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3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2031 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/06/2010   
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Contents >> Chapter 4 Projection results, States and Territories >> STATE AND TERRITORY PROJECTIONS

STATE AND TERRITORY PROJECTIONS

Increases in households in all states and territories

Between 2006 and 2031, household numbers are projected to increase in all states and territories, with the largest increases projected to occur in the most populous states. Queensland is projected to experience the largest increase over the period, increasing by between 1.0 to 1.1 million households. New South Wales is projected to gain 943,400 to 1.0 million households while Victoria is projected to gain 860,100 to 937,300 households.

Growth in the number of households is naturally related to growth in population. Those states and territories projected to experience high population growth over the next 25 years are therefore also projected to experience high growth in numbers of households, while states and territories projected to have slower population growth are projected to have slower increases in households. Household growth is therefore projected to vary markedly between the states and territories, ranging from increases of between 21% and 25% for Tasmania to between 68% and 75% for Queensland.

In all states and territories, lone person households are projected to be the fastest growing household type between 2006 and 2031, although family households will remain the most common household type.

4.1 Projected number of households

2006

2031

Increase, 2006-2031

Series I
Series II
Series III
Series I
Series II
Series III
Capital city/balance of state/territory
'000
'000
'000
'000
%
%
%

Sydney
1 572.1
2 216.4
2 233.1
2 257.1
41
42
44
Balance of NSW
975.9
1 275.1
1 294.4
1 324.4
31
33
36
Total NSW
2 548.1
3 491.5
3 527.5
3 581.5
37
38
41
Melbourne
1 391.9
2 091.8
2 111.6
2 140.6
50
52
54
Balance of Vic.
536.7
696.9
707.1
725.4
30
32
35
Total Vic.
1 928.6
2 788.7
2 818.7
2 866.0
45
46
49
Brisbane
671.6
1 115.1
1 131.0
1 157.1
66
68
72
Balance of Qld
841.5
1 429.6
1 450.9
1 487.8
70
72
77
Total Qld
1 513.0
2 544.7
2 582.0
2 644.9
68
71
75
Adelaide
459.5
596.8
606.1
622.2
30
32
35
Balance of SA
167.1
219.5
222.2
226.7
31
33
36
Total SA
626.5
816.3
828.3
848.9
30
32
35
Perth
578.3
977.5
988.0
1 004.6
69
71
74
Balance of WA
198.0
310.6
314.3
320.1
57
59
62
Total WA
776.3
1 288.1
1 302.3
1 324.6
66
68
71
Hobart
82.2
105.2
106.2
107.6
28
29
31
Balance of Tas.
113.9
132.7
134.5
137.3
16
18
21
Total Tas.
196.1
237.9
240.7
244.9
21
23
25
Darwin
40.1
65.1
65.5
64.5
62
63
61
Balance of NT
24.2
33.5
33.9
34.6
38
40
43
Total NT
64.4
98.5
99.4
99.1
53
54
54
Total ACT
126.5
174.8
176.8
178.4
38
40
41
Total capital cities(a)
4 922.1
7 342.7
7 418.4
7 531.9
49
51
53
Total balance of state(b)
2 858.1
4 098.9
4 158.1
4 257.0
43
45
49
Total Aust.(b)
7 780.2
11 441.6
11 576.5
11 789.0
47
49
52

(a) Includes Australian Capital Territory.
(b) Includes Other Territories.



Capital city and balance of state/territory households

In 2006, around two-thirds (63%) of all households in Australia were located in a capital city. Little or no change is projected in this proportion over the projection period, with capital cities accounting for 64% of all households in Australia in 2031.

With the exception of Queensland and South Australia, the capital cities in each state and territory are projected to experience higher rates of growth than the corresponding balances of state/territory, reflecting the higher levels of population growth projected for capital cities over the next 25 years. The number of households in the balance of Queensland (that is, Queensland excluding the capital city Statistical Division of Brisbane) is projected to increase by between 70% and 77% between 2006 and 2031, while Brisbane is projected to increase by between 66% and 72%. In contrast, the balance of Tasmania is projected to experience the lowest percentage increase in the number of households over the 25-year period, increasing by between 16% and 21%. The number of households in Hobart is projected to increase by between 28% and 31% over the same period.

Melbourne is projected to record the greatest numeric increase in households of all capital cities and balances of state/territory over the projection period, with an extra 699,800 (Series I) to 748,700 (Series III) households by 2031, reaching 2.1 million households. Sydney is projected to record the second largest increase, increasing by 644,300 (Series I) to 684,900 (Series III) households, resulting in 2.2 to 2.3 million households by 2031. The greater increase in Melbourne is mainly due to higher projected population growth for Melbourne (43%) compared to Sydney (33%) over the projection period. The third largest increase in households is projected for the balance of Queensland, increasing by between 588,100 (Series I) and 646,300 (Series III) households to reach 1.4 to 1.5 million households in 2031.





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