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3101.0.55.001 - Information Paper: Rebasing Population Estimates, Australia, 2011, Aug 2011  
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/09/2011  First Issue
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RANGE OF POPULATION ESTIMATES TO BE COMPILED

The following section provides detailed plans for the range of population estimates to be compiled, the associated demographic product releases and their release dates.

Preliminary total population estimates by National, State and Territory

Preliminary rebased population estimates for 30 June 2011, and preliminary estimates for 31 December 2011 based on the 2011 Census will be released on 20 June 2012 in Australian Demographic Statistics, December quarter 2011 (cat. no. 3101.0). This release is scheduled at this time so as to meet the requirements for the 31 December 2011 population estimates by state and territory under the Local Government (Financial Assistance) Act 1995.


As set out in Table 2, there is a cyclical schedule for revising births, deaths, NOM and hence population estimates on a financial year basis. For example, the 2010-11 financial year estimates, estimates of births and deaths for each quarter, and NOM for the September and December quarters of 2010 would normally be released in September 2012, with revised NOM estimates for March and June quarters of 2011 released in March 2013. If this revision cycle schedule were maintained during the Census rebasing period, population estimates for the intercensal period from September quarter 2006 to March quarter 2011 would be revised four times from June 2012 to June 2013. Accordingly, the usual annual revisions of births, deaths and NOM for September quarter 2010 to June quarter 2011 (i.e. the 2010-11 financial year) will be postponed for release with final rebased estimates issued in June 2013.

Final total population estimates by National, State and Territory

Final estimates from September 2006 to June 2011 are proposed to be released in June 2013 in Australian Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2012 (cat. no. 3101.0) including finalised components of population growth over the period. The age-sex breakdown will be released at the same time. Population estimates by age and sex are now released in Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

Sub-state total population estimates

With the move to the new Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) from June 2011 onwards, sub-state population estimates will be available on both ASGS and ASGC geographies for 30 June 2011. While standard output will be at the SA2 and Local Government Area (LGA) levels, SA1 level estimates (apportioned from SA2 level estimates) for 30 June 2011 will also be available on request for use to form population estimates for other geographic area aggregations.

Preliminary rebased estimates will be released in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2001-11 (cat. no. 3218.0) on 31 July 2012 and will include a ten year time series (2001-2011) of total population estimates on ASGC 2011. In the same product, the first set of estimates under the new ASGS (SA2 level and above) will be available. This will comprise a ten year time series based on the ASGS (which includes 2011 LGAs). Preliminary population estimates for Remoteness Areas will also be included. However, because the 2011 Remoteness Structure will not be released until late 2012, estimates will be based on ASGC 2006 Remoteness Areas. All data will be released in Excel and SuperTable formats. Commentary in this product will focus on the SA2 level.

Preliminary sub-state population estimates for 30 June 2012 will be released in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2011-12 (cat. no. 3218.0) in March 2013. Estimates will be based on the ASGS only, including the ASGS Remoteness Structure and LGAs based on 2012 boundaries. A time series back to 2006 will also be included. This is the first time that population estimates for Significant Urban Areas will be released in an Excel spreadsheet. In addition, Major Population Regions published in Table 5 of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) will use the new Significant Urban Areas. For capital cities, the new Greater Capital Cities Statistical Area will be used. Stakeholders will be consulted on this change (see Table 5 below).

The following table shows the timing of product releases for sub-state population estimates over the next few years.

TABLE 3. RELEASE SCHEDULE FOR SUB-STATE ERPs - TOTALS
Release date Version
ASGS(a)
ASGC(b)
Product (cat. no. 3218.0)
30 March 2012
  • Preliminary 2011
  • Revised 2007-2010
  • Final 2001-2006
Y
N
Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2010-11
July 2012
  • Rebased 2007-2011
  • Final 2001-2006
N
N
Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2001-2011
March 2013
  • Preliminary 2012
  • Rebased 2007-2011
  • Final 2002-2006
N
Y
Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2011-12
August 2013
  • Final 2001-2011 (Excel & SuperTable datacubes only)
N
N
Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2001-2011
March 2014
  • Preliminary 2013
  • Revised 2012
  • Final 2003-2011
N
Y
Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2012-13

(a) The geographical levels released under ASGS include: SA2, SA3, SA4, GCCSA, LGA and Remoteness Area
(b) The geographical levels released under ASGC include: SLA, LGA, SD, SSD, Statistical District and Remoteness Area


Final estimates on both ASGC and ASGS will be released at the end of August 2013, based on further updated information from the 2011 Census. There will be no new product for this release. Instead, Excel and SuperTable datacubes containing the time series on both old and new geographies (including LGAs and Remoteness Areas) will be added under the downloads tab in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2001-2011 (cat. no. 3218.0). This will be the last time population estimates at the SLA level will be prepared and released. Population estimates by Remoteness Structure as defined in the ASGS will be provided for the first time.

From March 2013 onwards, the release cycle of estimates for SA2s and above will follow the same release schedule of SLAs in the past. That is, preliminary estimates will be released nine months after the reference date, revised estimates the following year and rebased and final estimates after the following Census.

For more information on release plans for sub-state and regional population estimates, including estimates by age and sex and estimates for SA1s, see the Information Paper Population Estimates Under Australia's New Statistical Geography (cat. no. 3219.0.55.001).

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australian population estimates

Experience has shown that additional analysis and quality assurance processes are required for the compilation of estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population for sub-national geographies. Further, in the past, release of more than one set of population estimates for the same reference period has led to user confusion over which set of estimates to use for analysis and reporting. Following discussion with key stakeholders and data users, the ABS has decided not to release a preliminary set of 2011 Census-based estimates for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population and the non-Indigenous population. Accordingly, the first release will be a set of National population estimates in June 2013 to be supplemented by state and territory, remoteness areas and other geographic areas in August 2013. Despite the two stage release plans, the National totals will not change, to avoid confusion amongst stakeholders.

National level population estimates at 30 June 2011 will be published in Australian Demographic Statistics, September quarter 2012 (3101.0) - released in March 2013. Final estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population for 30 June 2011 by state/territory, capital city/balance of state, remoteness area and other sub-state levels are proposed to be released in Population Estimates, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2011 (cat. no. 3238.0.55.001) - released in August 2013. Further, reverse survived estimates (footnote 1) (back to 30 June 2001) based on the 2011 Census and forward projections for various levels of geography, by age and sex will be released in Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2011-2026 (cat. no. 3238.0) in the first half of 2014.

Separate estimates of the Torres Strait Islander population will be available on request after the release of this publication.

The final population estimates for 30 June 2011 will form the population base (or denominator) for the compilation of life tables and life expectancy at birth estimates for the Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Indicative plans are for these life tables and life expectancy estimates to be released by late 2013 in Life Tables for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2010-2012 (cat. no. 3302.0.55.003) pending more detailed stakeholder and user consultation. A detailed communication plan for providing regular updates on release plans for ABS Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander demographic statistics is currently being developed. It is expected that an outline of this communication and work plan will be available by late 2011 and will be distributed to key forums, stakeholders, data users and published as a separate ABS information paper.

Population estimates by country of birth


Final estimates at June 2007 to June 2011 based on the 2011 Census, along with estimates for June 2006, for Australia, are proposed to be released in Migration, Australia 2012-13 (cat. no. 3412.0) due for release by mid-2014.

Population estimates by age and sex

The following population estimates are proposed to be compiled by age and sex based on the 2011 Census of Population and Housing and made available during 2012 and 2013. All population estimates will be available by age and sex on the ABS website.


TABLE 4. AVAILABILITY OF POPULATION ESTIMATES ON DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHIES, AND LEVEL OF AGE-SEX BREAKDOWN

PopulationGeographyAge/sex breakdown available (a)
Total population AustraliaSingle year of age up to 104 years, then 105 years and over
Total population States and territoriesSingle year of age up to 84 years, then five year age groups up to 95-99 years, then 100 years and over
Total populationSA2, SLA and LGAFive year age groups up to 80-84 years, then 85 and over
Australian Aboriginal and Torres
Strait Islander peoples
States and territories and AustraliaFive year age groups up to 80-84 years, then 85 years and over for NSW, Vic., Qld, SA, WA, NT; and five year age-groups up to 60-64 years, then 65 years and over for Tas. and ACT.
Australian Aboriginal and Torres
Strait Islander peoples (b)
Sub-state geography in ASGSFive year age groups up to 60-64 years, then 65 years and over
Australian Aboriginal and Torres
Strait Islander peoples, and
remainder of population
Remoteness areas (Major Cities, Inner and Outer Regional combined, and Remote and Very Remote combined) by state and territory
Five year age groups up to 70-74 years, then 75 years and over
Total Australian population by
(selected) country of birth
States and territories and AustraliaFive year age groups up to 70-74 years, then 75 years and over

(a) Top age aggregate and extent of age disaggregation for higher ages are subject to change depending on the quality of the age reporting for higher age groups in the 2011 Census results. The ABS will calculate single year of age estimates, however only estimates assessed as having acceptable quality will be published or available on request. For Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, specific examination of the quality of single year of age estimates will be undertaken and if possible, single year of age estimates up to age 24 years may be published or available on request.

(b) The ABS is considering the range of recommendations arising from a 2011 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Demographic Statistics Stakeholder Consultation Review including the geographic disaggregation of population estimates. Further information on release plans is to be advised.

Note: the table above shows data published on the ABS website. More detailed data may be available on request.

1. Reverse survived estimates refers to use of data from censuses or life tables to estimate past populations (a variation of the life table survival ratio method). For further information please refer to Popoff, C, & Judson, D. H, (2004), Some methods of estimation for statistically underdeveloped areas, in J. Siegel & D. Swanson (eds.), The Methods and Materials of Demography (pp.603-641). London: Elsevier Academic Press, p.624.


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