5
1 381.0
1 456.0
1 525.6
Child
1 343.2
1 393.9
1 443.5
1 499.6
1 561.4
1 616.2
Other related individual
24.7
19.6
18.5
18.8
20.5
22.3
Couple families without children
Husband, wife or partner
1 019.8
1 180.0
1 330.6
1 467.5
1 578.2
1 674.1
Other related individual
15.3
15.8
16.4
17.1
18.5
20.2
One-parent families
Male parent
35.9
40.2
44.1
47.5
50.8
54.2
Female parent
183.9
209.0
229.0
247.0
263.0
279.2
Child
356.8
408.3
443.8
473.1
493.5
512.0
Other related individual
15.7
17.9
19.8
21.7
23.5
25.3
Other families
Related person living in an other family
57.7
60.6
64.3
66.8
69.1
72.3
Total(a)
4 406.5
4 694.0
4 991.4
5 295.5
5 591.7
5 861.0
Group households
Group household member
175.3
194.8
208.4
217.0
224.0
234.0
Lone person households
Male lone person
205.5
240.6
269.8
295.7
317.1
338.0
Female lone person
259.1
296.6
332.5
369.3
407.3
446.4
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling
80.2
89.8
98.6
107.8
122.2
141.3
Total
5 126.5
5 515.8
5 900.8
6 285.4
6 662.2
7 020.8

SERIES III

Family households
Couple families with children
Husband, wife or partner
1 310.7
1 299.8
1 282.6
1 264.5
1 244.1
1 218.4
Child
1 343.2
1 393.9
1 432.8
1 469.7
1 501.8
1 522.2
Other related individual
24.7
19.6
16.0
13.4
11.7
10.6
Couple families without children
Husband, wife or partner
1 019.8
1 180.0
1 351.6
1 521.6
1 678.5
1 819.4
Other related individual
15.3
15.8
16.0
16.2
17.0
18.2
One-parent families
Male parent
35.9
40.2
44.8
49.5
54.5
59.7
Female parent
183.9
209.0
234.7
261.7
290.5
321.0
Child
356.8
408.3
462.4
522.9
588.9
657.0
Other related individual
15.7
17.9
20.1
22.4
24.9
27.3
Other families
Related person living in an other family
57.7
60.6
64.9
69.0
74.0
80.8
Total(a)
4 406.5
4 694.0
4 980.5
5 270.3
5 550.3
5 805.3
Group households
Group household member
175.3
194.8
209.8
219.3
226.1
235.0
Lone person households
Male lone person
205.5
240.6
278.1
317.3
357.7
399.0
Female lone person
259.1
296.6
335.8
376.6
418.4
461.3
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling
80.2
89.8
96.6
101.9
109.7
120.2
Total
5 126.5
5 515.8
5 900.8
6 285.4
6 662.2
7 020.8

(a) Includes unrelated individuals in family households.






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