1 CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE - A feature article, INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENTS - 2009-10 is included in this issue.
Annual seasonal adjustment reanalysis: The seasonally adjusted and trend series have been updated following the annual review of the seasonal adjustment process. This review provides an opportunity to confirm the extent to which movements are affected by seasonal or irregular influences. As a result, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of a number of series have been revised.
Unreliable seasonal adjustment: In using the seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised due to the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern for the following short-term resident departure series: Other North-East Asia, United Arab Emirates and French Polynesia. These series will be revised during the next annual seasonal adjustment reanalysis.
Short-term movements are based on a sample and are subject to sampling error. See paragraphs 10 and 11 of the Explanatory Notes and the Standard Errors section from the Explanatory Notes tab of Overseas Arrivals and Departures
(cat. no. 3401.0) for more detail.
Occasionally situations occur that necessitate breaks being applied to the trend series. These breaks are necessary because of a change in the underlying level of the series. While the breaks apply to an individual country (e.g. Indonesia) a consequence is that breaks are also applied to the regional total series (e.g. Total South-East Asia) and the total series. Breaks currently included in the trend series are as follows:
- October 2002; STRD - Indonesia, Total South-East Asia and Total
- Effect on trend and reason - Decrease in STRD movements; Bali Bombing of 12 October 2002
- December 2003; STRD - Indonesia, Total South-East Asia and Total
- Effect on trend and reason - Increase in STRD movements; Return to levels experienced prior to the Bali Bombing of 12 October 2002
- October 2005; STRD - Indonesia, Total South-East Asia and Total
- Effect on trend and reason - Decrease in STRD movements; Bali Bombing of 1 October 2005
- December 2006; STRD - Indonesia, Total South-East Asia and Total
- Effect on trend and reason - Increase in STRD movements; Return to levels closer to, but still lower than, those experienced prior to the Bali Bombing of 1 October 2005.
- April 2009; STRD - All countries, Total region and Total in the following regions: Oceania and Antarctica, North-West Europe, South-East Asia, North-East Asia, Southern and Central Asia, Americas and Sub-Saharan Africa
- Effect on trend and reason - Increase in STRD movements; Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and initiatives introduced to combat the GFC (e.g. Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and February 2009), cut-price air fares and travel packages, and the high Australian dollar).
- Comments - Breaks in series were clearly observed for Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Further smaller breaks were applied to the remaining specified country series.
- July 2009; STRD - Fiji, Total Oceania and Antarctica and Total
- Effect on trend and reason - Increase in STRD movements; Increased flights, cut-price fares and the high Australian dollar.
- Comments - The break in series for Fiji is illustrated in specific commentary, tables and graphs on Fiji and Total Oceania and Antarctica. However, although Fiji is included in the total series its impact is minimal and not observable amongst other volatility during this time. Therefore, it has not been illustrated in commentary, tables and graphs at this level.
For additional notes on the data please see the Notes section of the Key Figures of Overseas Arrivals and Departures
(cat. no. 3401.0).