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1364.0.15.003 - Modellers' Database, Mar 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/07/2006   
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  • Time Series Spreadsheet (I-Note)

To our subscribers:

The National Income Forecasting (NIF) Model was jointly developed in the early 1970's by the Treasury and the then Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics (forerunner of the Australian Bureau of Statistics). Over the subsequent years a number of versions of NIF were released following improvements to the underlying model. 1988 saw the final release of the NIF model.

The research on the present Treasury Model (TRYM) model began in 1990, partly in response to feedback on the NIF model. However, it was also motivated by a desire for a smaller, more transparent model than NIF88 with a greater focus on internal consistency. With TRYM replacing the NIF model most of the 500 NIF series became redundant. However, a smaller number of series (around 190) were retained as they were not covered within the TRYM model or were seen by users as having some additional value, at that time.

The introduction of new National Account benchmarks in the September quarter 2005 highlighted quality issues with some of the NIF series in the Modellers' Database. This resulted in a wider review of all NIF series. The review is investigating the models, assumptions and input data currently being used to create the NIF series. Currently, the NIF data is being estimated in the absence of any recognised statistical or conceptual framework. This creates difficulties in defining what the scope of certain series should be. Without a clear scope estimating reliable data is quite difficult. Many of the NIF series are still referring to concepts relevant when the model was originally developed in the 1970's. For example, many of the NIF series are still on the System of National Accounts 1968 (SNA68) basis rather than the System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA93) basis currently used.

Pending the outcome of this review, the publication of a small number of series has been suspended. The June 2006 release of the Modellers' Database will see a revised set of NIF series being published.

The following NIF Series will not have any data available for this quarter:

TABLE 2. NIF Demand And Expenditure - Seasonally Adjusted ($ million)
Statistical Discrepancy (cvm)

TABLE 3. NIF Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation - Seasonally Adjusted ($ million)
Plant & Equipment : Corporate
Plant & Equipment : Unincorporated

TABLE 4. NIF Depreciation & Deductions - Original ($ million)
Corporate Trading Enterprises

TABLE 5. NIF Interest Payments - Seasonally Adjusted ($ million)
Government : Total
Unincorporated Trading Enterprises
Corporate Trading Enterprises (Seasonally Adjusted)
Persons : Total excl dwellings (Seasonally Adjusted)

TABLE 7. NIF Stocks Of Physical And Financial Assets - Seasonally Adjusted ($ million)
Total Capital Stock : Corporate
Other Building & Structures : Corporate
Plant & Equipment : Corporate
Corporate Sector Debt Capital (Original)
Total capital stock : Corporate (cvm)
Motor Vehicles (cvm)
Other Buuilding & Structures : Total (cvm)
Household Durables (cvm)
Plant & Equipment : Total (cvm)

TABLE 14. NIF Ratios - Seasonally Adjusted
Incomes : Dividends paid Overseas to YDPC$
Building & Construction to Plant & Equipment by pfe

TABLE 15. NIF Taxes & Transfers - Seasonally Adjusted ($ million)
Net Income Taxes Paid : Persons
Payroll Tax : Total
Sales Tax
Excise Duties
Other Indirect Taxes: Commonwealth Government
Weighted Average Unemployment Benefit (original)

TABLE 16. NIF Incomes - Seasonally Adjusted ($ million)
Dwellings Rent Received by Persons
Transfers to Overseas

TABLE 17. NIF Budget Sector - Seasonally Adjusted ($ million)
Company Tax Payments
Total Receipts
Subsidies

TABLE 19. NIF Miscellaneous - Seasonally Adjusted
Wage Share of GDP at Factor Cost (ratio)

If you have any concerns regarding the revised NIF model this coming June quarter 2006, please email me at valentin.valdez@abs.gov.au.


Valentin M. Valdez
Database Manager
Analytical Services Branch


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